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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares hovered near two-month highs on Friday as investors braced for U.S. employment data, a key release that could stoke or temper market expectations about aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Trade across global markets was expected to remain subdued following the Independence Day holiday in the United States on Thursday and ahead of the non-farm payrolls report. World stocks and bonds have rallied since June on hopes global central banks will keep policy easy to support growth. All eyes were now on U.S. non-farm payrolls, due later in the day, which is expected to have jumped by 160,000 in June compared with 75,000 in May. The Fed is not alone in embarking on easier monetary policy. Australia’s central bank has cut its cash rate by 50 basis points since June while leaving the door ajar for a third move this year. In the euro zone, financial markets expect the bloc’s central bank to lay out the landscape for further monetary easing at its July 25 meeting. Prospects of global easings have sent government bond yields to multi-year lows around the world. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield DE10YT=RR, a benchmark for euro zone debt, fell to minus 0.4% and matched the European Central Bank’s deposit rate for the first time - a sign that markets are expecting rate cuts. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 1.7% last month as investors priced in a 50-basis-point cut from the Fed. Those expectations faded in recent days on more reserved Fed commentary and a truce in a protracted Sino-U.S. trade war, but it has since come back on underwhelming U.S. economic data.
  • The U.S. dollar was little changed on Friday in Asia as traders remained cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day. Non-farm payrolls are expected to have risen by 160,000 in June, compared with 75,000 in May. Analysts said positive payroll data is unlikely to buoy the dollar as expectations for U.S. rate cuts are strong, given low inflation. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, U.S. and Chinese officials are “on the phone,” U.S. chief economic adviser Larry Kudlowtold reporters at the White House on Wednesday. “They will be on the phone this coming week. And they will be scheduling face-to-face meetings. Lots of communications.” The two sides agreed to resume negotiations and hold off imposing additional tariffs on each other’s goods over the weekend. The dollar was firm on Friday but traders held off on making big bets ahead of the closely-watched U.S. non-farm jobs report that could influence the course of near-term Federal Reserve policy. The dollar index (DXY) against a basket of six major currencies stood little changed 96.748, having spent the previous day in a tight range as the U.S. financial markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday. Economists polled by Reuters are predicting U.S. non-farm payrolls to have increased by 160,000 in June from 75,000 in May. The euro was steady at $1.1284 (EUR=) and headed for a weekly loss of 0.75%. A drop in European government bond (EGB) yields to record lows this week, in sympathy with the global debt rally, has weighed on the single currency. Germany's benchmark 10-year government bond yield matched the European Central Bank's deposit rate of minus 0.4% for the first time on Thursday, in the latest sign that markets are braced for interest rate cuts soon.As expectations for monetary easing from the world's central banks have steadily increased, investors believe the Bank of England might have to , which until recently had signaled its next move would be to tighten, will not be able to resist the pressure to ease.
  • Oil prices fell on Friday in Asia despite heightened tensions in the Middle East due to the seizure of an Iranian oil tanker by British Royal Marines. It was reported that British Royal Marines helped the authorities in Gibraltar seize the ship on the basis of evidence that it was heading to Syria in breach of EU sanctions. The news elevated tensions in the Middle East and could potentially disrupt supply. Following the incident, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the British ambassador to voice “its very strong objection to the illegal and unacceptable seizure” of its ship. U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton said the British move was “excellent news.”Despite the news, oil prices were down today due to concerns on economic growth and weakening demand, according to analysts. Earlier this week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to extend production cuts until March 2020. The Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday that crude stockpiles fell 1.1. million barrels in the week ending June 28, below expectations of a draw of about 2.96 million barrels. The data came after the American Petroleum Institute’s separate report, released late Tuesday, showed inventories fell by a larger 5 million barrels last week. That suggests oil demand in the United States, the world's biggest crude consumer, could be slowing amid signs of a weakening economy. New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in May, government data showed on Wednesday, stoking economic concerns. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a weekly decline of 1.1 million barrels in crude stocks, much smaller than the 5 million barrel draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute earlier in the week. That suggests oil demand in the United States, the world's biggest crude consumer, could be slowing amid signs of a weakening economy. Countering the downward pressure, ongoing tensions in the Middle East also offered some support. British Royal Marines seized a giant Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar on Thursday for trying to take oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions, a dramatic step that drew Tehran's fury and could escalate its confrontation with the West.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
5th July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,425 1,433-1.440 1,450
Silver-XAG 15.50 16.00 16.20-16.50
Crude Oil 57.35 58.10 58.70-59.20
EURO/USD 1.1320-1.1350 1.1390 1.1420-1.1450
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2700 1.2760-1.2790
USD/JPY 108.50 109.05 109.50-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
5th July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,411-1,400 1,390 1,380-1,374
Silver-XAG 15.25-15.05 14.60 14.30-13.90
Crude Oil 56.80-56.05 55.50 54.90-54.00
EURO/USD 1.1280-1.1220 1.1180 1.1150
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2500 1.2450 1.2410
USD/JPY 107.60-107.00 106.50 106.00-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (5th July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1421.61/oz and low of US$1410.12/oz. Gold down by 0.231% at US$1415.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1411-1374 with risk below 1374, targeting 1425-1433 and 1440-1450. Sell below 1425-1450 keeping stop loss closing above 1450, targeting 1411-1400-1388 and 1380-1374-1368.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,411-1,400
S2     1,390
S3     1,380-1,374
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,425
R2     1,433-1.440
R3     1,450

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

70.300

Buy
20-DMA   1373.62 Buy
50-DMA  

1322.14

Buy
100-DMA   1311.83 Buy
200-DMA   1279.54 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   28.975 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$15.32/oz and low of US$15.20/oz. Silver settled down by 0.065% at US$15.26/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (14.93), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.25-13.90 targeting 15.60-15.90 and 16.20-16.50; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.35-16.90 with stop loss above 16.90; targeting 15.35-15.05-14.60 and 14.30-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.25-15.05
S2     14.60
S3     14.30-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.00
R3     16.20-16.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.896 Buy
20-DMA   15.09 Buy
50-DMA   14.84 Buy
100-DMA   15.08 Buy
200-DMA   14.96 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   41.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.154 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$57.59/bbl, intraday low of US$56.49/bbl and settled down by 0.834% to close at US$56.93/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 56.90-59.20 with stop loss at 59.20; targeting 56.05-55.50-54.90 and 54.00-53.50. Buy above 56.00-53.50 with risk daily closing below 53.50 and targeting 56.90-57.35-58.10 and 58.70-59.50-60.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.80-56.05
S2     55.50
S3     54.90-54.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.35
R2     58.10
R3     58.70-59.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.559 Sell
20-DMA   55.77 Sell
50-DMA   58.30 Sell
100-DMA   59.11 Sell
200-DMA   58.37 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   19.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.192 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1267/EUR, high of US$1.1294/EUR and settled the day up by 0.062% to close at US$1.1283/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1280-1.1150 with risk below 1.1150, targeting 1.1320-1.1390-1.1420 and 1.1450-1.1500. Sell below 1.1320-1.1500 targeting 1.1280-1.1220 and 1.1180-1.1150 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1450.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1280-1.1220
S2     1.1180
S3     1.1150

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1320-1.1350
R2     1.1390
R3     1.1420-1.1450

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.985 Buy
20-DMA   1.1298 Buy
50-DMA   1.1229 Buy
100-DMA   1.1260 Buy
200-DMA   1.1339 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   14.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0037 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2559/GBP, high of US$1.2590/GBP and settled the day up by 0.107% to close at US$1.2575/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2790-1.12950 with targets at 1.2760-1.2700-1.2650 and 1.2600-1.2500-1.2475 stop should be below 1.2870. Buy above 1.2650-1.2400 with targets 1.2700-1.2750-1.2790 and 1.2830-1.2870 with stop loss closing below 1.2400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2550-1.2500
S2     1.2450
S3     1.2410

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2650-1.2600
R2     1.2700
R3     1.2760-1.2790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.948

Buy
20-DMA   1.2671 Buy
50-DMA   1.2786 Sell
100-DMA   1.2941 Buy
200-DMA   1.2918 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.175 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.70/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.83/USD and settled the day up by 0.0423% at JPY117.80/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 107.60-107.00-106.50 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 107.60-105.50 with targets of 108.00-109.05 and 109.50-110.00-110.60 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.00-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     109.05
R3     109.50-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.07 Sell
50-DMA   109.37 Sell
100-DMA   110.28 Buy
200-DMA   111.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   81.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.5704 Buy

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