AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slipped on Monday, weighed down by underperforming Chinese stocks, while oil prices rallied on news the United States is likely to ask all importers of Iranian oil to end their purchases or face sanctions. Brent and U.S. crude futures surged to nearly six-month highs on news reports that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will announce “that as of May 2, the State Department will no longer grant sanctions waivers to any country that is currently importing Iranian crude or condensate.” The potential disruption to Iranian supplies are expected to add to an already tight oil market. Following the Good Friday holiday, markets in Britain, Germany and France will remain closed for Easter Monday, while those in the United States will reopen. Asian equities dipped after Chinese stocks retreated from a 13-month high as comments from top policymaking bodies raised investor fears that Beijing will slow the pace of policy easing after some signs of stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. The U.S. reimposed sanctions in November on exports of Iranian oil after President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers. Washington is pressuring Iran to curtail its nuclear program and stop backing militant proxies across the Middle East.
  • The dollar edged up against key peers such as the euro and the yen on Monday, boosted by the relative strength of the U.S. economy, while losing ground against the Canadian dollar following a rise in crude oil prices. Financial markets in Australia, Hong Kong and many major countries in Europe are closed on Monday for the Easter holiday. Currency trading continues globally but volume is expected to be light. The dollar was lackluster against the loonie as crude oil prices rose more than 2 percent following a Washington Post report the United States is likely to ask all importers of Iranian oil to end their purchases or will be subject to U.S. sanctions. The greenback has found support in recent weeks on the back of a gradual rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and signs of strength in the world's top economy, including better-than-expected retail sales in March, following a weak start to the year. Investors' immediate focus will be on U.S. existing home sales for March, due at 1400 GMT, for further clues on the health of the U.S. economy. In February, U.S. home sales surged to their highest in 11 months, as the housing market showed renewed momentum following a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The euro gave up nearly 0.1 percent to $1.1240, adding to last week's losses of nearly half a percent after data on Thursday showed that activity in Germany's manufacturing sector shrank for a fourth straight month in April. Starting on Saturday, on Japan will have an unprecedented 10-day holiday from late April to early May to mark the ascension of the new emperor, Crown Prince Naruhito. Daiwa's Ishizuki said he expected currency trading by Japanese investors to remain relatively light as traders and companies are shifting into holiday mode.
  • Oil prices jumped on Monday as the United States looked set to announce that all buyers of Iranian oil must end their imports or be subject to sanctions. News that the United States is preparing to announce on Monday that current buyers of Iranian oil would no longer be given waivers to sanctions was first reported on Sunday by the Washington Post. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will announce "that, as of May 2, the State Department will no longer grant sanctions waivers to any country that is currently importing Iranian crude or condensate", a columnist for the newspaper said, citing two State Department officials that he did not name. A person familiar with the situation confirmed to Reuters that the report was accurate, although a State Department spokesman declined to comment. Prior to the re-imposition of sanctions, Iran was the fourth-largest producer among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at almost 3 million barrels per day (bpd), but April exports have shrunk well below 1 million bpd, according to ship tracking and analyst data in Refinitiv. The United States put the sanctions back on Iranian oil exports after President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers. Washington, however, granted Iran's eight main buyers of oil, mostly in Asia, waivers to the sanctions which allowed them limited purchases for six months. Iran's biggest oil customers are China and India, who have both been lobbying for extensions to sanction waivers. Removing the sanctions exemptions would reduce oil supply from a market that is already tight because of U.S. sanctions against Iran and fellow OPEC-member Venezuela. Additionally, OPEC, along with other global oil producers, have already imposed supply cuts since the start of the year aimed at tightening global oil markets and propping up prices. As a result, Brent prices have risen by more than a third this year, while WTI has climbed more than 40 percent over the same period. The United States is expected to announce on Monday that buyers of Iranian oil need to end imports soon or face sanctions, a source familiar with the situation told Reuters, triggering a 3 percent jump in crude prices to their highest for 2019 so far.The source confirmed a report by the Washington Post that the administration will terminate the sanctions waivers it granted to some importers of Iranian oil late last year. U.S. President Donald Trump wants to end the waivers to exert "maximum economic pressure" on Iran by cutting off its oil exports and reducing its main revenue source to zero. In November, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on exports of Iranian oil after President Trump unilaterally pulled out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and six world powers. Washington, however, granted waivers to Iran's eight main buyers - China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece - that allowed them limited purchases for six months.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,284 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 64.20-65.00 65.60 66.40-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1330 1.1350 1.1380-1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.3060 1.3100 1.3150-1.3200
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,269-1,260 1,251 1,244
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 63.60 63.00 62.50-62.00
EURO/USD 1.1220 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2981 1.2900-1.2850 1.2800
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1277.61/oz and low of US$1271.14/oz. Gold up by 0.143% at US$1275.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1269-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1276-1284-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1276-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,269-1,260
S2     1,251
S3     1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,276-1,284
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.045

Buy
20-DMA   1294.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1303.65

Sell
100-DMA   1288.74 Buy
200-DMA   1250.10 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.01/oz and low of US$14.92/oz. Silver settled up by 0.180% at US$14.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.368 Buy
20-DMA   15.20 Sell
50-DMA   15.41 Sell
100-DMA   15.25 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$64.22/bbl, intraday low of US$63.53/bbl and settled up by 0.344% to close at US$64.03/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 64.20-67.00 with stop loss at 67.00; targeting 63.60-63.00 and 62.50-62.00. Buy above 63.60-61.60 with risk daily closing below 61.60 and targeting 64.20-65.00-65.60 and 66.40-67.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.60
S2     63.00
S3     62.50-62.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     64.20-65.00
R2     65.60
R3     66.40-67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   65.442 Sell
20-DMA   62.28 Buy
50-DMA   58.94 Buy
100-DMA   54.92 Buy
200-DMA   60.90 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   55.923 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.720 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1226/EUR, high of US$1.1247/EUR and settled the day up by 0.203% to close at US$1.1243/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1220-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1280-1.1420 targeting 1.1220-1.1175-1.1150 and 1.1100-1.1070 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1220
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280-1.1330
R2     1.1350
R3     1.1380-1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.393 Buy
20-DMA   1.1252 Sell
50-DMA   1.1292 Sell
100-DMA   1.1343 Sell
200-DMA   1.1438 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2981/GBP, high of US$1.3008/GBP and settled the day up by 0.046% to close at US$1.2990/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3010-1.3300 with targets at 1.2980-1.2900 and 1.2850-1.2800 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3010-1.2850 with targets 1.3010-1.3060-1.3100 and 1.3150-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2981
S2     1.2900-1.2850
S3     1.2800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3010-1.3060
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3150-1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.032

Buy
20-DMA   1.3079 Sell
50-DMA   1.3097 Sell
100-DMA   1.2955 Buy
200-DMA   1.2967 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   6.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0072 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.89/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.00/USD and settled the day down by 0.025% at JPY111.92/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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