AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting capped Asian stocks on Tuesday, while crude oil prices retreated as global growth worries overshadowed supply concerns stemming from recent Middle East tensions. Bucking the trend were Australian stocks, which rose 0.3% after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) last policy meeting pointed to the possibility of another interest rate cut. The Fed, facing fresh demands by U.S. President Donald Trump to cut interest rates, begins a two-day meeting later on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged this time but possibly lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. Fresh hopes for looser U.S. monetary policy have been a tonic for risk assets markets, which were buffeted last month by an escalation in the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. The S&P 500 has gained 5% this month after sliding in May on trade war fears. Focus is now on how close the Fed could be to cutting interest rates amid the raging U.S.-China trade war, signs of the economy losing steam and pressure by President Trump to ease policy.
  • The British pound was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia even after fears of a no-deal Brexit resurfaced. The GBP/USD pair was up 0.02% to 1.2532 by 1:18 AM ET (05:18 GMT). The pair was under pressure overnight following reports that former U.K. Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is now the front-runner to replace Prime Minister Theresa May Johnson has previously promised to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU “with or without a deal.” Odds of him succeeding May increased after one of his former rivals and EU supporter Matt Hancock reportedly backed him. The European Central Bank will meet in Portugal on Thursday. The Bank of England will also make an interest rate decision on the same day. In Asia, the Bank of Japan is also due to meet later this week. The dollar began falling overnight after manufacturing activity in the New York area fell to a two-and-a-half year low in June. The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that is set to kick off later in the day is expected to be the main focus later this week. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates unchanged this month. The USD/CNY pair traded near flat at 6.9265. Data from the Treasury Department revealed that China’s holdings of notes, bills and bonds declined by $7.5 billion in April to $1.11 trillion after Beijing its U.S. Treasury holdings to the lowest level in two years.
  • The British pound on Tuesday languished near this year's low on rising worries Boris Johnson, the front-runner to replace UK Prime Minister Theresa May, could put Britain on a path towards a dreaded no-deal Brexit. The yen and the euro were steadier, with investors holding out for trading clues from policy-setting meetings by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan as well as a conference organized by the European Central Bank, all scheduled this week. The U.S-China trade frictions and rising geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz after recent attacks on tankers are all undermining risk sentiment, he said. Sterling also fell to its weakest level since January against the euro, which climbed to 89.50 pence, compared to a two-year low of 84.56 touched just over a month ago. Former foreign minister Boris Johnson got a boost on Monday in his campaign to succeed May as one of his former rivals and EU supporter Matt Hancock backed him. That rattled markets as Johnson, the face of the official campaign to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum, has promised to lead the United Kingdom out of the EU with or without a deal. The pound could be in for a rough ride in coming days, with a raft of potentially market-moving events ahead, including consumer inflation and retail sales data, due on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday. The dollar was slightly undermined by the New York Fed's business index showing a record fall this month to its weakest level in more than 2-1/2 years. The Fed's two-day policy meeting starting later on Tuesday is the next major focus after markets have priced in more than two 25 basis-point rate cuts by year-end. That marks a sharp contrast to the Fed's official forecast in March, which showed policymakers deemed the next move would be a hike.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday in Asia as OPEC and its allies struggled to set a date for a meeting to discuss output policy. Concerns on reports that OPEC and its allies continued to struggle to set a date to discuss an extension to supply cuts were cited as headwind to prices today Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated at the weekend that the June 25 OPEC meeting and the June 26 conference of the cartel with its non-member allies called OPEC+ was more or less off because Russia wasn’t agreeable to those dates. Meanwhile, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said he was willing to holds talks in July, according to a Reuters report. It was previously expected the meeting would be held in late June. Oil prices received a boost since last week amid attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Traders are also paying close attention to developments in Sino-U.S. trade talks. U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping could meet at the G20 summit in Japan later this month to discuss trade-related issues. Trump has said he would meet Xi at the event, although China has not confirmed the meeting.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
18th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,350-1,357 1,362 1,370
Silver-XAG 15.05 15.30 15.60-16.00
Crude Oil 52.50-53.00 53.50 53.50 54.00-54.80
EURO/USD 1.1250-1.1280 1.1300 1.1340-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.2550--1.2600 1.2650 1.2700-1.2750
USD/JPY 109.05-109.50 110.00 110.60-111.50

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
18th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,340-1,334 1,324 1,316-1,309
Silver-XAG 14.60-14.30 13.90 13.50-13.20
Crude Oil 51.90 51.40 52.50-53.00
EURO/USD 1.1200-1.1175 1.1150 1.1130-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2500 1.2475 1.2450-1.2405
USD/JPY 108.00-107.70 107.00 106.50

Intra-Day Strategy (18th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1343.48/oz and low of US$1332.92/oz. Gold down by 0.164% at US$1339.57/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 200DMA (1253) and breakage below will call for 1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in positive territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1340-1294 with risk below 1294, targeting 1340-1346 and 1350-1357. Sell below 1350-1370 keeping stop loss closing above 1370, targeting 1344-1336-1330 and 1324-1316.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,340-1,334
S2     1,324
S3     1,316-1,309
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,350-1,357
R2     1,362
R3     1,370

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.740

Buy
20-DMA   1301.94 Buy
50-DMA  

1292.00

Buy
100-DMA   1299.87 Buy
200-DMA   1265.44 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   33.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   12.975 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$14.89/oz and low of US$14.78/oz. Silver settled down by 0.228% at US$14.82/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.70-13.20 targeting 15.05-15.30 and 15.60-15.90; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.05-16.00 with stop loss above 16.00; targeting 14.30-13.90 and 13.50-13.20.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.60-14.30
S2     13.90
S3     13.50-13.20

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05
R2     15.30
R3     15.60-16.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.976 Buy
20-DMA   14.61 Sell
50-DMA   14.80 Sell
100-DMA   15.16 Sell
200-DMA   14.89 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   37.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0126 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$52.94/bbl, intraday low of US$51.79/bbl and settled down by 0.997% to close at US$52.11/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 52.50-55.00 with stop loss at 55.00; targeting 51.90-51.40 and 51.00-50.50. Buy above 51.90-50.50 with risk daily closing below 50.50 and targeting 52.50-53.00-53.50 and 54.00-54.80.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     51.90
S2     51.40
S3     52.50-53.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.50-53.00
R2     53.50
R3     53.50 54.00-54.80

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   33.075 Sell
20-DMA   55.41 Sell
50-DMA   60.15 Sell
100-DMA   58.64 Sell
200-DMA   59.15 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   40.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.387 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1203/EUR, high of US$1.1246/EUR and settled the day up by 0.080% to close at US$1.1217/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1261), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1325-1.1410. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1200-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1440. Sell below 1.1280-1.1440 targeting 1.1250-1.1200-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.0950.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1200-1.1175
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1130-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1250-1.1280
R2     1.1300
R3     1.1340-1.1390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.028 Buy
20-DMA   1.1220 Buy
50-DMA   1.1217 Buy
100-DMA   1.1267 Sell
200-DMA   1.1358 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2531/GBP, high of US$1.2604/GBP and settled the day down by 0.373% to close at US$1.2532/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2550-1.2800 with targets at 1.2500-1.2475 and 1.2450-1.2405 stop should be below 1.2800. Buy above 1.2500-1.2400 with targets 1.2550-1.2600-1.2650 and 1.2700-1.2750-1.2800 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2500
S2     1.2475
S3     1.2450-1.2405

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2550--1.2600
R2     1.2650
R3     1.2700-1.2750

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

30.527

Buy
20-DMA   1.2655 Buy
50-DMA   1.2842 Sell
100-DMA   1.2967 Buy
200-DMA   1.2934 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.44/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.71/USD and settled the day up by 0.041% at JPY108.53/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 108.00-107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.05-107.70 with targets of 109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.70
S2     107.00
S3     106.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.05-109.50
R2     110.00
R3     110.60-111.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.317 Buy
20-DMA   109.13 Sell
50-DMA   110.37 Sell
100-DMA   110.51 Buy
200-DMA   111.27 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.574 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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