AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share markets pulled ahead on Wednesday as investors were relieved after a raft of Chinese data beat expectations in a sign Beijing’s policy stimulus may finally be gaining traction in the world’s second-largest economy. Indications for Europe and Wall Street, however, suggested a mixed opening session. In early European trades, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures and German DAX futures were mostly unchanged while London’s FTSE futures was a shade weaker. E-minis for the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. Moves in Asian share markets were modest in part because they had already rallied hard since the start of the year. Investors have been counting on better news from China and were not disappointed with first-quarter economic growth pipping forecast at 6.4 percent. Importantly industrial output surged 8.5 percent in March from a year earlier, the fastest pace since July 2014 and well above forecasts of a 5.9 percent increase. Retail sales also pleased with a rise of 8.7 percent. Investors reacted by buying the Australian dollar, often a liquid proxy for China plays, which pushed up 0.3 percent to a two-month top at $0.7206. One currency on the move was the New Zealand dollar which sank as far as $0.6668 after annual consumer price inflation came in well below expectations at just 1.5 percent for the first quarter. Yields on two-year bonds dived 9 basis points to 1.48 percent as investors wagered the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would have to cut rates in response.
  • The Australian dollar gained on Wednesday in Asia after China, its biggest trading partner, reported strong GDP data. China’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2019, beating the expected growth rate of 6.3%. Industrial output and retail sales were also stronger than expected. Yesterday, data showed housing prices in China rose at the fastest pace since 2017 in March. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, told CNBC earlier this week that he would be “comfortable” with interest rates staying put until the autumn of 2020 to help ensure inflation returns to the Fed’s target rate of 2%. he dollar was broadly lower in early trading in Europe on Wednesday after China’s slightly faster-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter encouraged a new leg up in commodity currencies. Earlier, China’s statistics office had said gross domestic product grew 6.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, a touch above the 6.3% expected. That was due to signs of a strong recovery in both industrial production and retail sales in March, suggesting that the two key pillars of China’s economy are both responding to government stimulus measures and now regaining momentum. The euro also rebounded after sliding on Tuesday and traded back above $1.1300 by the European morning. Sterling continued to drift as the parliamentary recess stopped any significant progress in the Brexit drama. The dollar has, however, risen against both the yen and the kiwi. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told CNBC that he still sees potential to ease monetary policy further, while lower-than-expected inflation data emboldened those who think that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next rate move will be downward.
  • Oil prices rose for a second day on Wednesday on signs of strong demand from refineries in China, the world's second-largest crude user, amid tightening supply as producers curtail output and as oil inventories in the United States fell unexpectedly. China's refinery throughput in March rose 3.2 percent from a year earlier to 53.04 million tonnes, or 12.49 million barrels per day (bpd), data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. The data also showed its economy in the first quarter expanded by 6.4 percent compared to a year earlier. The steady demand growth in China is occurring as a deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, to limit their output by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 has curtailed global supplies. Crude oil supply has also declined this year as the United States has imposed economic sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. The tightening supply and demand fundamentals have pushed WTI up more than 40 percent this year and Brent up by more than 30 percent. In June, OPEC and its partners will decide whether to continue to curb their production, although concerns have arisen over Russia's willingness to stick with the cuts An unexpected fall in U.S. crude inventories also supported higher oil prices. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels in the week ended April 12 to 452.7 million, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) released on Tuesday. Official data on U.S. inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to be released on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,284 1,294-1,300 1,309
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 65.00-65.60 66.40 67.00
EURO/USD 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3100-1.3150 1.3200 1.3250-1.3300
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,269 1,260 1,251
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 64.20-63.60 63.00 62.50-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1260 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3050-1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (17th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1288.65/oz and low of US$1272.90/oz. Gold down by 0.849% at US$1276.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1276-1251 with risk below 1251, targeting 1284-1294-1300 and 1309-1316. Sell below 1284-1335 keeping stop loss closing above 1335, targeting 1286-1276 and 1269-1261.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,276-1,269
S2     1,260
S3     1,251
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,284
R2     1,294-1,300
R3     1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.045

Buy
20-DMA   1296.95 Sell
50-DMA  

1304.48

Sell
100-DMA   1288.20 Buy
200-DMA   1250.03 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   14.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.00/oz and low of US$14.87/oz. Silver settled up by 0.146% at US$14.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.368 Buy
20-DMA   15.20 Sell
50-DMA   15.41 Sell
100-DMA   15.25 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$64.44/bbl, intraday low of US$63.10/bbl and settled down by 1.193% to close at US$64.42/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.00-67.00 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting 64.20-63.60-63.00 and 62.50-62.00. Buy above 64.20-61.60 with risk daily closing below 61.60 and targeting 65.00-65.60 and 66.40-67.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.20-63.60
S2     63.00
S3     62.50-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.00-65.60
R2     66.40
R3     67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.825 Sell
20-DMA   62.13 Buy
50-DMA   58.74 Buy
100-DMA   54.82 Buy
200-DMA   60.95 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   71.923 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.720 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1279/EUR, high of US$1.1313/EUR and settled the day down by 0.203% to close at US$1.1279/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1290-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1330-1.1400 targeting 1.1290-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1260
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330
R2     1.1350-1.1380
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50,006 Buy
20-DMA   1.1276 Sell
50-DMA   1.1306 Sell
100-DMA   1.1347 Sell
200-DMA   1.1452 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3041/GBP, high of US$1.3100/GBP and settled the day down by 0.374% to close at US$1.3045/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3050-1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3100-1.3150
R2     1.3200
R3     1.3250-1.3300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3156 Sell
50-DMA   1.3092 Sell
100-DMA   1.2931 Buy
200-DMA   1.2976 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.84/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.03/USD and settled the day down by 0.0428% at JPY111.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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