AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks were subdued on Friday ahead of key Chinese data that could provide more clues on how heavily the U.S.-Sino trade war is weighing on the economy, while oil prices were supported by supply concerns after attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Economists polled by Reuters expect industrial production in China to have risen 5.5% in May from 5.4% in April and believe retail sales increased 8.1% from 7.2% the previous month. But even if the data is better than forecast, expectations of more stimulus in China are growing as the trade dispute threatens to escalate into a full-blown trade war that could push the global economy into recession. For the week, it was headed for a gain of nearly 1%, as global stock markets were lifted by factors including expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and relief over a U.S.-Mexico tariff deal. Wall Street shares have had a strong run in June on hopes the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy soon to counter pressure on the U.S. economy from the escalating trade war. The S&P 500 index is up about 5% so far for the month. The Fed’s June 18-19 meeting will give investors an opportunity to see if the Fed’s monetary policy stance is in sync with market expectations for a near-term rate cut. A Reuters poll this week showed a growing number of economists expect a Fed rate cut this year but the majority still expect it to stay on hold. The United States has blamed Iran for the assaults. But U.S. and European security officials as well as regional analysts left open the possibility that Iranian proxies, or someone else entirely, might have been responsible.
  • The dollar held steady early in Asia on Friday, and was set ot show a weekly rise as investor focus turned to next week's Federal Reserve meeting for cues on a possible interest rate cut in light of rising risks to trade and global growth. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) two-day policy meeting is set to begin on Tuesday. With trade tensions rising, U.S. growth slowing and hiring in May declining, markets have priced in at least two rate cuts by the end of 2019. Investors' attention on Friday will also be on U.S. retail sales data due later in the day for insights into the state of domestic demand in the world's biggest economy. Against the yen, the dollar dipped 0.05% to 108.34 yen. The yen showed little reaction to the latest round of trade negotiations between Tokyo and Washington on Thursday. Japan and the United States deepened their understanding over each other's position on trade and will continue discussions, Japan's economy minister Toshimitsu Motegi said after meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. Motegi said the two would probably meet again ahead of the G20 summit meeting in Osaka, Japan late this month. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting on June 19, but markets believe the likelihood of a rate cut before the end of the year has increased due to slowing inflation and rising trade tensions. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump declined to set a deadline on increasing import tariffs on Chinese goods, insisting that the two countries would eventually make a deal but taking responsibility for the delay in the meantime. He previously said a deal would not be signed unless China returns to terms agreed earlier this year. U.S. retail sales data, which is due later in the day, is also expected to be in focus. Markets expect industrial production in China to have risen 5.5% in May from 5.4% in April and believe retail sales increased 8.1% from 7.2% the previous month.
  • Gold prices gained on Friday in Asia on rate cut expectations, but gains were capped by a rebound in U.S. stocks. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting on June 19, but markets believe the likelihood of a rate cut before the end of the year has increased due to slowing inflation and rising trade tensions. Expectations of a cut rose further after data showed the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly for the week ended June 08. Lower interest rates decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. It would also put pressure on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Overnight, U.S. stocks ended higher as energy shares outperformed following reports of suspected attacks on two tankers off the coast of Iran that boosted oil prices.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday in Asia after two oil tanker ships off the coast of Iran were attacked. It wasn't clear who was responsible for the latest hit. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of carrying out the attacks, calling the Islamic Republic "a threat to international peace and stability". An Iranian official was quoted saying by BBC that Tehran had "nothing to do" with the attacks. Oil prices were under pressure earlier this week after weekly data showed another big jump in U.S. crude stockpiles. Ongoing demand fears amid Sino-U.S. trade tension were also cited as a headwind In other news, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday cut its forecast for oil demand growth in 2019 from 1.21 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.14 million bpd. The cartel noted that “significant downside risks from escalating trade disputes spilling over to global demand growth remain.” Elsewhere, citing Russian energy minister Alexander Novak, Japan’s Nikkei newspaper reported that OPEC and other producers including Russia are in talks to cooperate on oil supplies on a long-term basis.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350-1,357 1,362 1,370
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 53.00-53.50 54.00 54.80-55.50
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1330 1.1390 1.1440-1.1500
GBP/USD 1.2700-1.27501.2700-1.2750 1.2780 1.2850-1.2900
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,334 1,324 1,316-1,309
Silver-XAG 14.60-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 52.50-51.90 51.40 51.00-50.50
EURO/USD 1.1250 1.12001.1250 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2650 1.2600 1.2550-1.2500
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (14th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1343.09/oz and low of US$1322.25/oz. Gold up by 0.617% at US$1341.87/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1340-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370, targeting 1344-1336-1330 and 1324-1316.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,334
S2     1,324
S3     1,316-1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350-1,357
R2     1,362
R3     1,370

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.740

Buy
20-DMA   1301.94 Buy
50-DMA  

1292.00

Buy
100-DMA   1299.87 Buy
200-DMA   1265.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.975 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$14.92/oz and low of US$14.72/oz. Silver settled up by 0.867% at US$14.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.60-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.61 Sell
50-DMA   14.80 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.012637.246 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$53.61/bbl, intraday low of US$51.12/bbl and settled up by 2.293% to close at US$52.40/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.00-56.00 with stop loss at 56.00; targeting 52.50-51.90 and 51.40-51.00. Buy above 52.50-51.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 53.50-54.00-54.80 and 55.5-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.50-51.90
S2     51.40
S3     51.00-50.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.00-53.50
R2     54.00
R3     54.80-55.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.776 Sell
20-DMA   55.08 Sell
50-DMA   60.37 Sell
100-DMA   58.65 Sell
200-DMA   59.23 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.436 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1267/EUR, high of US$1.1303/EUR and settled the day down by 0.095% to close at US$1.1275/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1250-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1280-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1250
S2     1.12001.1250
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280-1.1330
R2     1.1390
R3     1.1440-1.1500

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.875 Buy
20-DMA   1.1221 Buy
50-DMA   1.1219 Buy
100-DMA   1.1270 Sell
200-DMA   1.1362 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   37.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2661/GBP, high of US$1.2706/GBP and settled the day down by 0.119% to close at US$1.2671/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2900 with targets at 1.2650-1.2600 and 1.2550-1.2500 stop should be below 1.2890. Buy above 1.2650-1.2500 with targets 1.2700-1.2750 and 1.2850-1.2890 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650
S2     1.2600
S3     1.2550-1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700-1.27501.2700-1.2750
R2     1.2780
R3     1.2850-1.2900

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

43.082

Buy
20-DMA   1.268143.082 Buy
50-DMA   1.2872 Sell
100-DMA   1.2985 Buy
200-DMA   1.2940 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   43.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0094 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY108.35/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.53/USD and settled the day down by 0.138% at JPY108.35/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

Technical in Focus: In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.79 Sell
50-DMA   110.78 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.35 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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