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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares wobbled near one-week lows on Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of a closely-watched Federal Reserve meeting, while political tensions in the Middle East and Hong Kong kept risk appetite in check. Asian markets got a quick boost after Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped as much as 1.4%. At the weekend, the territory’s leader Carrie Lam climbed down on a bill that would have allowed extradition to China. The Hang Seng fell for three sessions in a row through Friday, after the extradition bill triggered mass protests and some of the worst unrest seen in the territory since Britain handed it back to Chinese rule in 1997. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Sunday that President Donald Trump would raise the issue of Hong Kong’s human rights with China’s President Xi Jinping at a potential meeting of the two leaders at the G20 summit in Japan later this month. Wall Street stocks ended lower on Friday as investors turned cautious before this week’s Fed meeting, while a warning from Broadcom on slowing demand weighed on chipmakers and added to U.S.-China trade worries. Investors were waiting for more clues from the Fed after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks amid worries about mounting fallout from the U.S.-Sino trade war. Strong U.S. retail sales data on Friday rolled back expectations of a Fed rate cut at this week’s meeting to 17.5%, from 31% shortly before the release of the data on Friday. But bets of an easing by the July meeting remain high at 84%. A private gauge on eurozone’s manufacturing sector as well as U.S.-China trade frictions will also be watched closely, Chandler said. Financial markets were sideswiped by a sudden escalation in Sino-U.S. trade tensions in early May, with growing anxiety among investors that a protracted standoff could tip the global economy into recession. Hopes that global central banks will keep the money spigots open have helped to temper some of the fears, and all eyes are on the Fed’s two-day meeting starting on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan also meets this week and is widely expected to reinforce its commitment to retain a massive stimulus program for some time to come. The retail sales report also sent short-dated U.S. Treasury yields higher, flattening the yield curve. A Reuters poll showed a growing number of economists expect the Fed policymakers to cut interest rates this year, although the majority still see it holding steady.
  • The dollar held near a two-week high against its major rivals on Monday ahead of a crucial U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that many expect will lay the groundwork for an interest rate cut to bolster the world's largest economy. While strong U.S. retail sales on Friday reduced the already-low chance of an easing this week and lifted the dollar, investors are betting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would leave the door open to future rate cuts in light of increasing economic strains. Expectations of an interest rate cut at the Fed's June 18-19 meeting fell from 28.3% on Thursday to 21.7% in the wake of the strong retail data, according to tool. However, bets for monetary easing at the July meeting remain high at 85%. An escalating trade war between the United States and China has rippled through global supply chains in a hit to business investment, factory output and world growth. Yet, the dollar's Fed-driven downside is being tempered by policy easings in other countries. Fears a protracted Sino-U.S. standoff could tip the global economy into recession have prompted rate cuts in many Asian countries, including India, Philippines, Malaysia, New Zealand and Australia. The European Central Bank also recently raised the prospect of even more stimulus, while the Bank of Japan is widely expected to reinforce its commitment to main a massive stimulus program for a while yet. Later on Monday the U.S. Trade Representative's Office will begin seven days of testimony from U.S. companies about President Donald Trump's plan to hit another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods with tariffs. Some traders are watching these hearings, because complaints from U.S. businesses, which bear the cost of duties on goods they import, could sway Trump to delay additional tariff hikes.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve, facing fresh demands by President Donald Trump to cut interest rates, is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a policy meeting this week but possibly lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. New economic projections that will accompany the U.S. central bank’s policy statement on Wednesday will provide the most direct insight yet into how deeply policymakers have been influenced by the U.S.-China trade war, Trump’s insistence on lower interest rates, and recent weaker economic data. Analysts expect the “dot plot” of year-end forecasts for the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate - the federal funds rate - will show a growing number of policymakers are open to cutting rates in the coming months, though nowhere near as aggressively as investors expect or Trump wants.
  • Oil prices gained on Monday in Asia amid Middle East tensions. Attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman were cited as providing continuing support to the oil markets. Prices had jumped as much as 4.5% on Thursday following the news. The U.S. blamed Iran for the attacks, as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said it was “unmistakable” that Iran was responsible for the hit. His comments prompted a denial and criticism from Tehran. Despite the gains on Thursday, oil prices still closed last week more than 2% lower amid reports of larger-than-expected oil stockpiles. A monthly report from the International Energy Agency that said the outlook for oil demand growth in 2019 also put pressure on prices. Elsewhere, the upcoming Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting is also being closely monitored. Saudi energy minister, Khalid al-Falih, said over the weekend that the meeting will probably move to the first week of July, instead of the original date of late June. Al-Falih added that he hopes members of OPEC could reach an agreement on extending oil output curbs.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
17th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350-1,357 1,362 1,370
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 53.00-53.50 54.00 54.80-55.50
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1280 1.1300 1.1340-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.2600-1.2650 1.2700 1.2750-1.2780
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
17th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,334 1,324 1,316-1,309
Silver-XAG 14.60-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 52.50-51.90 51.40 51.00-50.50
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1130-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2500 1.2475 1.2450-1.2405
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (17th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1343.48/oz and low of US$1337.75/oz. Gold down by 0.040% at US$1341.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1340-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370, targeting 1344-1336-1330 and 1324-1316.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,334
S2     1,324
S3     1,316-1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350-1,357
R2     1,362
R3     1,370

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.740

Buy
20-DMA   1301.94 Buy
50-DMA  

1292.00

Buy
100-DMA   1299.87 Buy
200-DMA   1265.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.975 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.10/oz and low of US$14.78/oz. Silver settled down by 0.114% at US$14.85/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.60-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.61 Sell
50-DMA   14.80 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$53.21/bbl, intraday low of US$51.92/bbl and settled up by 0.543% to close at US$52.69/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 53.00-56.00 with stop loss at 56.00; targeting 52.50-51.90 and 51.40-51.00. Buy above 52.50-51.00 with risk daily closing below 51.00 and targeting 53.50-54.00-54.80 and 55.5-56.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.50-51.90
S2     51.40
S3     51.00-50.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.00-53.50
R2     54.00
R3     54.80-55.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.776 Sell
20-DMA   55.08 Sell
50-DMA   60.37 Sell
100-DMA   58.65 Sell
200-DMA   59.23 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.436 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1201/EUR, high of US$1.1288/EUR and settled the day down by 0.576% to close at US$1.1210/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1280-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1130-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1250-1.1280
R2     1.1300
R3     1.1340-1.1390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.028 Buy
20-DMA   1.1220 Buy
50-DMA   1.1217 Buy
100-DMA   1.1267 Sell
200-DMA   1.1358 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2579/GBP, high of US$1.2681/GBP and settled the day down by 0.653% to close at US$1.2589/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2800 with targets at 1.2550-1.2500 and 1.2475-1.2450-1.2405 stop should be below 1.2800. Buy above 1.2550-1.2400 with targets 1.2600-1.2500 and 1.2700-1.2750-1.2800 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2550-1.2500
S2     1.2475
S3     1.2450-1.2405

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2600-1.2650
R2     1.2700
R3     1.2750-1.2780

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.275

Buy
20-DMA   1.2666 Buy
50-DMA   1.2853 Sell
100-DMA   1.2973 Buy
200-DMA   1.2940 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.996 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.15/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.58/USD and settled the day up by 0.209% at JPY108.56/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   27.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.79 Sell
50-DMA   110.78 Sell
100-DMA   110.58 Buy
200-DMA   111.35 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   7.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.466 Buy

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