Daily Market Lookup

• The U.S. dollar was flat against its rivals Monday after pairing losses against the yen, as analysts downplayed the prospect that President Donald Trump will follow through with his threat of raising tariffs on China. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the green against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.01% to 92.26. Trump warned that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods could more than double to 25% from 10%, stoking demand for safe-haven yen. But analysts said there's little sign that China will step away from talks, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang telling reporters that "China’s team is preparing to go to the United States for the discussions." Talks will start on Wednesday. A decline in the pound also supported the greenback, after U.K. Labour Party lawmaker’s poured cold water on the likelihood for a compromise deal with Prime Minister Theresa May. With the latter supported by better-than-expected eurozone services and retail sales data. With the U.K. celebrating a bank holiday on Monday, cable fell 0.6% as the opposition Labour Party complained that British Prime Minster Theresa May was leaking details of their Brexit compromise, putting an agreement at risk. The euro meanwhile managed to hold its own against the dollar as euro zone business activity unexpectedly improved in April and retail sales for March managed to evade an expected decline. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to hike tariffs on Chinese good sent ripples through financial markets on Monday, dampening risk sentiment and boosting safe haven assets. Trump announced over the weekend plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25% from the current 10% this Friday, sending global equities reeling and increasing the safe haven appeal of the Japanese yen. The Chinese yuan to the contrary fell to this year’s low as traders worried over the impact of the tariff increase on the world’s second largest economy.
• China backtracked on substantial commitments it had made during trade talks with the United States, prompting President Donald Trump to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods slated to go into effect on Friday, top U.S. trade officials said on Monday. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to be in Washington on Thursday and Friday of this week as part of a Chinese delegation to try to reach a deal before the new tariff deadline, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said as he briefed reporters with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Trump on Sunday tweeted that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent by the end of the week, and would “soon” target the remaining Chinese imports with tariffs, sending stocks and oil prices lower.
• The specter of more tariffs on China and larger U.S. crude builds are worrying to oil traders, but nowhere as worrying as the possibility of an Iranian strike on U.S. interests. Oil prices went from 2% down to settling up on Monday after Axios quoted Israel's Channel 13 diplomatic correspondent Barak Ravid as saying that Israel has passed information to the U.S. about an alleged Iranian plot to attack U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. Oil had a volatile day, falling more than $1 per barrel in Asia and Europe on U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to hit China with new tariffs, before recovering strongly on the reports of rising Gulf tensions. Oil prices initially slumped on Trump's tweet on Sunday that he will hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods before the end of this week and target hundreds of billions more “soon” after reportedly being annoyed by China’s attempts to drag out a trade deal between the two countries and “renegotiate” what had been agreed over the past five months. Since the two sides agreed to a tariff ceasefire in November, several rounds of talks have been held, with both governments talking up the possibility of a deal this spring. While WTI and Brent briefly fell through their 200-Day moving averages on Monday, the U.S. benchmark remains up 37% on the year and its U.K. peer shows a year-to-date gain of 32%. After blockbuster gains of around 30% or more in the first quarter, the gains in oil prices have slowed, advancing just about 6% in April. Since the start of May, prices have slipped as the Energy Information Administration surprised traders by reporting one large U.S. crude build after another over the past six weeks.

Gold – XAU

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1285.74/oz and low of US$1276.97/oz. Gold down by 0.672% at US$1280.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1278-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1286-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1286-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

Silver - XAG

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.95/oz and low of US$14.74/oz. Silver settled down by 0.268% at US$14.88/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.50 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.50. Sell below 14.90-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.50-14.20 and 14.00-13.50.

Oil - WTI

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$62.96/bbl, intraday low of US$60.07/bbl and settled up by 2.044% to close at US$62.62/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.50-64.70 with stop loss at 64.70; targeting 62.00-61.50-60.80 and 60.10-59.60. Buy above 62.00-59.00 with risk daily closing below 59.00 and targeting 62.50-63.00 and 63.65-64.70.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1165/EUR, high of US$1.1208/EUR and settled the day up by 0.2686% to close at US$1.1197/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1175-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1200-1.1230 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1230-1.1360 targeting 1.1175-1.1140-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1020.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.3080/GBP, high of US$1.3169/GBP and settled the day down by 0.289% to close at US$1.3095/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3150-1.3300 with targets at 1.3100-1.3060-1.3010 and 1.2970-1.2920 stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.23100-1.2920 with targets 1.3150-1.3210and 1.3250-1.3300 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY110.27/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.95/USD and settled the day up by 0.140% at JPY110.76/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

Technical in Focus: In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 111.50-113.70 with risk above 113.70 targeting 110.60-110.10 and 109.55-109.05. Long positions above 110.50-109.05 with targets of 111.50-111.90-12.25 and 113.00-113.70 with stop below 107.50.