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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares dipped on Thursday amid subdued trade after losses on Wall Street and some profit-taking ahead of a long Easter weekend. The U.S. trade deficit fell to an eight-month low in February as imports from China plunged, data on Wednesday showed. Separate figures from China earlier on Wednesday showed the world’s second-largest economy grew at a steady 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter, defying forecasts for a slowdown. Attention is now turning to how much more stimulus Beijing will apply without triggering more financial risks. Investors’ immediate focus turned to the release of Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for the manufacturing and service sectors in Europe later on Thursday to provide more clues on strength of the euro zone economy. Japanese manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower pace in April thanks to a pick-up in hiring, a flash PMI survey showed, but new export orders fell at the fastest pace in almost three years in a sign slow global demand remains a major pressure point. Washington and Beijing set a tentative timeline for a fresh round of face-to-face meetings ahead of a possible signing ceremony in late May or early June, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
  • The Federal Reserve may need to buy more government bonds than it did before the 2008 financial crisis and conduct other money-market operations to implement its current approach to managing U.S. interest rates, an official of the New York Fed said on Wednesday. The Fed this year decided to indefinitely manage short-term interest rates by tweaking the interest it pays banks on excess money they keep at the central bank using a process that requires the Fed to keep more bank capital on hand than it did prior to the global financial crisis. After the crisis, the Fed bulked up its holdings by buying Treasuries using bank reserves it created. Eventually it started letting bonds and reserves decline to bring policy back to normal. In March, Fed officials decided to stop letting those bond holdings decline by September. To keep control of rates, officials will eventually have to start buying bonds again and building up bank reserves. Logan is the head of market operations monitoring and analysis at the New York Fed, which implements the Fed’s monetary policies by trading in the market and managing the central bank’s portfolio. She said the possibility of the Fed’s adopting a program that would let banks convert Treasuries to reserves on demand, known as a standing repo facility, is a discussion “really in its early stages.” In recent weeks U.S. banks have occasionally paid more to borrow reserves from each other than what the Fed pays.
  • The euro edged higher for a second straight day on Thursday, but gains were tiny before manufacturing survey data that should shed some light on the outlook for the European economy. Recent data out of Europe have indicated an economy struggling to grow, prompting policymakers to push into 2020 the timing for their first interest rate increase and investors to shed their euro holdings. But the PMI data might provide some relief to investors. Data this week from China, a big source of demand for European factories, has indicated growing signs of strength in the world's second-biggest economy. China's economy grew 6.4 percent in the first quarter, defying expectations for a further slowdown. Industrial production and consumer demand showed signs of improving. The euro is trading sideways against the dollar early Thursday in Europe, awaiting what are likely to be market-moving business surveys from around the region. Preliminary purchasing managers’ indexes from IHS Markit are due at staggered intervals, with the euro zone manufacturing and composite PMIs due at 04:00 AM ET (0800 GMT). Economists are forecasting that the manufacturing PMI will stabilize after sliding from over 60 at the start of 2018 to below 48 in March, well in contraction territory. The consensus estimate is for an uptick to 47.9 from 47.5. The main risk to that forecast appears still to be in Germany: the Current Conditions of the ZEW economic sentiment index continued to decline this month, despite an upturn in expectations.
  • Oil markets fell on Thursday despite a surprise decline in U.S. inventories, but the price drops were tempered by a smaller-than-expected reduction in gasoline stocks and ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts. U.S. crude inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week to April 12, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels, Department of Energy (DoE) data showed on Wednesday Gasoline stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels, less than analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1 million-barrel drop. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 362,000 barrels, also not as much as forecasts for a 846,000-barrel drawdown, the EIA data showed. Graphic: U.S. crude inventories, weekly changes since 2017, Prices have been supported this year by an agreement reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, to limit their oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day. Global supply has also been tightened further by U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. Iran's crude exports have dropped in April to their lowest daily level this year, tanker data showed and industry sources said, suggesting a drawdown in buyer interest ahead of expected further pressure from Washington. Growing U.S. oil production and concerns over the U.S.- China trade dispute are keeping prices in check. U.S. crude oil output from seven major shale formations was expected to rise by about 80,000 bpd in May to a record 8.46 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly report on Monday. Surging U.S. production has filled some of the gap in supplies, although not all of the lost production can be immediately replaced by U.S. shale oil due to refinery configurations.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,284 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 64.20-65.00 65.60 66.40-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1330 1.1350-1.1380 1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3150-1.3100 1.3150 1.3200-1.3250
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,269-1,260 1,251 1,244
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 63.60 63.00 62.50-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1260 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.3010 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (18th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1279.72/oz and low of US$1272.95/oz. Gold down by 0.220% at US$1273.86/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1269-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1276-1284-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1276-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,269-1,260
S2     1,251
S3     1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,276-1,284
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.045

Buy
20-DMA   1294.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1303.65

Sell
100-DMA   1288.74 Buy
200-DMA   1250.10 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$15.08/oz and low of US$14.91/oz. Silver settled up by 0.0668% at US$14.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.368 Buy
20-DMA   15.20 Sell
50-DMA   15.41 Sell
100-DMA   15.25 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$64.69/bbl, intraday low of US$63.73/bbl and settled down by 0.947% to close at US$63.79/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.00-67.00 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting 64.20-63.60-63.00 and 62.50-62.00. Buy above 64.20-61.60 with risk daily closing below 61.60 and targeting 65.00-65.60 and 66.40-67.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.60
S2     63.00
S3     62.50-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.20-65.00
R2     65.60
R3     66.40-67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.442 Sell
20-DMA   62.28 Buy
50-DMA   58.94 Buy
100-DMA   54.92 Buy
200-DMA   60.90 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   55.923 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.720 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1278/EUR, high of US$1.1323/EUR and settled the day up by 0.203% to close at US$1.1293/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1290-1.1150 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1330-1.1400 targeting 1.1290-1.1250-1.1200 and 1.1175-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1260
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330
R2     1.1350-1.1380
R3     1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50,006 Buy
20-DMA   1.1276 Sell
50-DMA   1.1306 Sell
100-DMA   1.1347 Sell
200-DMA   1.1452 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3041/GBP, high of US$1.3118/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0613% to close at US$1.3093/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3100-1.3300 with targets at 1.3050-1.3010-1.2980 and 1.2900-1.2850 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3070-1.2850 with targets 1.3150-1.3200 and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010
S2     1.2981
S3     1.2900-1.2850

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3150-1.3100
R2     1.3150
R3     1.3200-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3156 Sell
50-DMA   1.3092 Sell
100-DMA   1.2931 Buy
200-DMA   1.2976 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.91/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.15/USD and settled the day down by 0.064% at JPY112.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

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