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  • The Mexican peso jumped 2% against the U.S. dollar after the U.S. and Mexico agreed on a migration deal to avoid tariffs on Mexican goods. U.S. President Donald Trump had previously said he would impose 5% import tariffs on all Mexican goods if Mexico failed to tighten its borders. The safe-haven yen fell 0.3% against the dollar to 108.50. The currency usually benefits during geopolitical or financial stress. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies rose 0.3% to 96.730. The index was under pressure earlier following the release of a weak jobs report. The U.S. economy created 75,000 jobs in May, much fewer than expected, while wage inflation eased, the Labor Department reported. The data raised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates. Analysts were already expecting a cut before the data came out, as intensifying trade tension between the U.S. and China raised concerns of a slowing global economic growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated last week that the central bank would “act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion." U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that the U.S. will “go forward with our plan” to impose more tariffs if discussions with China do not go well. However, effective capital controls will limit the yuan’s depreciation, the investment bank said.
  • Asian shares, European and U.S. stock futures rose on Monday after the United States shelved plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and as global investors hoped for lower U.S. interest rates on the back of lackluster jobs data. Global investors had feared that opening up another trade conflict, while still battling with China, could tip the United States and other economies into recession. The Mexican peso rallied more than 2% on Monday. But in China, the yuan slipped to its weakest this year after the country’s imports fell the most in nearly three years and as talks to end the Sino-U.S. dispute remained deadlocked Pictet Wealth Management said in a Monday note it has moved to a “tactically underweight” stance on global equities, citing “elevated valuations, mixed economic data and rising trade tensions”. That cautionary note was driven home by Chinese data on Monday morning showing imports in May contracted 8.5% from a year earlier, a much worse than expected outcome that signaled weak domestic consumption. Exports, however, unexpectedly rose 1.1% last month, though many suspect the uptick is linked to front-loading of shipments by firms to avoid higher U.S. tariffs In the United States, expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates kept the dollar on the defensive after a weak jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 jobs last month, much smaller than the 185,000 additions estimated by economists in a Reuters poll. Wage growth, closely watched for its impact on inflation, cooled to 3.1 percent from a year earlier, the slowest annual increase since September. Just three months earlier, wages had been rising at their fastest rate in a decade. Fed funds rate futures prices, down on Monday after the Mexico deal, were still pricing in more than two 25-basis point rate cuts by the end of this year, with one almost fully priced in by July. The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is set for next week, on June 18-19. Many investors are still clinging to hopes that Trump will meet Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 leaders’ meeting late this month to seek a compromise on trade and other economic issues The meeting has some parallels with their Buenos Aires summit last December that postponed a tariff hike, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Saturday. G20 finance leaders on Sunday acknowledged “intensified” trade tensions’ risks to global growth, but did not call for a resolution of the U.S.-China dispute.
  • Oil prices rose on Monday after Saudi Arabia said producer club OPEC and Russia should restrict supplies to current levels, while Washington's withdrawal of a tariff threat against Mexico removed a cloud over the global economy. However, traders said concerns about the health of the global economy and the impact on fuel demand were still weighing on oil market sentiment. Traders said crude prices were rising following statements by OPEC's biggest producer Saudi Arabia on Friday that the group was close to agreeing extending supply cuts The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-members, including Russia, known collectively as "OPEC+", have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices. Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets, said stronger stock markets also supported oil futures. Stock markets rose on Monday after a deal between the United States and Mexico to combat illegal migration from Central America late last week removed the threat of U.S. tariffs on goods imported from Mexico But analysts said there were still concerns about the health of the global economy, with the United States and China locked in a trade war. China's crude oil imports slipped to around 40.23 million tonnes (9.47 million barrels per day), down from an all-time peak of 43.73 million tonnes in April, customs data showed on Monday, as the world's top importer of the commodity curbed shipments from Iran amid tighter U.S. sanctions. Slowing demand has also contributed to a slump into negative territory in refining profits for Asian naphtha, an important feedstock for the petroleum industry, to levels not seen in over a decade.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,334-1,340 1,346 1,350-1,357
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 54.80-55.50 56.00 57.00-57.90
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1390 1.1440 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2750 1.2780-1.2850
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,324-1316 1,309 1,300-1,294
Silver-XAG 14.70-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 54.00-53.50 52.50 51.90-51.40
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1250 1.1200 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2550 1.2500-1.2450
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (10th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1348.20/oz and low of US$1330.20/oz. Gold up by 0.379% at US$1340.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1324-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1331-1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1334-1356 keeping stop loss closing above 1354, targeting 1324-1316-1309 and 1300-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,324-1316
S2     1,309
S3     1,300-1,294
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,334-1,340
R2     1,346
R3     1,350-1,357

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.381

Buy
20-DMA   1298.64 Buy
50-DMA  

1290.61

Buy
100-DMA   1298.93 Buy
200-DMA   1264.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.142 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.13/oz and low of US$14.84/oz. Silver settled down by 0.853% at US$15.00/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.70-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.60 Sell
50-DMA   14.82 Sell
100-DMA   15.18 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$54.38/bbl, intraday low of US$52.69/bbl and settled up by 1.711% to close at US$54.09/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.80-57.90 with stop loss at 57.90; targeting 54.00-53.50-52.50 and 51.90-51.40. Buy above 54.00-51.40 with risk daily closing below 51.50 and targeting 54.80-55.50-56.00 and 57.00-57.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.00-53.50
S2     52.50
S3     51.90-51.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.80-55.50
R2     56.00
R3     57.00-57.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   35.483 Sell
20-DMA   58.03 Sell
50-DMA   61.18 Sell
100-DMA   58.69 Sell
200-DMA   59.58 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   67.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.368 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1250/EUR, high of US$1.1347/EUR and settled the day up by 0.514% to close at US$1.1332/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1280-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1310-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330-1.1390
R2     1.1440
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.3553 Buy
20-DMA   1.1199 Buy
50-DMA   1.1213 Buy
100-DMA   1.1273 Sell
200-DMA   1.1367 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2687/GBP, high of US$1.2762/GBP and settled the day up by 0.346% to close at US$1.2737/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2850 with targets at 1.2600-1.2550 and 1.2500-1.2450 stop should be below 1.2890. Buy above 1.2650-1.2450 with targets 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 and 1.2850-1.2890 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2500-1.2450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2750
R3     1.2780-1.2850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.555

Buy
20-DMA   1.2759 Buy
50-DMA   1.2927 Sell
100-DMA   1.3002 Buy
200-DMA   1.2947 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0094 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.87/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.61/USD and settled the day up by 0.294% at JPY108.19/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.79 Sell
50-DMA   110.78 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.35 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

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