AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The euro edged higher against the dollar and was little changed against sterling in early trade in Europe on Wednesday, with two big diary events looming large over the market. At 04:00 AM ET (0800 GMT), the euro was at $1.1271, up around 0.1% from late Tuesday in Europe. The pound was at $1.3076 against the dollar and 1.1602 against the euro, still stuck in the tight range of recent sessions. he dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.565, down fractionally from late Tuesday. The emergency European Union summit on Brexit appears likely to agree some form of extension to the U.K.’s date for leaving the bloc, but the terms it will require are still uncertain, after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s visits to Paris and Berlin on Tuesday failed to gain approval for her proposal of a short delay until June 30. The day’s other big event in Europe is the European Central Bank’s regular meeting, brought forward by a day to allow policymakers to get to Washington DC in time for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meeting. On Wednesday, the IMF cut its forecast for world growth this year to the lowest since 2009, a mere 3.3%, due not least to a slowdown in the euro zone that the ECB is under pressure to stop. No policy action is expected this week, but market participants will be anxious to hear more detail about the possibility of ‘tiering’ the penalty rate on deposits at the ECB, a step that would allow the bank to cut its official interest rates again without hurting the already weak profitability of euro zone banks. They’ll also want to hear more about the new long-term loans that are due to start in September, and about whether the ECB wants to use them to increase overall liquidity (thereby loosening monetary conditions), or merely to stop it falling. Elsewhere, the dollar drifted lower against the Aussie and kiwi overnight, and was also off recent highs against the Turkish lira ahead of an important update on policy reform by Finance Minister Berat Albayrak.
  • Gold prices were little changed near the prior session's two-week high on Wednesday, as market players looked ahead to the release of U.S. inflation data as well as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting. The Commerce Department will publish inflation figures for March at 8:30AM ET (12:30 GMT). Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.3% last month, according to estimates. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation prices are forecast to have risen 0.2% last month. The Fed will then release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting later in the session. The U.S. central bank all but swore off raising interest rates again this year at the conclusion of its March 20 meeting and indicated it intends to end the reduction of its massive $4.2 trillion balance sheet by September. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.56, not far from Tuesday's two-week low of 96.46. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury prices inched higher, pushing yields slightly lower across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year yield slipping to 2.49%. Traders will also monitor headlines out of Europe, with the European Central Bank holding its policy meeting and as British Prime Minister Theresa May seeks a second delay to Brexit at an emergency summit in Brussels. Gold prices rallied on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth outlook and as President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $11 billion of European goods. The precious metal is used as a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty.
  • Venezuela told OPEC that the country's oil output sank to a new long-term low last month due to U.S. sanctions and blackouts, deepening the impact of a global production curb and further tightening supplies. Supply cuts by OPEC and partners led by Russia, plus involuntary curbs in Venezuela and Iran, have helped drive a 32 percent rally in crude prices this year, prompting pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for the group to ease its market-supporting efforts. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Venezuela told the group that it pumped 960,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, a drop of almost 500,000 bpd from February. The figures could add to a debate within the so-called OPEC+ group of producers on whether to maintain oil supply cuts beyond June. A Russian official indicated this week Moscow wanted to pump more, although OPEC has been saying the curbs must remain. OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers are reducing output by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1 for six months. The producers are due to meet on June 25-26 to decide whether to extend the pact. One of the key Russian officials to foster the pact with OPEC, Kirill Dmitriev, signaled on Monday that Russia wanted to raise output when it meets OPEC in June because of improving market conditions and falling stockpiles. In a development that will ease OPEC concern about a new supply glut, the report on Wednesday said oil inventories in developed economies fell in February, after rising in January.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,309 1,316-1,325 1,333
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 64.50-65.00 65.60 66.20
EURO/USD 1.1270-1.1305 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 111.90-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,300-1,294 1,284 1,276-1,269
Silver-XAG 15.00 14.75 14.50-14.00
Crude Oil 64.00-63.60 63.00 62.50-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1230-1.1175 1.1150 1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.00-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (10th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1306.12/oz and low of US$1296.56/oz. Gold up by 0.506% at US$1303.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1300-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1309-1316 and 1325-1333. Sell below 1309-1335 keeping stop loss closing above 1335, targeting 1300-1294-1286 and 1276-1269.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,300-1,294
S2     1,284
S3     1,276-1,269
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,309
R2     1,316-1,325
R3     1,333

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.900

Buy
20-DMA   1301.44 Sell
50-DMA  

1307.30

Sell
100-DMA   1285.09 Buy
200-DMA   1249.28 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.988 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.32/oz and low of US$15.19/oz. Silver settled up by 0.001% at US$15.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.00-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.00
S2     14.75
S3     14.50-14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   40.671 Buy
20-DMA   15.27 Sell
50-DMA   15.53 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Buy
200-DMA   15.04 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   18.240 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$64.68/bbl, intraday low of US$63.62/bbl and settled down by 0.202% to close at US$64.17/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.50-66.20 with stop loss at 66.20; targeting 63.60-63.00-62.50 and 62.00-61.60. Buy above 63.60-61.60 with risk daily closing below 61.60 and targeting 64.50-65.00 and 65.60-66.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.00-63.60
S2     63.00
S3     62.50-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.50-65.00
R2     65.60
R3     66.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   78.080 Sell
20-DMA   60.63 Buy
50-DMA   57.59 Buy
100-DMA   54.18 Buy
200-DMA   61.20 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   96.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.835 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1254/EUR, high of US$1.1283/EUR and settled the day up by 0.017% to close at US$1.1261/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1230-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1270-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380. Sell below 1.1270-1.1400 targeting 1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1230-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1270-1.1305
R2     1.1330
R3     1.1350-1.1380

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.339 Buy
20-DMA   1.1281 Sell
50-DMA   1.1314 Sell
100-DMA   1.1350 Sell
200-DMA   1.1455 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3029/GBP, high of US$1.3120/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0689% to close at US$1.3048/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3156 Sell
50-DMA   1.3092 Sell
100-DMA   1.2931 Buy
200-DMA   1.2976 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY110.97/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.57/USD and settled the day down by 0.125% at JPY111.13/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.00-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     111.90-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.800 Buy
20-DMA   111.06 Buy
50-DMA   110.77 Buy
100-DMA   110.97 Buy
200-DMA   111.48 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   79.080 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.165 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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