AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares fell on Tuesday as weak economic indicators and an intensifying Sino-U.S. trade war inflamed concerns about global growth, supporting safe-haven assets such as bonds Investor focus has shifted to monetary policy this week with Australia’s central bank cutting its cash rate to a record low on Tuesday, and India tipped to ease on Thursday Comments from the Federal Reserve on Monday, meanwhile, raised expectations the U.S. central bank is moving closer to a rate cut, as did a closely watched U.S. factory survey.The ECB holds its next policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to keep settings unchanged though there is growing speculation it could shift to a more dovish footing. Underscoring slowdown concerns, a factory survey on Monday showed U.S. manufacturing growth eased in May to its weakest pace in more than two-and-a-half years, defying expectations for a modest rebound. Hostile rhetoric between the United States and China continued on Monday as Washington accused Chinese negotiators of backpedalling on important elements of a trade deal that had been largely agreed by both sides Adding to broader investor worries are fears that U.S. antitrust regulators could target Alphabet, Facebook, Apple and Amazon. News of U.S. government plans to investigate the tech giants dragged down tech shares on Monday, driving the Nasdaq 1.61% lower to 7,333.02. The drop took the index more than 10% lower than its May 3 closing record. The fall in the two-year yield reflects raised expectations of a more accommodative Fed. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard on Monday said a rate cut “may be warranted soon” given risks to global growth posed by trade tensions and weak U.S. inflation.
  • The U.S. dollar hit three-week lows against a currency basket on Tuesday as growing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve pressured Treasury yields, while persistent concerns over the global growth outlook boosted the safe haven yen. The benchmark 10-year Treasury's yield fell to its lowest since September 2017 overnight, near 2%, after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said a rate cut "may be warranted soon" given weak U.S. inflation and the threat to economic growth posed by global trade tensions. Other strategists were less bearish on the dollar, arguing that rate cuts had already been priced into the currency and noting that if global growth does worsen, the dollar should benefit from its safe-haven credentials. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and investors are also eyeing flash euro zone inflation data due at 0900 GMT. Analysts remain cautious on its prospects. The British pound was little changed at 1.2656 up from a five-month trough of 1.2560 set on Friday.Sterling has fallen on the prospect of a eurosceptic prime minister replacing Theresa May who could push for a more decisive break from the European Union, Britain's largest trading partner. Other strategists were less bearish on the dollar, arguing that rate cuts had already been priced into the currency and noting that if global growth does worsen, the dollar should benefit from its safe-haven credential. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday, and investors are also eyeing flash euro zone inflation data due at 0900 GMT. Analysts remain cautious on its prospects. The British pound was little changed at 1.2656 up from a five-month trough of 1.2560 set on Friday. Sterling has fallen on the prospect of a eurosceptic prime minister replacing Theresa May who could push for a more decisive break from the European Union, Britain's largest trading partner.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday as an economic slowdown starts to dent energy demand, but markets won some support after Saudi Arabia said a consensus was emerging with other producers about extending supply cuts. That has come as financial traders sell out of energy markets amid growing concerns about the outlook for the world economy amid the trade war between the United States and China To prevent oversupply and prop up the market, the Middle East dominated producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with some allies including Russia, has been withholding supply since the start of the year to prop up the market The group plans to decide later this month or in early July whether to continue withholding suppl. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that a consensus was emerging among producers to continue working "to sustain market stability" in the second-half of the year. Producers are concerned that the economic slowdown will reduce fuel consumption. South Korea's economy shrank by 0.4% in the first quarter while core inflation slowed to a near 20-year low in May, data showed on Tuesday, pointing to a further economic slowdown in Asia Further pressuring oil prices and undermining OPEC's efforts to tighten the market has been surging U.S. output, which has made America the world's biggest crude producer, at 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) at the end of May, versus 11.11 million bpd produced in Russia and 9.65 million bpd pumped out of the ground in Saudi Arabia. With U.S. production surging, more of its oil is being exported, with a record of six super-tankers scheduled for loading at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) between late May and early June.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
4th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,331-1,340 1,346 1,350-1,357
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 53.50-54.00 54.80 55.50-56.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1330 1.1390 1.1440
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2750 1.2780-1.2850
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
4th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,324-1316 1,309 1,300-1,294
Silver-XAG 14.70-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 52.50-51.90 51.40 50.90-50.00
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1200 1.1150 1.1100-1.1070
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2550 1.2500-1.2450
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (4th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1327.90/oz and low of US$1305.29/oz. Gold up by 1.316% at US$1324.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1324-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1331-1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1331-1356 keeping stop loss closing above 1354, targeting 1324-1316-1309 and 1300-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,324-1316
S2     1,309
S3     1,300-1,294
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,331-1,340
R2     1,346
R3     1,350-1,357

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

73.052

Buy
20-DMA   1289.76 Buy
50-DMA  

1287.55

Buy
100-DMA   1297.68 Buy
200-DMA   1261.84 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   96.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   2.940 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.81/oz and low of US$14.56/oz. Silver settled up by 1.296% at US$14.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.70-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.59 Sell
50-DMA   14.84 Sell
100-DMA   15.20 Sell
200-DMA   14.88 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   86.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$54.64/bbl, intraday low of US$52.13/bbl and settled down by 0.836% to close at US$52.87/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.50-56.00 with stop loss at 56.00; targeting 53.50-54.00-54.80 and 55.50-56.00. Buy above 53.50-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 53.50-54.00 and 54.80-55.50-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.50-51.90
S2     51.40
S3     50.90-50.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.50-54.00
R2     54.80
R3     55.50-56.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   22.196 Sell
20-DMA   60.11 Sell
50-DMA   61.82 Sell
100-DMA   58.65 Sell
200-DMA   59.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   6.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.906 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1159/EUR, high of US$1.1261/EUR and settled the day up by 0.723% to close at US$1.1240/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1280-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250-1.1200
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1100-1.1070

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280-1.1330
R2     1.1390
R3     1.1440

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.0635 Buy
20-DMA   1.1186 Buy
50-DMA   1.1209 Buy
100-DMA   1.1276 Sell
200-DMA   1.1375 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2609/GBP, high of US$1.2673/GBP and settled the day up by 0.285% to close at US$1.2662/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2850 with targets at 1.2600-1.2550 and 1.2500-1.2450 stop should be below 1.2890. Buy above 1.2650-1.2450 with targets 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 and 1.2850-1.2890 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2500-1.2450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2750
R3     1.2780-1.2850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.555

Buy
20-DMA   1.2759 Buy
50-DMA   1.2927 Sell
100-DMA   1.3002 Buy
200-DMA   1.2947 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0094 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.44/USD and settled the day down by 0.122% at JPY108.05/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.79 Sell
50-DMA   110.78 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.35 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING