AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares fell to eight-week lows on Thursday as investors waited to see whether Chinese and U.S. trade negotiators can salvage a deal to stave off the threat of fresh U.S. tariff increases, which would damage global economic growth. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is set for talks in Washington on Thursday and Friday with U.S. officials who have complained that Beijing has backtracked on earlier commitments. An agreement could avert a sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on Friday. China has threatened to retaliate, raising the risk of a major escalation in the bruising trade war between the world’s two largest economies Trump has threatened to raise tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports at 12:01 a.m. ET (0401GMT) on Friday. Beijing has vowed to retaliate, without giving details. The closely-watched spread turned negative in late March, spooking investors, who read the development as portending a future recession.
  • Foreign exchange markets are in risk-off mode again in early trading in Europe Thursday, with the yen rising and the renminbi falling as the likelihood of fresh U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rises. A flurry of contradictory headlines on trade on Wednesday left markets confused but still expecting a deal to be done between the world’s two largest economies, not least since China’s top negotiator vice premier Liu He is due to arrive in Washington later in the day. China’s Commerce Ministry responded overnight by warning that “escalating the trade conflict is not in the interest of the people in both countries and the world.” Elsewhere, the British pound remains in holding mode after a threat to U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May fizzled. Hopes for a cross-party deal that could deliver a smooth exit from the European Union remain low, however. The euro also continues to drift in a range around $1.12, with no major economic data scheduled for the day. The dollar hovered near a six-week low versus the yen on Thursday, weighed down against the safe-haven Japanese peer as risk aversion gripped broader markets amid concerns the U.S.-China trade conflict could escalate. Markets were nervously awaiting the start of two-day trade talks in Washington later in the global day to see if Chinese negotiators can convince the White House to back down on a threatened tariff hike on Friday. The Japanese currency, which has advanced against a number of peers, tends to attract demand in times of political strife and market turmoil. This week, expectations that the United States and China would reach an agreement soon to end their trade war have been upended, sending investors fleeing from riskier assets. Global stocks have retreated and government bonds have surged. Washington has accused Beijing of backtracking on commitments made during trade negotiations and U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to hike existing tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday and impose fresh levies soon if there is no deal. Trump said on Wednesday that China "broke the deal" reached in talks with the United States, and vowed to not back down on imposing new tariffs unless Beijing "stops cheating our workers".
  • Oil prices dropped on Thursday amid concerns over the escalating trade battle between the United States and China, despite a surprise fall in U.S. crude stockpiles The Sino-U.S. trade war has weighed on oil prices this week as heightened tensions between the world's two biggest economies cloud the global economic outlook. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China "broke the deal" in trade talks with Washington and would face stiff tariffs if no agreement is reached. Higher tariffs are set to take effect on Friday, during Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's two-day visit to Washington from Thursday. Oil prices have had some support from signs of tighter global supply on the back of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia. Both the Brent and WTI benchmarks have risen more than 30 percent so far this year. Supplies have also been tightened by U.S. sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran. An unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories also kept oil price declines in check. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4 million barrels in the week to May 3, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th May 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,286 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 62.00-62.50 63.00 63.65-64.70
EURO/USD 1.1230 1.1280 1.1330-1.1360
GBP/USD 1.3060-1.3090 1.3150 1.3210-1.3250
USD/JPY 110.00-110.60 111.50 112.00-112.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th May 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,269 1,260 1,251-1,244
Silver-XAG 14.70-14.50 14.20 13.90-13.50
Crude Oil 61.50 60.80 62.00-62.50
EURO/USD 1.1175-1.1150 1.1100 1.1070-1.1020
GBP/USD 1.3010 1.2970-1.2920 1.2890
USD/JPY 109.55-109.05 108.40 107.70

Intra-Day Strategy (9th May 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1291.41/oz and low of US$1279.32/oz. Gold up by 0.285% at US$1280.69/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,276-1,269
S2     1,260
S3     1,251-1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,286
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.912

Buy
20-DMA   1282.26 Sell
50-DMA  

1294.29

Sell
100-DMA   1293.81 Sell
200-DMA   1252.59 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   67.073 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.758 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.95/oz and low of US$14.81/oz. Silver settled down by 0.369% at US$14.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.95/oz and low of US$14.81/oz. Silver settled down by 0.369% at US$14.82/oz.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.50 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.50. Sell below 14.90-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.50-14.20 and 14.00-13.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.70-14.50
S2     14.20
S3     13.90-13.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   14.94 Buy
20-DMA   14.94 Sell
50-DMA   15.15 Sell
100-DMA   15.32 Sell
200-DMA   14.94 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0986 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$62.40/bbl, intraday low of US$61.12/bbl and settled up by 0.894% to close at US$62.02/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 62.00-64.70 with stop loss at 64.70; targeting 61.50-60.80 and 60.10-59.60. Buy above 61.50-59.00 with risk daily closing below 59.00 and targeting 62.50-63.00 and 63.65-64.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     61.50
S2     60.80
S3     62.00-62.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     62.00-62.50
R2     63.00
R3     63.65-64.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.366 Sell
20-DMA   63.65 Buy
50-DMA   61.05 Buy
100-DMA   56.44 Buy
200-DMA   60.58 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.341 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1182/EUR, high of US$1.1213/EUR and settled the day down by 0.001% to close at US$1.1190/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1175-1.1020 with risk below 1.1020, targeting 1.1200-1.1230 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1230-1.1360 targeting 1.1175-1.1140-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1020.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1175-1.1150
S2     1.1100
S3     1.1070-1.1020

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1230
R2     1.1280
R3     1.1330-1.1360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1222 Sell
50-DMA   1.1261 Sell
100-DMA   1.1323 Sell
200-DMA   1.1409 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   50.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2986/GBP, high of US$1.3079/GBP and settled the day down by 0.515% to close at US$1.3003/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.3060-1.3250 with targets at 1.3010-1.2970 and 1.2920-1.2890 stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.3010-1.2850 with targets 1.3060-1.3100-1.3150 and 1.3210-1.3250 with stop loss closing below 1.2850.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.3010
S2     1.2970-1.2920
S3     1.2890

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.3060-1.3090
R2     1.3150
R3     1.3210-1.3250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.283

Buy
20-DMA   1.3015 Buy
50-DMA   1.3097 Sell
100-DMA   1.2996 Buy
200-DMA   1.2959 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.996 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0052 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wedensday made intra‐day low of JPY109.89/USD and made an intraday high of JPY110.28/USD and settled the day down by 0.126% at JPY110.09/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 109.55-109.05 and 108.40-107.70. Long positions above 109.55-107.70 with targets of 110.00-110.60-111.5 and 111.90-112.25 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.55-109.05
S2     108.40
S3     107.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.60
R2     111.50
R3     112.00-112.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   26.401 Buy
20-DMA   111.44 Sell
50-DMA   111.30 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.48 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   5.575 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.303 Buy

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