AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks, led by Chinese shares, gained on Tuesday as markets basked in relief following the U.S. decision to hold off from imposing import tariffs on Mexico as the two governments agreed a deal to combat illegal migration from Central America. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.7% after China said on Monday that it will allow local governments to use proceeds from special bonds as capital for major investment projects in a bid to support the slowing economy. U.S. stocks extended their recent climb on Monday, with the Dow rising for the sixth trading day. Relief that the United States had stepped back from an immediate imposition of tariffs on Mexico encouraged buyers, though U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned the United States could still slap tariffs on Mexico if not enough progress was made on its commitment to stem illegal immigration. While global markets have been given some reprieve, fresh U.S. trade threats against China were seen limiting any major boost to investor sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was ready to impose another round of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports if he cannot make progress in trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit. The U.S. president has repeatedly said he expected to meet Xi at the June 28-29 summit in Osaka, Japan, although China is yet to confirm any such meeting. Economists at Societe Generale said in a note that “the probability of the U.S.-China trade conflict drawing to an amicable conclusion has decreased significantly over the past few weeks. The Treasury market has experience volatility over the past week, with the 10-year yield having fallen to a near two-year low of 2.053% on Friday after a soft U.S. jobs report raised expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Fed holds its next policy meeting on June 18-19. The prospect of the central bank lowering rates this year had already risen earlier last week after a number of Fed officials including Chairman Jerome Powell hinted they were open to easing monetary policy.
  • U.S. job openings fell slightly in April, but a surge in hiring to a record high suggested strong demand for labor before a recent escalation in trade tensions that was partly blamed for a sharp slowdown in employment growth last month. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Monday also showed an uptick in layoffs, though they remained at historically low levels. Trade tensions between the United States and China worsened following a move by President Donald Trump in early May to impose additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 bn of Chinese goods, prompting retaliation by Beijing. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, slipped to a seasonally adjusted 7.4 mn from 7.5 mn in March, the government said. The job openings rate was unchanged at 4.7%. Hiring jumped by 240K jobs in April to 5.9 mn, the highest level since the government started tracking the series in 2000. The hiring rate increased to 3.9% from 3.8% in March. The economy created only 75K jobs in May after adding 224K positions in April, the government reported last Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged near a 50-yr low of 3.6%. Vacancies in the federal government increased by 22K jobs in April. But job openings decreased by 172K in the professional and business services sector. The increase in hiring was concentrated in the private sector, with employers in the real estate and rental and leasing industries filling 34K vacancies in April.
  • The yen eased on Tuesday as investors' risk appetite ticked up after the United States shelved plans to impose tariffs on Mexico, though fresh U.S. trade threats against China tempered overall market sentiment. Financial markets over the last year have been gripped by fears of escalating trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, stoking worries over the outlook for global growth. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he was ready to impose another round of tariffs on Chinese imports if he does not reach a trade deal with China's president at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan near the end of the month. Since two days of talks to settle the U.S.-China trade dispute last month in Washington ended in a stalemate, Trump has repeatedly said he expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 gathering. China has not confirmed any such meeting. Broader market sentiment got a lift from the U.S.-Mexico trade and migration deal, sending U.S. government bond yields higher overnight. Investors were hesitant to take on more risk because of "uncertainty" about what Trump does in relation to China ahead of the G20 summit, he said. The single currency dipped on Monday after two sources familiar with the European Central Bank's policy discussions said on the weekend that a rate cut was firmly in play if the bloc's economy stagnates again after expanding by 0.4% in the first quarter.The euro rallied nearly 1.5% last week after the ECB said rates would stay "at their present levels" until mid-2020 instead of hinting at rate cuts, as some had expected.
  • Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday on expectations that producer group OPEC and its allies will keep withholding supply to prevent prices from tumbling amid a broad economic slowdown which has started eating away at fuel demand growth. Prices fell by around 1% in the previous session and crude futures are down by some 20% from their 2019 peaks in late April, dragged lower by a widespread economic downturn that has started to impact oil consumption. Russia on Monday said it might support an extension of supply cuts that have been in place since January, warning oil prices could fall as low as $30 per barrel if producers supply too much crude. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices. OPEC+ is due to meet in late June or early July to decide output policy for the rest of the year. FGE said global crude oil demand growth could drop below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, down from previous expectations of 1.3 to 1.4 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,334-1,340 1,346 1,350-1,357
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 54.00-54.80 55.50 56.00-57.00
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1390 1.1440 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2700 1.2750 1.2780-1.2850
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,324-1316 1,309 1,300-1,294
Silver-XAG 14.60-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 53.50 52.50 51.90-51.40
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1250 1.1200 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2550 1.2500-1.2450
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (11th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1337.65/oz and low of US$1325,05/oz. Gold down by 0.662% at US$1327.79/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1324-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1331-1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1334-1356 keeping stop loss closing above 1354, targeting 1324-1316-1309 and 1300-1294.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,324-1316
S2     1,309
S3     1,300-1,294
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,334-1,340
R2     1,346
R3     1,350-1,357

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

66.381

Buy
20-DMA   1298.64 Buy
50-DMA  

1290.61

Buy
100-DMA   1298.93 Buy
200-DMA   1264.15 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   12.142 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.99/oz and low of US$14.63/oz. Silver settled down by 2.021% at US$14.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.60-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.60 Sell
50-DMA   14.82 Sell
100-DMA   15.18 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$54.90/bbl, intraday low of US$53.19/bbl and settled down by 1.573% to close at US$53.54/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.00-57.00 with stop loss at 57.00; targeting 53.50-52.50 and 51.90-51.40. Buy above 53.50-51.40 with risk daily closing below 51.50 and targeting 54.00-54.80-55.5 and 56.00-57.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.50
S2     52.50
S3     51.90-51.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.00-54.80
R2     55.50
R3     56.00-57.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.25 Sell
20-DMA   57.63 Sell
50-DMA   61.00 Sell
100-DMA   58.68 Sell
200-DMA   59.50 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   74.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.381 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1289/EUR, high of US$1.1330/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0971% to close at US$1.1310/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1280-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1310-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330-1.1390
R2     1.1440
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   62.3553 Buy
20-DMA   1.1199 Buy
50-DMA   1.1213 Buy
100-DMA   1.1273 Sell
200-DMA   1.1367 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2652/GBP, high of US$1.2744/GBP and settled the day down by 0.392% to close at US$1.2684/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2850 with targets at 1.2600-1.2550 and 1.2500-1.2450 stop should be below 1.2890. Buy above 1.2650-1.2450 with targets 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 and 1.2850-1.2890 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2600
S2     1.2550
S3     1.2500-1.2450

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700
R2     1.2750
R3     1.2780-1.2850

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

34.555

Buy
20-DMA   1.2759 Buy
50-DMA   1.2927 Sell
100-DMA   1.3002 Buy
200-DMA   1.2947 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   34.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0094 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.30/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.71/USD and settled the day down by 0.045% at JPY108.42/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.79 Sell
50-DMA   110.78 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.35 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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