AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares were haunted by trade anxiety Tuesday while the risk of more dovish talk from the Federal Reserve pushed down Treasury yields and the dollar, propelling gold to fresh six-year peaks. Investors are waiting anxiously to see if anything comes of Sino-U.S. trade talks later this week and sentiment was not helped by reports U.S. President Donald Trump would be content with “any outcome”. Trump is slated to meet one-on-one with at least eight world leaders at the G20 summit in Osaka, including China’s President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. There are no less than five Fed policy makers speaking on Tuesday, including Chair Jerome Powell, and markets assume they will stick with the recent dovish message. Markets are running well ahead of that. Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing and imply around a 40%chance of a half-point move. Dealers also noted a report from Bloomberg that Trump had privately mused about ending the postwar defense pact with Japan. The U.S. dollar edged down on Tuesday in Asia while the Japanese yen gained as heightening tension in the Middle East drew safe-haven demand. The index was under pressure by the prospects of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which signalled it was prepared to cut interest rates later this year to counter a global economic slowdown that was exacerbated by global trade tensions. Fed chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak later this week. The U.S. currency was pressured further against the yen, which often serves as a safe haven in times of political angst, as tensions grew between Iran and the U.S. On Monday, Washington announced new sanctions against Iran after the latter was accused of shooting down an unmanned drone U.S. President Donald Trump ordered, but subsequently called off, a military strike last week in response to the incident, according to reports. Tensions between the two countries have been fragile since the White House decided to withdraw from the UN-backed 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Trump will meet at the G-20 summit in Japan this weekend. The two leaders will resume trade talks but a quick trade deal is not expected. Both China and the U.S. should make compromises in trade talks, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said on Monday, adding that the U.S. needs to stop “inappropriate actions” against Chinese firms.
  • The dollar on Tuesday remained shackled by the prospects of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve while the safe-haven Swiss franc and gold were supported by simmering tensions between Washington and Tehran. Selling in the dollar accelerated after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it would cut interest rates before year-end on mounting worries about the fallout from tariff wars President Donald Trump is waging against China and many other trading partners. Investors looked to whether Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would at least call a truce in their trade war when they are expected to meet at the G20 summit in Osaka later this week. The dollar's weakness was the most notable against traditional safe-haven assets, reflecting concerns about tensions between the United States and Iran. Trump targeted Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials with sanctions on Monday, taking a dramatic, unprecedented step to increase pressure on Iran. Elsewhere, the British pound remains dogged by Brexit concerns as eurosceptic Boris Johnson is seen as likely to win a majority of votes from Conservative party members who will decide the next leader and prime minister.
  • Oil fell on Tuesday amid concerns over the outlook for crude demand, but prices were supported after Washington announced new sanctions on Iran amid mounting tensions in the Middle East. Brent climbed 5% last week and U.S. crude surged 10% after Iran shot down a U.S. drone on Thursday in the Gulf, adding to tensions stoked by attacks on oil tankers in the area in May and June. Washington has blamed the tanker attacks on Iran, which denies having any role. U.S. President Donald Trump targeted Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials with sanctions on Monday, taking an unprecedented step to increase pressure on Iran after Tehran's downing of the drone. Trump also said on Twitter that other countries should protect their own oil shipping in the Middle East rather than have the United States protect them. Some said the threat of immediate military conflict had eased slightly. Meanwhile, hopes are waning for progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks at this week's G20 meeting as investors await a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. That could further hurt global growth prospects, hitting demand for oil and other commodities. Weak manufacturing data released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas added to worries about slipping demand for crude oil However, supply is expected to remain relatively tight, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, appear likely to extend a deal on curbing output when they meet on July 1-2 in Vienna, analysts said. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that international cooperation on crude production had helped stabilize oil markets and was more important than ever. He also voiced concerns about demand. Sanctions on Iran and Venezuela imposed by Washington have cut oil exports from the two OPEC members but U.S. production has been rising, leading some Russian officials to accuse Washington of carving out market share for its energy exports.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th June 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,433-1.440 1,450 1,456-1,465
Silver-XAG 15.60 16.00-16.20 16.50
Crude Oil 58.10-58.70 59.50 60.20
EURO/USD 1.1420-1.1450 1.1500 1.1550
GBP/USD 1.2790 1.2830-1.2870 1.2950
USD/JPY 107.60-108.00 109.05 109.50-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th June 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,425-1,415 1,405 1,392-1,380
Silver-XAG 15.35-15.05 14.60 14.30-13.90
Crude Oil 57.35-56.90 56.60 56.00-55.50
EURO/USD 1.1390-1.1350 1.1320 1.1280-1.1220
GBP/USD 1.2760-1.2700 1.2650 1.2600-1.2500
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 106.00 105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (25th June 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1421.37/oz and low of US$1399.72/oz. Gold up by 1.402% at US$1419.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1425-1380 with risk below 1380, targeting 1433-1440-1450 and 1456-1465. Sell below 1433-1465 keeping stop loss closing above 1433, targeting 1425-1415-1405 and 1392-1380.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,425-1,415
S2     1,405
S3     1,392-1,380
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,433-1.440
R2     1,450
R3     1,456-1,465

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

86.644

Buy
20-DMA   1336.64 Buy
50-DMA  

1303.43

Buy
100-DMA   1304.85 Buy
200-DMA   1272.09 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   25.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   21.975 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.45/oz and low of US$15.28/oz. Silver settled up by 0.705% at US$15.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (14.93), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.35-13.20 targeting 15.60-15.90-16.20 and 16.50-17.00; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.60-16.90 with stop loss above 16.90; targeting 15.35-15.05-14.60 and 14.30-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.35-15.05
S2     14.60
S3     14.30-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.60
R2     16.00-16.20
R3     16.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   68.053 Buy
20-DMA   14.91 Buy
50-DMA   14.81 Buy
100-DMA   15.11 Buy
200-DMA   14.93 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   78.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.164 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$58.18/bbl, intraday low of US$56.73/bbl and settled up by 0.103% to close at US$57.72/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.10-60.20 with stop loss at 60.20; targeting 57.35-56.90-56.00 and 55.50-54.80-54.00. Buy above 56.60-55.00 with risk daily closing below 55.00 and targeting 58.10-58.70 and 59.50-60.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.35-56.90
S2     56.60
S3     56.00-55.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.10-58.70
R2     59.50
R3     60.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.917 Sell
20-DMA   54.37 Sell
50-DMA   59.24 Sell
100-DMA   58.78 Sell
200-DMA   58.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.597 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1366/EUR, high of US$1.1403/EUR and settled the day up by 0.255% to close at US$1.1397/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1390-1.1175 with risk below 1.1175, targeting 1.1420-1.1450 and 1.1500-1.1550. Sell below 1.1420-1.1550 targeting 1.1390-1.1350-1.1320 and 1.1280-1.1220 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1540.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1390-1.1350
S2     1.1320
S3     1.1280-1.1220

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1420-1.1450
R2     1.1500
R3     1.1550

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   66.331 Buy
20-DMA   1.1262 Buy
50-DMA   1.1221 Buy
100-DMA   1.1259 Buy
200-DMA   1.1349 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   95.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0037 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2707/GBP, high of US$1.2765/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0463% to close at US$1.2737/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2790-1.12950 with targets at 1.2760-1.2700-1.2650 and 1.2600-1.2500-1.2475 stop should be below 1.2870. Buy above 1.2650-1.2400 with targets 1.2700-1.2750-1.2790 and 1.2830-1.2870 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2760-1.2700
S2     1.2650
S3     1.2600-1.2500

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2790
R2     1.2830-1.2870
R3     1.2950

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.618

Buy
20-DMA   1.2668 Buy
50-DMA   1.2807 Sell
100-DMA   1.2950 Buy
200-DMA   1.2926 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   94.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.53/USD and settled the day up by 0.0270% at JPY107.28/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 107.00 106.50 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 107.00-105.50 with targets of 107.60-108.00-109.05 and 109.50-110.00-110.60 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     106.00
S3     105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.60-108.00
R2     109.05
R3     109.50-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.80 Sell
50-DMA   110.13 Sell
100-DMA   110.47 Buy
200-DMA   111.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   60.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.5704 Buy

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