AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks hovered below a nine-month high on Tuesday after disappointing bank earnings dented Wall Street, though recent signs that the global economy is likely to avoid a sharper downturn helped limit the losses. The index had risen to its highest level since July 2018 the previous day after strong export and banking data from China last week eased investors' concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy. Expectations that Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators would strike a deal soon also lifted market confidence The U.S.-China trade dispute, signs of slowing global corporate earnings and business investment have all put pressure on riskier assets in the past year, so investors have been quick to lap up positive news. Wall Street lost ground on Monday, dragged down as underwhelming bank earnings curbed investor enthusiasm. But while all three major U.S. stock indexes edged lower, the S&P 500 remained within a percent of its record high. (N) Many investors are waiting on Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) data due on Wednesday for clues on the health of Asia's giant economy, a major pressure point for global growth over the past year. A Reuters poll forecast China's first-quarter growth to have cooled to 6.3 percent on-year, the weakest pace in at least 27 years, but a flurry of measures to boost domestic demand may have put a floor under slowing activity in March.
  • Major currencies remained confined to well-trodden ranges on Tuesday, as markets look next to European and Chinese data for more evidence that the worst may be over for the global economy. The data in focus includes Germany's ZEW economic index for April, due around 0900 GMT, and China's gross domestic product set for Wednesday, which is expected to offer more insight on the health of the world's second-largest economy. Chinese exports and credit data last week signaled some stabilization, prompting markets to adjust their outlook on global growth. Market participants eyed European manufacturing data due on Thursday for cues on whether growth in that region is improving. Investors also kept their focus on trade issues, including talks between Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Motegi said late on Monday both sides had confirmed that new bilateral trade talks would proceed based on the two nations' joint statement issued last September. Motegi and Lighthizer are slated to continue their talks on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend he hoped Sino-U.S. trade negotiations were close to their final round. Reuters reported on Sunday that U.S. negotiators had tempered demands that China curb industrial subsidies as a condition for a trade deal after strong resistance from Beijing.
  • Prices of the safe-haven gold fell on Tuesday in Asia amid more positive developments in the Sino-U.S. trade talks. Mnuchin told Fox Business Network on Monday negotiations were “making a lot of progress.” The two sides have agreed on an enforcement mechanism to police any trade deal they agree on in the future, according to reports last week. Meanwhile, Japan and the U.S. kicked off the first round of trade negotiations in Washington on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump and Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed last September to hold trade talks in an arrangement that protects Japanese automakers from further tariffs. In the past, Trump has made clear he is unhappy with Japan’s $68 billion trade surplus with the U.S Recent upbeat economic data also boosted risk sentiment. China reported better-than-expected credit and export figures last week while jobs data from the U.S. showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a 49-1/2-year low. In the U.K., Brexit headlines are expected to quiet down over the coming week with parliament on holiday until April 23. The U.K. had originally been due to leave the EU on March 29, but the deadline has since been extended multiple times.
  • Oil prices traded lower on Tuesday in Asia on reports that Russia wants to end the current deal on output restraint in June. Oil prices jumped more than 30% so far in 2019, mainly due to a deal by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to curb oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day from January for six months. Moscow has in the past indicated reluctance to continue with output cuts beyond June, given its worries about losing market share to U.S. crude if it were to extend those cuts. Instead, Russia and the OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the U.S., Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said over the weekend. The move could send oil prices to as low as $40 per barrel, Reuters said citing analysts. The OPEC and its allies will meet in June to decide whether to continue withholding supply. In other news, the Paris-based International Energy Agency pointed out in its monthly report last week that demand was a “very important” piece of the equation for oil market rebalancing and there was much uncertainty now with the less-than-stellar outlook for the global economy. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said over the weekend that Russia and OPEC may decide to boost production to fight for market share with the United States, but this would push oil as low as $40 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will meet in June to decide whether to continue withholding supply. That comes after they previously agreed to crimp output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 for six months U.S. crude oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by about 80,000 bpd in May to a record 8.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report. However, losses in oil prices were checked by tighter supplies from Iran and Venezuela amid signs the United States will further toughen sanctions on those two OPEC producers, and on the threat that renewed fighting could wipe out crude production in Libya.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,294-1,300 1,309 1,316-1,25
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 63.60 64.20-65.00 65.60
EURO/USD 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,284 1,276-1,269 1,260
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 63.00 62.50-62.00 61.50
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1260 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (16th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1291.87/oz and low of US$1282.47/oz. Gold down by 0.257% at US$1287.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1284-1261 with risk below 1261, targeting 1294-1300-1309 and 1316-1325. Sell below 1294-1335 keeping stop loss closing above 1335, targeting 1286-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,284
S2     1,276-1,269
S3     1,260
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,294-1,300
R2     1,309
R3     1,316-1,25

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.959

Buy
20-DMA   1301.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1306.31

Sell
100-DMA   1286.51 Buy
200-DMA   1249.67 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.02/oz and low of US$14.83/oz. Silver settled up by 0.066% at US$14.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.368 Buy
20-DMA   15.20 Sell
50-DMA   15.41 Sell
100-DMA   15.25 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$63.91/bbl, intraday low of US$63.16/bbl and settled down by 0.313% to close at US$63.66/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.00
S2     62.50-62.00
S3     61.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.60
R2     64.20-65.00
R3     65.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.921 Sell
20-DMA   61.85 Buy
50-DMA   58.51 Buy
100-DMA   54.68 Buy
200-DMA   60.98 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   32.923 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.660 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1320/EUR, high of US$1.1303/EUR and settled the day up by 0.004% to close at US$1.1302/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1290-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1330-1.1400 targeting 1.1290-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1260
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330
R2     1.1350-1.1380
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.006 Buy
20-DMA   1.1276 Sell
50-DMA   1.1306 Sell
100-DMA   1.1347 Sell
200-DMA   1.1452 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.068/GBP, high of US$1.3118/GBP and settled the day up by 0.177% to close at US$1.3093/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3156 Sell
50-DMA   1.3092 Sell
100-DMA   1.2931 Buy
200-DMA   1.2976 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY110.55/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.90/USD and settled the day up by 0.0081% at JPY110.67/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 11.40-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

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