AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares slumped on Thursday as the Hong Kong market was hit for the second straight session following a day of massive street protests, while oil prices flirted with five-month lows due to higher U.S. crude inventories and a bleak demand outlook. Fading hopes that the United States and China will clinch a deal on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit meeting in Osaka on June 28-29 also hurt sentiment and drove bond yields down. The selling pressure in Hong Kong came after legislation that would allow citizens to be extradited to China triggered a mass protest and some of the worst unrest seen in the territory since Britain handed it back to Chinese rule in 1997. Government data showed on Wednesday U.S. consumer prices barely rose in May, with the core annual inflation slowing to 2.0%, compared to a peak of 2.4% last July, adding to the growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in coming months. Investors will be looking to what Fed policymakers will say after its next policy meeting on June 18-19, with Fed Funds rate futures pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut for the subsequent policy review on July 30-31. That is completely at odds with the Fed’s projection three months ago, when policy makers saw gradual rate hikes in coming years. The euro stood little changed at $1.1293, having taken a hit on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering sanctions over Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project and warned Germany against being dependent on Russia for energy. The British pound is on the back foot after British lawmakers defeated an attempt led by the opposition Labour Party to try to block a no-deal Brexit by seizing control of the parliamentary agenda from the government.
  • Gold prices climbed on Thursday in Asia as risk sentiment remained weak and expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve also provided support. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting due on June 19, but traders have been speculating on the possibility of rate cuts before the end of this year due to to economic fallout from global trade tensions. Last week after a number of Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, hinted they were open to easing monetary policy. Investor sentiment also took a hit this week after U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade deal would not be signed until China returns to terms agreed earlier this year. The U.S. stocks snapped a seven-day winning streak, while Asian stocks also fell today.
  • The yen gained ground on Thursday as renewed risk aversion in the broader market underpinned safe haven demand, while the U.S. dollar held steady against a basket of the other major currencies after rebounding from two-month lows. Market sentiment deteriorated overnight amid uncertainty over whether the U.S. and China can reach a deal on the sidelines of the upcoming G-20 summit meeting in Japan. The risk aversion and falling stock markets are supporting the yen as usual,” said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager for State Street Bank and Trust. Australia’s unemployment rate stayed stuck at 5.2% in May, underlining the case for another cut in interest rates as soon as next month. Despite mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy in coming months, the dollar fared better against other major currencies, such as the euro, pound and commodity currencies, which had troubles of their own. The euro took a hit after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he was considering sanctions over Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project and warned Germany against being dependent on Russia for energy. Sterling slipped as British lawmakers on Wednesday defeated an attempt led by the opposition Labour Party to try to block a no-deal Brexit. Data released on Wednesday showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in May, pointing to moderate inflation that together with a slowing economy increased pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates this year.
  • Oil prices recovered slightly on Thursday in Asia after a slump in the previous session on crude inventories data. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its regular weekly report on Wednesday that crude oil inventories increased by 2.21 million barrels in the week to June 7. That was compared to forecasts for a stockpile draw of 0.48 million barrels after a surge of 6.77 million barrels in the previous week. The EIA report also showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.76 million barrels, compared to expectations for a gain of 0.74 million barrels, although distillate stockpiles fell unexpectedly by 1 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a build of 1.14 million. The data came after the EIA slashed forecasts for 2019 world demand growth in a monthly report on Tuesday. Looking forward, traders will pay close attention to the upcoming meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), due later this month, to see if it would continue with oil production cuts. The energy minister of the United Arab Emirates, Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, said earlier this week that OPEC members were close to reaching an agreement to continue reducing output. Two tankers were hit in suspected attacks in the Gulf of Oman and the crew have been evacuated, shipping sources said on Thursday, a month after a similar incident in which four tankers in the region were struck. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, part of the Royal Navy, earlier said it was aware of an incident in the Gulf of Oman. Oil prices surged by 4% after the report that raises tensions in the Gulf, which have been heightened by a dispute between Iran and the United States. The area is near the Strait of Hormuz, a major strategic waterway through which a fifth of global oil consumption passes from Middle East producers. There was no immediate confirmation from ship operators or authorities in Oman or the United Arab Emirates, in whose territorial waters four tankers were hit last month. The shipping newspaper Tradewinds reported that a tanker owned by Norway's Frontline had been struck by a torpedo off the coast of Fujairah, one of the emirates in the United Arab Emirates. It cited unnamed industry source.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
13th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,340 1,346 1,350-1,357
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 52.50-53.50 54.00 54.80-55.50
EURO/USD 1.1330-1.1390 1.1440 1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.2750 1.2780 1.2850-1.2900
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
13th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,334-1,324 1,316 1,309-1,300
Silver-XAG 14.60-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 51.90-51.40 51.00 50.50
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1250 1.1200 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2650 1.2600 1.2550-1.2500
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (13th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1338.29/oz and low of US$1325.97/oz. Gold down by 0.508% at US$1333.33/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1340-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1340-1356 keeping stop loss closing above 1354, targeting 1330-1324-1316 and 1309-1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,334-1,324
S2     1,316
S3     1,309-1,300
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,340
R2     1,346
R3     1,350-1,357

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.740

Buy
20-DMA   1301.94 Buy
50-DMA  

1292.00

Buy
100-DMA   1299.87 Buy
200-DMA   1265.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.975 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$14.86/oz and low of US$14.71/oz. Silver settled up by 0.264% at US$14.71/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.60-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.61 Sell
50-DMA   14.80 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$53.21/bbl, intraday low of US$50.89/bbl and settled down by 3.66% to close at US$51.24/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.50-56.00 with stop loss at 56.00; targeting 52.50-51.90 and 51.40-51.00. Buy above 52.50-51.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 53.50-54.00-54.80 and 55.5-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.90-51.40
S2     51.00
S3     50.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.50-53.50
R2     54.00
R3     54.80-55.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   30.776 Sell
20-DMA   57.08 Sell
50-DMA   60.79 Sell
100-DMA   58.67 Sell
200-DMA   59.41 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.436 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1281/EUR, high of US$1.1342/EUR and settled the day down by 0.335% to close at US$1.1286/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1280-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1310-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1250
S2     1.1200
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1330-1.1390
R2     1.1440
R3     1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.835 Buy
20-DMA   1.1216 Buy
50-DMA   1.1218 Buy
100-DMA   1.1271 Sell
200-DMA   1.1362 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   66.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2680/GBP, high of US$1.2757/GBP and settled the day down by 0.290% to close at US$1.2687/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2900 with targets at 1.2650-1.2600 and 1.2550-1.2500 stop should be below 1.2890. Buy above 1.2650-1.2500 with targets 1.2700-1.2750 and 1.2850-1.2890 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650
S2     1.2600
S3     1.2550-1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700-1.2750
R2     1.2780
R3     1.2850-1.2900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.082

Buy
20-DMA   1.2681 Buy
50-DMA   1.2872 Sell
100-DMA   1.2985 Buy
200-DMA   1.2940 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0094 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.34/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.79/USD and settled the day up by 0.0793% at JPY108.50/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.79 Sell
50-DMA   110.78 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.35 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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