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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks slipped on Friday, as U.S.-Iran tensions and anxieties over Sino-U.S. trade talks left markets in the region struggling to match the euphoria on Wall Street over a possible U.S. interest rate cut next month. Fears of a military confrontation in the Middle East Gulf were raised after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone. The New York Times reported that U.S. President Donald Trump had approved military strikes on Friday against Iran in retaliation, but pulled back from launching the attacks. Safe haven gold advanced to a six-year high of $1,410.78 an ounce as geo-political tensions and the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates helped boost the precious metal. Gold has soared nearly 5% this week. The Fed signaled easing after the conclusion of its policy setting meeting on Wednesday, saying it was ready to battle growing global and domestic economic risks. Investors have pinned hopes on some sort of compromise emerging when U.S. President Donald Trump meets China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan on June 28-29. In currency markets, the prospect of U.S. interest rates being lowered put the dollar squarely on the defensive. With the Fed expected to ease policy soon, and with other central banks such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan seen following in their wake, government bonds were on a bullish footing.
  • The dollar kept losing ground to other major currencies on Friday in Asia after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled interest rates cut to prop up economic growth. The U.S. central bank suggested earlier in the week that it could ease monetary policy as early as next month amid mounting concerns over the economic impact of global trade tensions and subdued inflation. The 2019 G20 Summit in Osaka next week is attracting some attention where U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet amid the ongoing trade row. Both sides have confirmed a meeting between the two leaders on the sidelines of the summit. The dollar struggled to get on the front foot on Friday, and was poised for a weekly loss against major currencies after the U.S. Federal Reserve joined global peers with plans to cut interest rates to support flagging economic growth. The focus now shifts to whether the United States and China can resolve their trade row at a Group of 20 leader’s summit in Osaka next week, but analysts caution that chances of a decisive breakthrough are low. Money markets are pricing in three Fed rate cuts before year-end, starting with the next meeting in July, and are tipping as many as five cuts through mid-2020. Powell's rate tilt joined the Fed with global peers such as the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia this week on a path toward more policy stimulus to maintain economic growth. Some hedge funds were surprised by the Fed's dovish stance, leading to an unwinding of dollar-long positions built up before its meeting on Wednesday, analysts said. For the week the dollar was down 1.2% versus the yen, on course for the biggest decline since late March. China has confirmed that President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump will meet on the sidelines of G20 next weekend. The two countries have raised tariffs on each other's goods in a dispute about China's trading practices, hitting global trade and growth. Talks broke down last month, and some traders say chances for a truce next week are low. The Bank of England on Thursday struck a less dovish tone than other central banks as they voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at 0.75% and stuck to their message that rates would need to rise, so long as Britain avoids a damaging no-deal exit from the European Union.
  • Gold prices were flat during early morning trade in Asia Friday, just hours after hitting their highest point in more than five years driven by geopolitical tensions, the possibility of lower rates and weakness in the dollar. One key factor driving prices of safe haven gold, along with oil and other assets, are escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. On Thursday, Iran admitted shooting down a U.S. drone. The admission came just a week after two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil route. The U.S. also blames the tanker attacks on Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted that “Iran made a very big mistake”. During a meeting on Wednesday, the Fed did not change rates but suggested it could cut them later in the year. Lower rates tend to make gold more attractive.
  • Driven by simmering tensions between the U.S. and Iran, oil prices continued to trade higher during morning trade in Asia Friday hours after soaring to their highest level for the month. Iran admitted shooting down a U.S. drone on Thursday and President Donald Trump has tweeted that “Iran made a very big mistake”. Last week, two oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key route for oil out of the Middle East. The U.S. has blamed these attacks on Iran and announced plans to send 1,000 more troops to the region. Oil prices were also supported by drops in crude inventories in the U.S., as well as expectations that the US Federal Reserve would move to cut interest rates later this year.Kilduff believes prices could go even higher if tensions continue to mount, although Trump seemed to suggest on Thursday that Iran’s actions could have been accidental. Prices also climbed on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories fell by 3.11 million barrels in the week to June 14. Oil ramped higher after further attacks by Iran and its proxies on U.S. and Saudi assets in the Middle East prompted President Donald Trump to warn the Islamic Republic had made “a very big mistake. Front-month futures in New York were up 1.8%, after surging 5.4% on Thursday after Iran shot down an American drone just a week after two tankers were targeted in the region. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said they hit a Saudi Arabian power plant with a cruise missile, at least the third such attack on the kingdom’s infrastructure in a week. Trump appeared to downplay the Iranian drone downing, saying a “loose and stupid” individual -- rather than Iran’s top leaders -- may have been culpable.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
21st June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,405-1,415 1,425 1,433
Silver-XAG 15.35 15.60 16.00-16.20
Crude Oil 56.90-57.35 58.00 58.70
EURO/USD 1.1320 1.1350-1.1390 1.1445
GBP/USD 1.2700--1.2750 1.2790 1.2830-1.2870
USD/JPY 108.00-109.05 109.50 110.00-110.60

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
21st June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,400-1,392 1,380 1,370-1,362
Silver-XAG 15.05-14.60 14.30 13.90-13.50
Crude Oil 56.60-56.00 55.50 54.80-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1220 1.1175 1.1150-1.1100
GBP/USD 1.2650 1.2600 1.2500-1.2475
USD/JPY 107.60-107.00 106.50 106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (21st June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1393.87/oz and low of US$1357.63/oz. Gold up by 2.05% at US$1388.25/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1380-1350 with risk below 1350, targeting 1392-1400 and 1425-1433. Sell below 1392-1433 keeping stop loss closing above 1433, targeting 1380-1370-1362 and 1357-1350-1344.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,400-1,392
S2     1,380
S3     1,370-1,362
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,405-1,415
R2     1,425
R3     1,433

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

84.371

Buy
20-DMA   1330.03 Buy
50-DMA  

1300.90

Buy
100-DMA   1303.02 Buy
200-DMA   1271.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   21.975 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.50/oz and low of US$15.11/oz. Silver settled up by 1.783% at US$15.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (14.94), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.05-13.20 targeting 15.30-15.60 and 15.90-16.20; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.30-16.20 with stop loss above 16.20; targeting 15.05-14.60-14.30 and 13.90-13.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.05-14.60
S2     14.30
S3     13.90-13.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.35
R2     15.60
R3     16.00-16.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   67.192 Buy
20-DMA   14.81 Buy
50-DMA   14.79 Buy
100-DMA   15.12 Buy
200-DMA   14.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   84.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0964 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$57.33/bbl, intraday low of US$54.32/bbl and settled up by 5.098% to close at US$57.10/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.90-58.70 with stop loss at 58.70; targeting 56.60-56.00-55.50 and 54.80-54.00-53.50. Buy above 56.60-54.00 with risk daily closing below 54.00 and targeting 56.90-57.40 and 58.00-58.70.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.60-56.00
S2     55.50
S3     54.80-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.90-57.35
R2     58.00
R3     58.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.890 Sell
20-DMA   54.46 Sell
50-DMA   59.47 Sell
100-DMA   58.78 Sell
200-DMA   58.90 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   90.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.654 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1224/EUR, high of US$1.1316/EUR and settled the day up by 0.589% to close at US$1.1291/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1351), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1280-1.1075 with risk below 1.1075, targeting 1.1305-1.1350 and 1.1390-1.1445. Sell below 1.1320-1.1440 targeting 1.1280-1.1220-1.1175 and 1.1130-1.1070 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1440.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1220
S2     1.1175
S3     1.1150-1.1100

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1320
R2     1.1350-1.1390
R3     1.1445

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.751 Buy
20-DMA   1.1235 Buy
50-DMA   1.1215 Buy
100-DMA   1.1259 Buy
200-DMA   1.1351 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2625/GBP, high of US$1.2726/GBP and settled the day up by 0.506% to close at US$1.2699/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2700-1.2870 with targets at 1.2650-1.2600 and 1.2500-1.2475 stop should be below 1.2870. Buy above 1.2650-1.2400 with targets 1.2700-1.2750-1.2790 and 1.2830-1.2870 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650
S2     1.2600
S3     1.2500-1.2475

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2700--1.2750
R2     1.2790
R3     1.2830-1.2870

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.774

Buy
20-DMA   1.2656 Buy
50-DMA   1.2819 Sell
100-DMA   1.2954 Buy
200-DMA   1.2929 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.20/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.13/USD and settled the day down by 0.743% at JPY107.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-113.00 with risk above 113.00 targeting 107.70-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.00-106.00 with targets of 108.00-109.05-109.50 and 110.00-110.60-111.5 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.00-109.05
R2     109.50
R3     110.00-110.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   29.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.59 Sell
50-DMA   109.99 Sell
100-DMA   110.44 Buy
200-DMA   111.18 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   28.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.5704 Buy

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