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Daily Market Lookup

  • World equity markets slipped on Thursday amid worries on global growth and as investors digested European earnings, while the Swedish crown slumped to its lowest in 17 years and the euro suffered after German data. Asian markets had fallen earlier in the day, losing 0.5 percent as South Korea’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter, giving a sharp reminder of the fragility of the world economy beyond the United States. Shanghai’s bourse also fell sharply late in the day, losing more than 2 percent as other Chinese markets lost ground after attempts by the central bank to temper expectations for further easing of monetary policy. Chinese officials also warned of protracted pressure on economic growth, casting a shadow over hopes for a sustained recovery in the world’s second biggest economy Those worries on growth also played out closer to home for European investors, with fears lingering over the state of the German economy after a survey on Wednesday showed German business morale falling. Amid that weakness, central banks across the world have maintained ultra-loose monetary policy. The Bank of Japan on Thursday pledged to keep interest rates very low at least until early 2020, even as it retained main policy targets. There were signs of growing strength in the U.S. dollar, which analysts said was partly a symptom of the world’s largest economy maintaining relative strength and others, such as China, faring worse. The Swedish crown slumped to its lowest since August 2002, after the central bank said weak inflationary pressures meant a forecast rate hike would come slighter later than planned, holding benchmark borrowing costs unchanged. The euro suffered its worst day in over six weeks, falling 0.6 percent to a 22-month following the further signs of flagging growth in Germany. It was last at $1.1141. Also on the agenda for the single currency were Spanish elections on Sunday and economic concerns out of Italy.
  • The dollar has come off Wednesday’s highs in early trade in Europe on Thursday, but is still well bid on the back of news flow suggesting the U.S. economy remains a pillar of relative strength. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, surged to its highest since May 2017 overnight after the Bank of Japan joined its counterpart in Canada in talking down the economic outlook. The BoJ said it would hold off from any interest rate increases for at least another year, sending the dollar briefly to a new 2019 high of 112.38 yen, although it has since retreated to 111.78, failing yet again to make a sustained break through the 112 level. The dollar also hit a three-month high of $1.3509 against the Canadian dollar Wednesday, when the Bank of Canada cut its growth forecast for this year to 1.2% from 1.7%, and dropped language about the possible need for future interest rate hikes from its policy statement. Meanwhile, the drumbeat of weak economic news from elsewhere across the globe continues. The South Korean won fell to its lowest in over two years against the dollar after data showed the economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, while the Indian rupee has fallen to just above 70 against the dollar on fears that the sharp rise in oil prices this week will hit its current account. India is one of the world’s largest oil importers. The dollar’s rally may still be tempered by disappointments from the ongoing corporate earnings season, although results so far have generally outperformed expectations. That leaves Friday’s U.S. GDP report as the next likely big trigger for the greenback.
  • Gold prices fell on Thursday in Asia despite weak data from South Korea and Germany. South Korea’s GDP shrank the most in a decade in the first quarter of 2019, data showed on Thursday morning. Exports, which account for about half of Korea’s GDP, were weaker than expected amid slackening demand from China, the nation’s biggest market. Meanwhile, in Europe, German business sentiment unexpectedly fell in April. Despite the weak data, prices of the safe-haven gold fell today. A wave of better-than-expected earnings results from U.S.-listed companies this week and strong U.S. housing data were cited as putting pressure on the precious metal. Looking ahead, traders will now shift their focus towards upcoming U.S. GDP data, which is due on Friday.
  • Brent crude oil on Thursday rose above $75 per barrel for the first time in 2019 in the wake of tightening sanctions on Iran, while gains in U.S. prices were crimped by a surge in U.S. supply. Traders said Brent was receiving support on Thursday from a halt of Russian oil exports to Poland and Germany via a pipeline due to quality concerns. The United States this week said it would end all exemptions for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries halt oil imports from Tehran from May or face punitive action from Washington. The U.S. decision to try and bring down Iran oil exports to zero comes amid supply cuts led by producer OPEC since the start of the year aimed at propping up prices. As a result, Brent prices have risen by almost 40 percent since January. Still, Brian Hook, U.S. Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State, said on Thursday "there is plenty of supply in the market to ease that transition and maintain stable prices.South Korea's economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, the Bank of Korea said on Thursday, marking its worst performance since the global financial crisis. China's Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday that his nation's economy "still faces downward pressure". On the supply side, U.S. crude oil production has risen by more than 2 mn bpd since early 2018 to a record of 12.2mn bpd currently, making the United States the world's biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia In part because of soaring domestic production, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week hit a October 2017 high of 460.63 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. That was a rise of 1.3 million barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,284 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 14.90-15.30 15.60 16.00-16.40
Crude Oil 66.10-66.50 67.00 67.60
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1175 1.1200 1.1280-1.1330
GBP/USD 1.2900-1.2970 1.3010 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,269-1,260 1,251 1,244
Silver-XAG 14.75-14.50 14.20 13.90
Crude Oil 65.60-65.00 64.20 63.60-63.00
EURO/USD 1.1140-1.1100 1.1070 1.1020
GBP/USD 1.2850-1.2800 1.2760 1.2700
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (25th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1278.48/oz and low of US$1268.70/oz. Gold up by 0.255% at US$1275.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1269-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1276-1284-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1276-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,269-1,260
S2     1,251
S3     1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,276-1,284
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.922

Buy
20-DMA   1290.91 Sell
50-DMA  

1302.24

Sell
100-DMA   1289.80 Buy
200-DMA   1250.41 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   16.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -7.420 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.97/oz and low of US$14.77/oz. Silver settled up by 0.823% at US$14.92/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.75-14.50
S2     14.20
S3     13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.90-15.30
R2     15.60
R3     16.00-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.827 Buy
20-DMA   15.05 Sell
50-DMA   15.31 Sell
100-DMA   15.29 Buy
200-DMA   14.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   30.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$66.38/bbl, intraday low of US$65.65/bbl and settled down by 0.582% to close at US$65.73/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 66.00-68.50 with stop loss at 68.50; targeting 65.60-65.00-64.20 and 63.60-63.00. Buy above 65.60-63.00 with risk daily closing below 63.00 and targeting 66.00-66.50-67.00 and 67.60-68.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     65.60-65.00
S2     64.20
S3     63.60-63.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     66.10-66.50
R2     67.00
R3     67.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   72.608 Sell
20-DMA   63.60 Buy
50-DMA   59.95 Buy
100-DMA   55.51 Buy
200-DMA   60.84 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   85.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.717 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1140/EUR, high of US$1.1161/EUR and settled the day down by 0.650% to close at US$1.1152/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1140-1.1330 with risk below 1.1330, targeting 1.1150-1.1200 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1150-1.1330 targeting 1.1140- 1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1020.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1140-1.1100
S2     1.1070
S3     1.1020

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150-1.1175
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1280-1.1330

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.104 Buy
20-DMA   1.1238 Sell
50-DMA   1.1285 Sell
100-DMA   1.1336 Sell
200-DMA   1.1429 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2886/GBP, high of US$1.2962/GBP and settled the day down by 0.269% to close at US$1.2899/GBP.On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3200 with targets at 1.2850-1.2800 and 1.2770-1.2700 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.2850-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3010 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2850-1.2800
S2     1.2760
S3     1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2900-1.2970
R2     1.3010
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.597

Buy
20-DMA   1.3033 Sell
50-DMA   1.3103 Sell
100-DMA   1.2960 Buy
200-DMA   1.2962 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0052 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY111.67/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.39/USD and settled the day down by 0.296% at JPY112.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 111.00-110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.00-107.75 with targets of 111.40-111.90 and 112.25-113.00 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.5601 Buy
20-DMA   111.66 Buy
50-DMA   110.28 Buy
100-DMA   110.80 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

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