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  • The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors. The Commerce Department’s gross domestic product (GDP) report to be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) is expected to sketch a picture of an economy growing close to potential, mostly reflecting the impact of an ebbing boost from a giant fiscal stimulus and past interest rate increases. Gross domestic product probably increased at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as a burst in exports, strong inventory stockpiling and government investment in public construction projects offset slowdowns in consumer and business spending, according to a Reuters survey of economists. With global growth still sluggish, the surge in exports is likely to reverse and the inventory build will probably need to be worked off, which could curtail production at factories. That could restrain growth in the second quarter. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent pace in the October-December period. Growth has stepped down from a peak 4.2 percent pace in the second quarter of 2018, when the White House’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package jolted consumer spending. Economists estimate the speed at which the economy can grow over a long period without igniting inflation at between 1.7 and 2.0 percent. The economy will mark 10 years of expansion in July, the longest on record. The economy stumbled at the turn of the year, with a batch of weak economic reports suggesting first-quarter GDP growth as low as a 0.2 percent rate. The soft data stream stoked fears of a recession that were also exacerbated by a brief inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Some of the weak data, especially retail sales, were blamed on a 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government, which hurt confidence and delayed processing of tax refunds. Since the shutdown ended on Jan. 25, economic data have mostly perked up, leading to a sharp upgrading of first-quarter GDP estimates. The improvement in the economy’s fortunes has been mirrored by strong corporate profits for the quarter. Some economists caution that growth could surprise on the downside because of a seasonal quirk. The so-called residual seasonality has tended to understate economic growth in the first quarter. Though the government said last year it had addressed the methodology problem, economists believe residual seasonality has not been entirely eliminated from the data. A surge in exports and weak imports are expected to have sharply narrowed the trade deficit in the first quarter. Trade is believed to have added more than one percentage point to GDP after being neutral in the fourth quarter. Trade tensions between the United States and China have caused wild swings in the trade deficit, with exporters and importers trying to stay ahead of the tariff fight between the two economic giants. The trade standoff has also had an impact on inventories, which are expected to have increased in the first quarter at their strongest pace since 2015. Part of the inventory build is related to weak demand, especially in the automotive sector. Inventories are expected to have contributed a full percentage point to first-quarter GDP after adding one-tenth of a percentage point in the October-December period. Excluding trade and inventories, the economy is expected to have expanded at a roughly 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter. Economists said Federal Reserve officials were likely to focus on this growth measure. The Fed recently suspended its three-year monetary policy tightening campaign, dropping forecasts for any interest rate hikes this year. The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs four times in 2018. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have slowed significantly from the fourth quarter’s 2.5 percent rate. Economists said the government shutdown was the main factor behind the anticipated deceleration in spending.
  • Oil prices dipped on Friday on expectations that producer club OPEC will soon raise output to make up for a decline in exports from Iran following a hardening of sanctions on Tehran by the United States. Still, prices are on course for the longest run of weekly gains in years, as oil markets have tightened amid supply disruptions and rising geopolitical concerns, especially over the tensions between the United States and Iran The dip followed Brent's rise above $75 per barrel for the first time this year on Thursday after Germany, Poland and Slovakia suspended imports of Russian oil via a major pipeline, citing poor quality. The move cut parts of Europe off from a major supply route. il has been driven up by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Crude futures are up around 40 percent so far this year. Washington said on Monday it would end all exemptions for sanctions against Iran, demanding countries halt oil imports from Tehran from May or face punitive action. To make up for the shortfall from Iran, the United States is pressuring OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia, as well as allied producers like Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, to end voluntary supply restraints. Jefferies bank said "a drop to 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) now seems realistic" for Iranian oil exports, adding that "at least China and potentially India and Turkey will continue to import Iranian crude". Despite U.S. efforts to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero, many analysts expect some oil to still seep out of the country.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
26th April 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,284 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.00-15.30 15.60 16.00-16.40
Crude Oil 65.00-65.60 66.10 66.50-67.00
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1175 1.1200 1.1280-1.1330
GBP/USD 1.2920-1.2970 1.3010 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
26th April 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,269 1,260 1,251-1,244
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.20-13.90
Crude Oil 64.20 63.65-63.00 61.83
EURO/USD 1.1140-1.1100 1.1070 1.1020
GBP/USD 1.2850-1.2800 1.2760 1.2700
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (26th April 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1282.53/oz and low of US$1273.31/oz. Gold up by 0.126% at US$1277.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1276-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1284-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1284-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,276-1,269
S2     1,260
S3     1,251-1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,284
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.871

Buy
20-DMA   1286.58 Sell
50-DMA  

1300.32

Sell
100-DMA   1291.22 Buy
200-DMA   1251.01 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -6.858 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.00/oz and low of US$14.84/oz. Silver settled up by 0.0133% at US$14.93/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.20-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.00-15.30
R2     15.60
R3     16.00-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   31.827 Buy
20-DMA   15.05 Sell
50-DMA   15.31 Sell
100-DMA   15.29 Buy
200-DMA   14.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   30.240 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$66.25/bbl, intraday low of US$64.89/bbl and settled down by 1.011% to close at US$65.07/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 65.00-67.00 with stop loss at 68.50; targeting 64.20-63.60 and 63.00-62.50-61.80. Buy above 64.20-61.80 with risk daily closing below 61.80 and targeting 66.00-66.50-67.00 and 67.60-68.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     64.20
S2     63.65-63.00
S3     61.83

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     65.00-65.60
R2     66.10
R3     66.50-67.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.136 Sell
20-DMA   63.81 Buy
50-DMA   60.13 Buy
100-DMA   55.62 Buy
200-DMA   60.83 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   54.923 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.576 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1117/EUR, high of US$1.1161/EUR and settled the day down by 0.185% to close at US$1.1130/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1140-1.1330 with risk below 1.1330, targeting 1.1150-1.1200 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1150-1.1330 targeting 1.1140- 1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1020.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1140-1.1100
S2     1.1070
S3     1.1020

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150-1.1175
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1280-1.1330

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.104 Buy
20-DMA   1.1238 Sell
50-DMA   1.1285 Sell
100-DMA   1.1336 Sell
200-DMA   1.1429 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2865/GBP, high of US$1.2916/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0232% to close at US$1.2896/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3200 with targets at 1.2850-1.2800 and 1.2770-1.2700 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.2850-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3010 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2850-1.2800
S2     1.2760
S3     1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2920-1.2970
R2     1.3010
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.597

Buy
20-DMA   1.3103 Sell
50-DMA   1.3103 Sell
100-DMA   1.2960 Buy
200-DMA   1.2962 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0052 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY111.36/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.23/USD and settled the day down by 0.518% at JPY111.60/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-113.70 with risk above 113.70 targeting 111.50-111.00-110.60 and 110.10-109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.50-109.05 with targets of 111.90-12.25 and 113.00-113.70 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.5601 Buy
20-DMA   111.66 Buy
50-DMA   110.28 Buy
100-DMA   110.80 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

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