AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks tracked Wall Street losses on Thursday as the latest exchanges between Beijing and Washington signaled the heightened risk of a prolonged trade war, stoking investors’ concerns about the impact on global economic growth. His comments followed reports from Chinese newspapers that Beijing could use rare earths to strike back at Washington after U.S. President Donald Trump remarked he was “not yet ready” to make a deal with China over trade. As investors switched out of equities, safe-haven assets such as government bonds found favor, with yields on German benchmark debt approaching record lows. The G20 meeting is set for June 28-29 in Japan. Observers elsewhere expressed less optimism toward the G20 meeting. Notwithstanding lower Treasury yields, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was steady at 98.085 and in reach of a two-year peak of 98.371 set last week, with the greenback serving as a safe haven. The rise followed volatile trading on Wednesday, when oil prices fell to near three-month lows at one point as trade war fears gripped the commodity markets. Trade worries have weighed on oil but supply constraints linked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ output cuts and political tensions in the Middle East have offered some support.
  • The dollar held up against its key rivals on Thursday after fears of an escalation in the Sino-U.S. trade standoff forced investors to take shelter in safe-haven assets, including government bonds. As the dispute between the world’s two biggest economies showed no signs of abating, worries that global growth will be hurt have rippled through financial markets in recent sessions, with riskier assets in particular taking the brunt of selling. Offering the latest sign the standoff between Washington and Beijing is far from ending, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Hanhui said on Thursday that provoking trade disputes is “naked economic terrorism”, ramping up the rhetoric against the United States. Chinese newspapers had warned the day before that Beijing could use rare earth elements to strike back at the United States after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was “not yet ready” to make a deal with Beijing over trade. Investor focus is now on U.S. data for an indication about the state of the world’s top economy, with market participants awaiting the second estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product growth figures and U.S. weekly jobless claims. The dollar was also underpinned by weakness in the euro on fresh signs of political tensions between Italy and the European Union. The European Commission wrote on Wednesday to the Italian government asking it to explain a deterioration in the country’s public finances, a move that sets the stage for a possible legal clash with the eurosceptic coalition in Rome. Analysts said the yen, another safe-haven asset backed by Japan’s status as the world’s biggest creditor nation, remained relatively weak due to domestic investors’ demand for dollars. Trade tensions remained in focus after Chinese newspapers warned that Beijing could use rare earth elements to strike back at the U.S. Separately, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Hanhui said on Thursday that provoking trade disputes is "naked economic terrorism,” a couple days after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington is “not ready for a deal” with China. The greenback has been the preferred choice of safe-haven currency in times of market turmoil and political tensions this year. The Japanese yen, another safe-haven, remained relatively weak due to domestic investors' demand for dollars, analysts said.
  • Oil prices rose on Thursday after a bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories, although concerns that the U.S.-China trade war will trigger an economic downturn kept a lid on gains. U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels in the week to May 24 to 474.4 million barrels, data from industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, showed on Wednesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Thursday at 1500 GMT. Outside the United States, oil prices remain supported by output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers as well as falling supplies from Iran. Iranian May crude exports fell to less than half of April levels at around 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), tanker data showed and two industry sources said, after the United States tightened sanctions on Tehran's main source of income. Many analysts expect the supply cuts to be extended in a meeting next month as OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia wants to prevent oil prices falling back to levels seen in late 2018 when Brent slumped to $50 per barrel. Since OPEC and its allies started withholding supply in January, oil prices have risen by about 30 percent. Preventing prices from rising further are concerns that the trade dispute between the United States and China will trigger a global economic downturn and a slowdown in fuel consumption. U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.3 million barrels in the week to May 24 to 474.4 million barrels, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. The decline was larger than the expected 900,000-barrel fall. The data was delayed this week due to a holiday on Monday. However, gains were capped on fears of further fallout to the global economy from the U.S.-China trade war. Data from the Energy Information Administration is due later today. The market is expecting the EIA to report a 900,000-barrel drop in crude stockpiles for the week ended May 24, In two prior weeks, crude inventories had unexpectedly jumped by around 5 million barrels, adding to the pressure on oil prices.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th May 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,284 1,292 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 14.50-15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 60.00 60.40 60.80-61.20
EURO/USD 1.1150-1.1200 1.1250 1.1280-1.1330
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2700 1.2750 1.2780-1.2850
USD/JPY 110.00-110.60 111.50 112.00-112.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th May 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,276 1,269 1,260-1,254
Silver-XAG 14.20 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 59.00-58.25 57.30 56.50-55.90
EURO/USD 1.1100 1.1070 1.1020-1.0950
GBP/USD 1.2600 1.2550 1.2500-1.2450
USD/JPY 109.50 109.05 108.40-107.70

Intra-Day Strategy (30th May 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1285.48/oz and low of US$1279.07/oz. Gold up by 0.032% at US$1279.72/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,276
S2     1,269
S3     1,260-1,254
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,284
R2     1,292
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.408

Buy
20-DMA   1282.65 Sell
50-DMA  

1289.45

Sell
100-DMA   1296.41 Sell
200-DMA   1257.65 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   50.505 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.70 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.46/oz and low of US$14.32/oz. Silver settled up by 0.621% at US$14.41/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.50-13.50 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.50. Sell below 14.50-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.20-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.20
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     14.50-15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.863 Buy
20-DMA   14.63 Sell
50-DMA   14.93 Sell
100-DMA   15.24 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$59.16/bbl, intraday low of US$56.96/bbl and settled down by 0.059% to close at US$59.06/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 59.00-61.20 with stop loss at 61.20; targeting 58.25-57.30-56.50 and 55.90-55.00. Buy above 58.25-55.00 with risk daily closing below 55.00 and targeting 59.00-60.00-61.20 and 62.00-62.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.00-58.25
S2     57.30
S3     56.50-55.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.00
R2     60.40
R3     60.80-61.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.027 Sell
20-DMA   61.16 Buy
50-DMA   62.13 Buy
100-DMA   58.66 Buy
200-DMA   60.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.896 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1123/EUR, high of US$1.1171/EUR and settled the day down by 0.264% to close at US$1.1130/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1100-1.0950 with risk below 1.0950, targeting 1.1155-1.1200-1.1250 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1150-1.1360 targeting 1.1100-1.1070 and 1.1020-1.0950 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1100
S2     1.1070
S3     1.1020-1.0950

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150-1.1200
R2     1.1250
R3     1.1280-1.1330

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.417 Buy
20-DMA   1.1188 Sell
50-DMA   1.1224 Sell
100-DMA   1.1291 Sell
200-DMA   1.1384 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   79.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2610/GBP, high of US$1.2670/GBP and settled the day down by 0.205% to close at US$1.2625/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2650-1.2890 with targets at 1.2600-1.2550 and 1.2500-1.2450 stop should be below 1.2890. Buy above 1.2650-1.2450 with targets 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 and 1.2850-1.2890 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2500-1.2450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2650-1.2700
R2     1.2750
R3     1.2780-1.2850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

28.99

Buy
20-DMA   1.2830 Buy
50-DMA   1.2961 Sell
100-DMA   1.3009 Buy
200-DMA   1.2950 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.996 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY109.20/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.62/USD and settled the day down by 0.101% at JPY109.36/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 110.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 109.55-109.05 and 108.40-107.70. Long positions above 109.50-107.70 with targets of 110.00-110.60-111.5 and 111.90-112.25 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     109.50
S2     109.05
S3     108.40-107.70

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     110.00-110.60
R2     111.50
R3     112.00-112.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.291 Buy
20-DMA   110.19 Sell
50-DMA   111.89 Sell
100-DMA   110.54 Buy
200-DMA   111.40 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   11.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

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