AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Equity markets in Asia faltered on Wednesday amid losses in South Korea and uncertainty over China’s plans for further stimulus as the economy shows signs of regaining its footing. Investors shrugged off the government’s proposed supplementary budget aimed in part at supporting exports, and worried after chipmaker Texas Instruments said it expects a slowdown in demand for microchips could last a few more quarters. Chinese equities flitted between gains and losses as investors debated whether Beijing would slow the pace of policy easing following stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth. China’s central bank is likely to pause to assess economic conditions before making any further moves to ease lenders’ reserve requirements, after the growth data reduced the urgency for action, policy insiders sai Equity market gains had been bolstered on Tuesday by rising energy shares after Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit its highest level since Nov. 1. The spread between two- and 10-year Treasury note yields widened to as much as 21.5 basis points on Wednesday morning, a new high for the year. It last stood at 20.6 basis points. The yield curve steepens when longer-dated yields rise faster than shorter-dated yields, suggesting bullish investor sentiment. U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was little changed at 97.355. Overnight, the Commerce Department said new home sales rose 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000 units last month, the highest level since November 2017. That was well above economists’ forecasts for a decline to 647,000 units.
  • Gold prices slipped on Wednesday in Asia, pressured by strong earning reports stateside and strong U.S. housing data released overnight. A wave of better-than-expected earnings results from U.S.-listed companies including Hasbro, Twitter and Coco-Cola supported risk sentiment and put pressure on the safe-haven gold. Strong U.S. housing data also dampened concerns about an economic slowdown in the country. Overnight, the Commerce Department said new home sales rose 4.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000 units last month, the highest level since November 2017. That was well above economists’ forecasts for a decline to 647,000 units. Elsewhere, traders also pay close attention to the latest development on the Sino-U.S. trade front, as the two sides were reportedly closing in on a potential trade agreement. Officials from the U.S. will travel to Beijing next Tuesday for a new round of talks, the White House said. That will be followed by more negotiations in Washington a week after the talks in Beijing concluded, the White House added.
  • Dollar hovered near a 22-month high against its peers on Wednesday, after strong U.S. housing data further eased concerns of a slowdown in the world's biggest economy. Data showing sales of new U.S. single-family homes jumped to a near 1-1/2-year high in March on Tuesday added to recent positive readings in retail sales and exports. U.S. first quarter GDP data on Friday could strengthen the case that while the current period of global expansion is in its late stages, the United States is on a firmer footing compared with other leading economies. Australia's first-quarter consumer price index (CPI) data is due at 0130 GMT and analysts polled by Reuters expect core inflation to come in around 1.7 percent - undershooting the central bank's 2-3 percent target band.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday amid signs that global markets remain adequately supplied, despite a jump to 2019 highs this week on Washington's push for tighter sanctions against Iran. Crude oil prices for spot delivery rose to 2019 highs earlier in the week after the United States said on Monday it would end all exemptions for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries halt oil imports from Tehran from May or face punitive action from Washington. The spot price surge has put the Brent forward curve into steep backwardation, in which prices for later delivery are cheaper than for prompt dispatch. Stephen Schork of the Schork Report energy newsletter, said the shift to backwardation in the past four months was "a sign that the market's underlying fundamentals have shifted away from a spot market that is well supplied to a market where demand is beginning to overtake supply." U.S. sanctions against oil exporter Iran were introduced in November 2018, but Washington allowed its largest buyers limited imports of crude for another half-year as an adjustment period. With Iranian oil exports likely declining sharply from May as most countries bow to U.S. pressure, global crude markets are expected to tighten in the short-run, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Barclays (LON:BARC) bank said this week. Despite the tight spot market, analysts said global oil markets remained adequately supplied for now thanks to ample spare capacity from the Middle East-dominated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and also the United States. The International Energy Agency (IEA), a watchdog for oil consuming countries, said in a statement on Tuesday that markets are "adequately supplied" and that "global spare production capacity remains at comfortable levels." The biggest source of new oil supply comes from the United States, where crude oil production has already risen by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) since early 2018 to a record of more than 12 million bpd early this year, making America the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. In a sign of America's rising oil market clout, former OPEC member and oil exporter Indonesia has ordered its first crude cargo from the United States, formerly the top crude importer but now the world's biggest oil producer.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,284 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 14.90-15.30 15.60 16.00-16.40
Crude Oil 66.00-66.50 67.00 67.60-68.50
EURO/USD 1.1280--1.1330 1.1350 1.1380-1.1420
GBP/USD 1.2970-1.3010 1.3060 1.3100-1.3150
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.70 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,269-1,260 1,251 1,244
Silver-XAG 14.75-14.50 14.20 13.90
Crude Oil 65.60-65.00 64.20 63.60-63.00
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2850 1.2800 1.2760
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (24th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1276.42/oz and low of US$1266.27/oz. Gold down by 0.208% at US$1272.19/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1269-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1276-1284-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1276-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,269-1,260
S2     1,251
S3     1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,276-1,284
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.922

Buy
20-DMA   1290.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1302.24

Sell
100-DMA   1289.80 Buy
200-DMA   1250.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.02/oz and low of US$14.73/oz. Silver settled down by 1.081% at US$14.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.75-14.50
S2     14.20
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.90-15.30
R2     15.60
R3     16.00-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.827 Buy
20-DMA   15.05 Sell
50-DMA   15.31 Sell
100-DMA   15.29 Buy
200-DMA   30.240 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   30.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$66.53/bbl, intraday low of US$65.55/bbl and settled up by 0.600% to close at US$66.12/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.00-68.50 with stop loss at 68.50; targeting 65.60-65.00-64.20 and 63.60-63.00. Buy above 65.60-63.00 with risk daily closing below 63.00 and targeting 66.00-66.50-67.00 and 67.60-68.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.60-65.00
S2     64.20
S3     63.60-63.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.00-66.50
R2     67.00
R3     67.60-68.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   74.608 Sell
20-DMA   62.97 Buy
50-DMA   59.47 Buy
100-DMA   55.23 Buy
200-DMA   60.86 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.717 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1191/EUR, high of US$1.1260/EUR and settled the day up by 0.266% to close at US$1.1226/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1220-1.1100 with risk below 1.1100, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1330 and 1.1350-1.1380-1.1420. Sell below 1.1280-1.1420 targeting 1.1220-1.1175-1.1150 and 1.1100-1.1070 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280--1.1330
R2     1.1350
R3     1.1380-1.1420

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   41.393 Buy
20-DMA   1.1252 Sell
50-DMA   1.1292 Sell
100-DMA   1.1343 Sell
200-DMA   1.1438 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2927/GBP, high of US$1.3018/GBP and settled the day down by 0.323% to close at US$1.2934/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2970-1.3200 with targets at 1.2900-1.2850 and 1.2800-1.2770 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.2900-1.2760 with targets 1.2970-1.3010-1.3060 and 1.3100-1.3150 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2900-1.2850
S2     1.2800
S3     1.2760

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2970-1.3010
R2     1.3060
R3     1.3100-1.3150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.776

Buy
20-DMA   1.3057 Sell
50-DMA   1.3101 Sell
100-DMA   1.2957 Buy
200-DMA   1.2965 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.431 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0035 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.02/USD and settled the day down by 0.071% at JPY111.85/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.70
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.312 Buy
20-DMA   111.09 Buy
50-DMA   110.99 Buy
100-DMA   110.91 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

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