AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The dollar eased against a basket of currencies in thin holiday-impacted trading as gold held above a near four-month low on support from the weaker greenback. The United States said it will eliminate all waivers that allowed eight countries to buy Iranian oil without facing U.S. sanctions, demanding that the purchases of Iranian oil stop by May 1. The announcement sent oil prices to 2019 highs.Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose as much as 3.5% a barrel and settled at $74.04 a barrel, up $2.07. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.70 to settle at $65.70 after rising as much as 3% during the session. Another drop in Iranian exports would further squeeze supply in a market already tightened through U.S. sanctions against Iran and fellow OPEC member Venezuela, along with voluntary cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Major financial markets in Europe were closed for Easter Monday, as were markets in Australia and Hong Kong. Overnight in Asia shares slipped, pulled lower by underperforming Chinese stocks that retreated from a 13-month high. Comments from top policy-making bodies raised investor fears that Beijing will slow the pace of policy easing after some signs of stabilization. The greenback has found support in recent weeks on the back of a gradual rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and signs of strength in the world’s top economy, including better-than-expected retail sales in March. The spread between the two- and 10-year note yields, the most common measure of the yield curve, steepens when longer-dated yields rise faster than shorter-dated yields, suggesting bullish investor sentiment.
  • The U.S. dollar traded near flat on Tuesday in Asia as markets await the key first-quarter GDP data due later this week. U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in March amid supply constraints, data released overnight showed. Data last week pointed to an unexpected narrowing of the U.S. trade deficit in February and a rebound in retail sales in March. The reports bolstered expectations that the economy is regaining momentum after a weak start to the year. Investors’ focus this week would be Friday’s data on the country’s first-quarter growth. U.S. housing data, durable goods and consumer sentiment are also due later this week. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair slipped 0.1% to 111.86. Eiji Maeda, Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s executive director overseeing monetary policy, said the central bank is ready to ramp up stimulus if the country’s economy shows signs of weakness. The BOJ could consider multiple easing policies, such as cutting interest rates, boosting asset purchases and accelerating the pace of money printing, he said. The central bank is due to meet this week and is expected to receive some attention as traders look for fresh insights from policymakers on the global economic outlook. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to fly to Washington for more trade talks with U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • Prices of the safe-haven gold failed to sustain early-session gains following news that the U.S. will end Iran sanctions waivers. White House has decided not to extend waivers for all oil buyers that previously allowed them to purchase of some Iranian crude, according to a statement. The announcement stoked risk aversion and sent prices of the precious metal up initially. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the decision to end the waivers was “dramatically escalating our pressure campaign in a calibrated way that meets our national security objectives while maintaining well-supplied global oil markets”. The Trump administration’s objective, Pompeo said, was to prompt Iran to renegotiate the international agreement halting its pursuit of nuclear weapons, halt its ballistic missile tests and end its support for terrorist groups. Gold prices were under pressure last week as investors return to risk-on mode from the rally on Wall Street, upbeat Chinese economic data and improved consumer sentiment in Germany. U.S. existing home sales fell more than expected in March amid supply constraints, data released overnight showed. Looking ahead, Friday’s data on the U.S.’s first-quarter growth is expected to receive some attention. U.S. housing data, durable goods and consumer sentiment are also due later this week. Trade talks between the U.S. and Japan remained in focus as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe flies to Washington this week to meet U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • Oil prices were near 2019 highs on Tuesday after Washington announced all Iran sanction waivers would end by May, pressuring importers to stop buying from Tehran. Despite the move by Washington, observers like U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said global oil markets would be able to cope with the Iran disruption as there was enough spare capacity from other suppliers. The United States on Monday demanded that buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May 1 or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which allowed Iran's eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue importing limited volumes. Before the reimposition of sanctions last year, Iran was the fourth-largest producer among the OPEC at around 3 million barrels per day (bpd), but April exports have shrunk to below 1 million bpd, according to ship tracking and analyst data in Refinitiv. The U.S. government has this year repeatedly said it wants to cut Iran's oil exports below 1 mn bpd or even to zero, and that new action would be taken by May. Still, many analysts expected Washington to show more lenience towards importers most exposed to Iran. Barclay's bank said in a note following the announcement that the decision took many market participants by surprise and that the move would "lead to a significant tightening of oil markets". The British bank added that Washington's target to cut Iran oil exports to zero posed a "material upside risk to our current $70 per barrel average price forecast for Brent this year, compared with the year-to-date average of $65 per barrel". The move to tighten Iran sanctions comes amid other sanctions Washington has placed on Venezuela's oil exports and also as producer club OPEC has led supply cuts since the start of the year aimed at tightening global oil markets and propping up crude prices. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said an expected decline of 900,000 bpd in Iranian exports following the U.S. decision to end all waivers stood "versus immediately available and demonstrated spare capacity of 2.0 mn bpd, which is set to grow further later this year", especially should OPEC end its supply restraint.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,284 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.30-15.60 16.00 16.40-17.00
Crude Oil 66.00-66.50 67.00 67.60-68.50
EURO/USD 1.1280--1.1330 1.1350 1.1380-1.1420
GBP/USD 1.3010-1.3060 1.3100 1.3150-1.3200
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,269-1,260 1,251 1,276-1,284
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.00
Crude Oil 65.60-65.00 64.20 63.60-63.00
EURO/USD 1.1220 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.2900-1.2850 1.2800
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1279.77/oz and low of US$1273.76/oz. Gold down by 0.065% at US$1274.74/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1269-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1276-1284-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1276-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,269-1,260
S2     1,251
S3     1,276-1,284
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,276-1,284
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.922

Buy
20-DMA   1290.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1302.24

Sell
100-DMA   1289.80 Buy
200-DMA   1250.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.06/oz and low of US$14.97/oz. Silver settled up by 0.120% at US$14.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.30-15.60
R2     16.00
R3     16.40-17.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.368 Buy
20-DMA   15.20 Sell
50-DMA   15.41 Sell
100-DMA   15.00 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   16.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$65.96/bbl, intraday low of US$64.05/bbl and settled up by 0.947% to close at US$65.62/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.00-68.50 with stop loss at 68.50; targeting 65.60-65.00-64.20 and 63.60-63.00. Buy above 65.60-63.00 with risk daily closing below 63.00 and targeting 66.00-66.50-67.00 and 67.60-68.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.60-65.00
S2     64.20
S3     63.60-63.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.00-66.50
R2     67.00
R3     67.60-68.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   74.608 Sell
20-DMA   62.97 Buy
50-DMA   59.47 Buy
100-DMA   55.23 Buy
200-DMA   60.86 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.717 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1235/EUR, high of US$1.1261/EUR and settled the day up by 0.151% to close at US$1.1256/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1220-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1280-1.1420 targeting 1.1220-1.1175-1.1150 and 1.1100-1.1070 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1220
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280--1.1330
R2     1.1350
R3     1.1380-1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.393 Buy
20-DMA   1.1252 Sell
50-DMA   1.1292 Sell
100-DMA   1.1343 Sell
200-DMA   1.1438 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2974/GBP, high of US$1.2997/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0616% to close at US$1.2976/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3010-1.3300 with targets at 1.2980-1.2900 and 1.2850-1.2800 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3010-1.2850 with targets 1.3010-1.3060-1.3100 and 1.3150-1.3200 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2970
S2     1.2900-1.2850
S3     1.2800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3010-1.3060
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3150-1.3200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.776

Buy
20-DMA   1.3057 Sell
50-DMA   1.3101 Sell
100-DMA   1.2957 Buy
200-DMA   1.2965 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0035 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.84/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.98/USD and settled the day down by 0.0563% at JPY111.93/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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