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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares fell on Wednesday as initial enthusiasm over the latest U.S.-China trade truce was overtaken by fresh concerns over Washington’s threat of tariffs on additional European goods. Global growth concerns also weighed on investor confidence, with South Korea the latest trade-reliant economy to cut its economic growth and export targets, a day after weaker factory readings worldwide. Still, a rally in global stocks following the U.S.-China summit at weekend is rapidly losing steam. While the threat of new U.S. tariffs has been postponed for now, existing tariffs that have disrupted global supply chains are unlikely to be lifted any time soon. The United States and China agreed on Saturday to restart trade talks after President Donald Trump offered concessions including no new tariffs and an easing of restrictions on tech company Huawei in order to reduce tensions with Beijing. Data published so far this week has showed factory activity in the euro zone shrank at a faster pace than expected last month and U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in June. Most Asian factory gauges also contracted. Moreover, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office released a list of additional European products that could be subject to tariffs, on top of products worth $21 billion that were announced in April. These included olives, Italian cheese and Scotch whisky. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Tuesday flagged uncertainties stemming from trade disputes and Britain’s departure from the European Union even as he stuck to his line that the central bank could raise rates in the event of a smooth Brexit. European bond yields are expected to fall further after European Union leaders agreed late on Tuesday to name France’s Christine Lagarde as the new head of the European Central Bank.. In the United States, Trump said on Tuesday he intends to nominate Judy Shelton, an economic adviser to his 2016 presidential campaign, and Christopher Waller, an executive vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, to the Federal Reserve board of governors.
  • The dollar struggled on Wednesday, having been nudged off two-week highs as fading optimism over any near-term Sino-U.S. trade deal revived safe-haven demand and drove U.S. yields down. BoE's Carney said on Tuesday that a global trade war and a no-deal Brexit were growing risks to Britain's economy which might need more help to cope with a downturn, prompting investors to increase their bets on central bank easing. The common currency had received a lift after a media report that European Central Bank policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates at a July policy meeting. But it later slipped after IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, perceived as a policy dove, was nominated as the next ECB president. At the G20 summit in Japan last weekend, Washington and Beijing agreed to restart trade talks after U.S. President Donald Trump offered concessions. But investors were wary about the chances of a resolution to the year-long trade war between the world's two biggest economies, especially given the recent breakdown in talks and Trump's comments that any deal would have to be tilted in U.S.'s favor. Sentiment was also dented by Washington's threat of tariffs on $4 billion of additional European Union goods in a long-running dispute over aircraft subsidies. The U.S. dollar and the Euro were both little changed on Wednesday in Asia. Reports that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde is nominated to lead the European Central Bank (ECB) received some attention. U.S. President Donald Trump said he is planning to nominate Christopher Waller, the executive vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Judy Shelton, an economic adviser to the president during his 2016 campaign, to the Federal Reserve's board. In the past, Trump has opening accused current Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and said the central bank has “gone crazy” for raising interest rates, rather than cutting them. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, Washington and Beijing have agreed to restart trade talks, but U.S. trade advisor Peter Navarro said a potential trade deal “will take time.” Investors will now look ahead to Friday’s job report, which is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 164,000 in June, rebounding from a steep decline in May. The EUR/USD pair was little changed at 1.1287. The common currency slipped earlier in the day after reports that Lagarde is set to swap the helm of the IMF for that of the ECB. She would succeed Mario Draghi when his eight-year term ends in October, according to reports.
  • Oil prices were steady on Wednesday after a steep fall in the previous session, supported by extended output cuts by OPEC and its allies despite concerns that a slowing global economy could crimp demand. Prices were also supported by widely-watched data showing a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories, with government data due later in the day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Tuesday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as members overcame differences to try to prop up prices. Ahead of government data due later on Wednesday, industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5 million barrels last week, more than the expected decrease of 3 million barrels. The OPEC+ agreement to extend oil output cuts for nine months should draw down oil inventories in the second-half of this year, boosting oil prices, analysts from Citi Research said in a note. Still, signs of a global economic slowdown hitting oil demand growth worried investors after global manufacturing indicators disappointed and the United States opened another trade front after threatening the EU with more tariffs. Barclays expects demand to grow at its slowest pace since 2011, gaining less than 1 million barrels per day year-on-year this year. Crude prices were also capped by signs of a recovery in oil exports from Venezuela in June and growth in oil production in Argentina in May.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,425 1,450 1,450
Silver-XAG 15.50 16.00 16.20-16.50
Crude Oil 56.90-57.35 58.10 58.70-59.20
EURO/USD 1.1320-1.1350 1.1390 1.1420-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2700 1.2760-1.2790
USD/JPY 108.50 109.05 109.50-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,411-1,400 1,390 1,380-1,374
Silver-XAG 15.25-15.05 14.60 14.30-13.90
Crude Oil 56.05-55.50 54.90 54.00-53.50
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1220 1.1180 1.1150
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2500 1.2450 1.2410
USD/JPY 107.60-107.00 106.50 106.00-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1420.94/oz and low of US$1383.23/oz. Gold up by 2.472% at US$1418.04/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1411-1374 with risk below 1374, targeting 1425-1433 and 1440-1450. Sell below 1425-1450 keeping stop loss closing above 1450, targeting 1411-1400-1388 and 1380-1374-1368.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1411-1374 with risk below 1374, targeting 1425-1433 and 1440-1450. Sell below 1425-1450 keeping stop loss closing above 1450, targeting 1411-1400-1388 and 1380-1374-1368.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,411-1,400
S2     1,390
S3     1,380-1,374
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,425
R2     1,450
R3     1,450

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

71.264

Buy
20-DMA   1373.87 Buy
50-DMA  

1322.25

Buy
100-DMA   1311.88 Buy
200-DMA   1279.56 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   51.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   28.975 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$15.31/oz and low of US$15.03/oz. Silver settled up by 1.243% at US$15.30/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (14.93), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.25-13.90 targeting 15.60-15.90 and 16.20-16.50; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.35-16.90 with stop loss above 16.90; targeting 15.35-15.05-14.60 and 14.30-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.25-15.05
S2     14.60
S3     14.30-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.00
R3     16.20-16.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.896 Buy
20-DMA   15.09 Buy
50-DMA   14.84 Buy
100-DMA   15.08 Buy
200-DMA   14.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.154 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$59.42/bbl, intraday low of US$56.10/bbl and settled down by 1.781% to close at US$56.30/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.90-59.20 with stop loss at 59.20; targeting 56.05-55.50-54.90 and 54.00-53.50. Buy above 56.00-53.50 with risk daily closing below 53.50 and targeting 56.90-57.35-58.10 and 58.70-59.50-60.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.05-55.50
S2     54.90
S3     54.00-53.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.90-57.35
R2     58.10
R3     58.70-59.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.559 Sell
20-DMA   55.52 Sell
50-DMA   58.44 Sell
100-DMA   59.08 Sell
200-DMA   58.44 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   21.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.144 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1274/EUR, high of US$1.1321/EUR and settled the day down by 0.008% to close at US$1.1283/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1280-1.1150 with risk below 1.1150, targeting 1.1320-1.1390-1.1420 and 1.1450-1.1500. Sell below 1.1320-1.1500 targeting 1.1280-1.1220 and 1.1180-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1220
S2     1.1180
S3     1.1150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1320-1.1350
R2     1.1390
R3     1.1420-1.1450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.985 Buy
20-DMA   1.1298 Buy
50-DMA   1.1229 Buy
100-DMA   1.1260 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0037 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2583/GBP, high of US$1.2647/GBP and settled the day down by 0.360% to close at US$1.2590/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2790-1.12950 with targets at 1.2760-1.2700-1.2650 and 1.2600-1.2500-1.2475 stop should be below 1.2870. Buy above 1.2650-1.2400 with targets 1.2700-1.2750-1.2790 and 1.2830-1.2870 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2550-1.2500
S2     1.2450
S3     1.2410

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2650-1.2600
R2     1.2700
R3     1.2760-1.2790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.948

Buy
20-DMA   1.2671 Buy
50-DMA   1.2786 Sell
100-DMA   1.2941 Buy
200-DMA   1.2918 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.175 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.76/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.46/USD and settled the day down by 0.522% at JPY107.86/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 107.60-107.00-106.50 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 107.60-105.50 with targets of 108.00-109.05 and 109.50-110.00-110.60 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.00-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     109.05
R3     109.50-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.07 Sell
50-DMA   109.37 Sell
100-DMA   110.28 Buy
200-DMA   111.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   81.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.5704 Buy

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