Daily Market Lookup

• Asian shares rebounded on Monday after strong U.S. first-quarter economic growth boosted the S&P 500 index to a record high, and the recovery was also supported by data showing profits at Chinese industrial firms grew for the first time in four months. Still nagged by uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy, investors were awaiting a meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve this week and Chinese factory data for further clues on policy direction in the world’s biggest economies. Monday’s gains follow data showing U.S. gross domestic product grew at a faster 3.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. On another positive note, Chinese data showed industrial profits grew in March after four months of contraction, but analysts said sentiment remained fragile. While the strong U.S. GDP data helped to ease fears of an imminent recession, investors noted that it was driven by a smaller trade deficit and a large accumulation of unsold merchandise, as consumer and business spending slowed sharply. The March reading for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation measure, is due later on Monday. The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with Chairman Jerome Powell expected to balance the strong domestic growth data against persistent concerns over the global outlook Markets will also be looking to global factory activity surveys this week, particularly official and private readings on Chinese manufacturing which will both be released Tuesday. With Japan on an extended break, currency markets were calm ahead of the FOMC meeting and U.S. jobs numbers.
• Gold prices slipped on Monday in Asia as market awaits the outcome of the next FOMC meeting. The Fed will conclude its two-days meeting on Wednesday amid expectations that interest rates will remain on hold. The meeting is coming after official data showed on Friday that the U.S. economy grew fast than expected in the first quarter The Fed indicated at its March meeting that it will hold off from hiking rates for the rest of the year amid expectations for a slower pace of economic growth. Meanwhile, soft U.S. inflation data released on Friday put pressure on the dollar and was cited as supportive for the precious metal earlier in the day. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, slowed to 1.3% in the 12 months through March, from 1.8% the previous month Sino-U.S. trade headlines remained in focus as U.S. sends a high-level delegation to Beijing this week for more talks.
• The U.S. dollar traded flat on Monday in Asia. A Federal Reserve rate decision and another round of U.S.-China trade talks are expected to be in focus this week. The Fed will conclude its two-days meeting on Wednesday amid expectations that interest rates will remain on hold. The meeting is coming after official data showed on Friday that the U.S. economy grew fast than expected in the first quarter. The Fed indicated at its March meeting that it will hold off from hiking rates for the rest of the year amid expectations for a slower pace of economic growth. Meanwhile, the central bank's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, slowed to 1.3% in the 12 months through March, from 1.8% the previous month. Sino-U.S. trade talks returned to focus this week as high level officials from both sides are due to meet in Beijing for another round of negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday repeated that China trade talks were "going very well," a day after he said that he would soon host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House. Trump has said he expects to finalize a deal in a meeting with Xi. Calm settled over Asian currency markets on Monday as Japan kicked off a week of holidays, giving investors an extra excuse to sit on their hands ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting and U.S. jobs numbers. All eyes are on the Fed to see what they made of the first-quarter gross domestic product report, which showed strong growth of 3.2 percent, but largely for one-off reasons including a surge in inventories. Core inflation, on the other hand, surprised by slowing sharply, leading speculators to actually narrow the odds on a rate cut this year. Fed fund futures now imply a rate of 2.20 percent by year end, from 2.41 percent now. The March reading for core personal consumption expenditure, the Fed's favored inflation measure, is due later Monday and there is a risk it might slow to 1.6 percent or even 1.5 percent. The European Central Bank is under pressure to keep its stimulus in place, if not to do new rounds, while markets are pricing in rate cuts for Australia and New Zealand following weak inflation readings. The Bank of Japan last week pledged to keep its policy super easy for at least another year, an effort to dispel talk it was wavering in its commitment. While the yen gained at the end of last week, that was mainly because speculators chose to cut short positions ahead of this week's extended Japanese holiday.
• Oil prices fell on Monday in Asia, pressured by reports that U.S. President Donald Trump asked the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower oil prices. Oil prices failed to recover even after OPEC's Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo later denied having spoken with the president. Last week, oil prices rose after Trump announced that he was ending all sanction waivers for importers of Iranian oil, although Brent was under some pressure following a Reuters report that said Germany, Poland and Slovakia halted imports of Russian oil via a major pipeline due to “poor quality.” Meanwhile, the weekly reading on U.S. oil rigs published on Friday showed a startling drop of 20 rigs that took the count to a 13-month low Looking ahead, American Petroleum Institute weekly report on oil stockpiles is due on Tuesday, while the EIA weekly report is set to released the following day. Oil prices were boosted since the beginning of the year by output cuts by Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producers in the OPEC cartel and U.S. sanction against Iran and Venezuela.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1288.64/oz and low of US$1274.08/oz. Gold up by 0.694% at US$1285.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1278-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1286-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1286-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.06/oz and low of US$14.86/oz. Silver settled up by 0.0133% at US$15.06/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$65.14/bbl, intraday low of US$62.29/bbl and settled down by 3.50% to close at US$62.83/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.00-65.60 with stop loss at 65.60; targeting 61.80-60.80 and 60.10-59.60. Buy above 61.80-59.60 with risk daily closing below 59.60 and targeting 63.00-63.65-64.20 and 65.00-65.60.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1110/EUR, high of US$1.1173/EUR and settled the day up by 0.124% to close at US$1.1142/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1140-1.1330 with risk below 1.1330, targeting 1.1150-1.1200 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1150-1.1330 targeting 1.1140- 1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1020.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2874/GBP, high of US$1.2942/GBP and settled the day up by 0.139% to close at US$1.2914/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3200 with targets at 1.2850-1.2800 and 1.2770-1.2700 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.2850-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3010 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY111.42/USD and made an intraday high of JPY112.02/USD and settled the day down by 0.032% at JPY111.55/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-113.70 with risk above 113.70 targeting 111.50-111.00-110.60 and 110.10-109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.50-109.05 with targets of 111.90-12.25 and 113.00-113.70 with stop below 107.50.