AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares neared nine-month highs on Monday after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he hoped U.S.-China trade talks were approaching a final lap, while strong Chinese export and bank loan data boosted confidence in the global economy. The consequent improvement in risk appetite resulted in the dollar easing against other major currencies. The rally follows on from strong finish on Wall Street on Friday as investors cheered Chinese data showing exports rebounded in March to a five-month high while new bank loans jumped by far more than expected. Investors also welcomed positive headlines on the Sino-U.S. trade talk as well. On Saturday, Mnuchin said a U.S.-China trade agreement would go “way beyond” previous efforts to open China’s markets to U.S. companies and hoped that the two sides were “close to the final round” of negotiations. Further whetting risk appetite, Reuters exclusively reported on Monday that U.S. negotiators have tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing. Investors have been fretting about a global growth slowdown this year as trade disputes and tighter financial conditions hit demand. Worryingly, the International Monetary Fund cut its outlook for the world economy for the third time in six months. There have also been fears that weakness in key economies, including China, could spread to other countries, especially if elevated trade tensions between Beijing and Washington escalated further. As a result, the Group of 20 industrialized nations have called for a trade truce, signaling world leaders are prepared to take action to curtail risks of a global economic slowdown. Investors are next looking to China’s March-quarter gross domestic product data due Wednesday. A Reuters poll predicted it would show growth slowing 6.3 percent from a year earlier, the weakest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago All eyes are also on corporate earnings from major U.S. companies after quarterly results from JPMorgan handily beat analyst estimates last week.
  • The U.S. dollar edged down on Monday in Asia after the University of Michigan reported on Friday that U.S. consumer sentiment was below expectations. The Michigan Consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 96.9, well below expectations for a reading of 98.1, following two-straight months that saw gains above expectations. The data is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to divert from its wait-and-see approach to monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan is trading slightly lower against the U.S. dollar even after Washington softened demands in the trade deal, Reuters reported on Monday, noting that US negotiators have tempered demands that China curbs industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade agreement. On Friday, China released stronger-than-expected trade and credit data that showed exports rebounded last month, easing concerns of a global economic growth slowdown. Data on fixed asset investment, industrial production and first quarter growth are set to be released on Wednesday. This is a holiday-shortened week, with most major financial markets closed on Friday for the start of the Easter holidays. The yen hovered near its lowest level this year on Monday as more signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy and an upbeat start to the U.S. earnings season prompted investors to abandon the safe-haven currency to seek higher returns elsewhere. Chinese data published on Friday showed exports rebounded sharply and new bank loans increased far more than expected in March. Although China's imports remained weak, the data on the whole cemented hopes that the Chinese economy is bottoming out after a soft patch as Beijing has curbed de-leveraging efforts and stepped up support for the economy in recent months. Many market players would need to see a few months of data to confirm the strength of the Chinese economy, Suzuki said, adding that uncertainties still remain on U.S.-china trade talks and Brexit. The more positive mood helped offset any concerns about upcoming trade talks between the United States and Japan, in which Washington is expected to include a currency provision in a bilateral trade agreement. But Uchida also believes the dollar's upside may be limited, given that speculators have already built up large long positions in the U.S. currency. Data from U.S. watchdog on Friday showed speculators bolstered their net long U.S. dollar position in the latest week, pushing it to the highest since December 2015.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday in Asia but still surged by more than 30% year-to-date. The Libya conflict is back under the spotlight today. Year-to-date, U.S. crude is up 41% while the U.K. benchmark shows a 32% rise, supported by production cuts led by the OPEC.OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers have been reducing output by 1.2 million bpd since the beginning of 2019. The producers are due to meet in June to decide whether to extend the pact. In an earlier report, Reuters cited an OPEC source that said oil producers might decide to end their output cuts during the meeting if he Libya, Venezuelan and Iranian supply crises weren’t resolved by then. In other news, the U.S. oil rig count, published by industry firm Baker Hughes, rose by two units this week after last week's 15-rig climb. Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in its weekly supply-demand report that production had reached a new high of 12.2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the Libyan conflict remained in focus as reports on Friday suggested that renegade Libyan general Khalifa Haftar had vowed to wipe out the North African country's oil production if he gained control of the capital, Tripoli. The North African country, which produces about 1.1 million barrels per day of oil, has been vulnerable since the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gadaffi. Haftar’s forces control more than 40% of Libya’s oilfields and the key ports that export its crude.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1.316-1.325
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 64.20-65.00 65.60 66.20
EURO/USD 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00112.00-112.50 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284 1,276-1,269 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 63.60 63.00 62.50-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1260 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (15th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1295.72/oz and low of US$1290.05/oz. Gold down by 0.145% at US$1290.56/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1284-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1294-1335 keeping stop loss closing above 1335, targeting 1286-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284
S2     1,276-1,269
S3     1,260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1.316-1.325

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.959

Buy
20-DMA   1301.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1306.31

Sell
100-DMA   1286.51 Buy
200-DMA   1249.67 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.10/oz and low of US$14.93/oz. Silver settled up by 0.187% at US$14.96/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.368 Buy
20-DMA   15.20 Sell
50-DMA   15.41 Sell
100-DMA   15.25 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$64.65/bbl, intraday low of US$63.66/bbl and settled up by 0.120% to close at US$63.84/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.20-66.20 with stop loss at 66.20; targeting 63.60-63.00-62.50 and 62.00-61.60. Buy above 63.60-61.60 with risk daily closing below 61.60 and targeting 64.50-65.00 and 65.60-66.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.60
S2     63.00
S3     62.50-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.20-65.00
R2     65.60
R3     66.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.111 Sell
20-DMA   61.64 Buy
50-DMA   58.32 Buy
100-DMA   54.55 Buy
200-DMA   61.03 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   51.923 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.747 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1249/EUR, high of US$1.1323/EUR and settled the day up by 0.417% to close at US$1.1298/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1290-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1330-1.1400 targeting 1.1290-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1260
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330
R2     1.1350-1.1380
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.006 Buy
20-DMA   1.1276 Sell
50-DMA   1.1306 Sell
100-DMA   1.1347 Sell
200-DMA   1.1452 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3049/GBP, high of US$1.3132/GBP and settled the day up by 0.145% to close at US$1.3070/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3156 Sell
50-DMA   1.3092 Sell
100-DMA   1.2931 Buy
200-DMA   1.2976 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.58/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.08/USD and settled the day up by 0.333% at JPY112.01/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 11.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00112.00-112.50
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   888.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

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