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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares were a sea of red on Monday after strong U.S. job gains tempered expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver a large rate cut, while the Turkish lira hovered near two-week lows on worries about central bank independence. Share sentiment was also dampened by U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley’s decision to reduce its exposure to global equities due to misgivings about the ability of policy easings to offset weaker economic data. Expensive valuations and pressure on earnings were among the reasons for the downgrade, Sheets said, while the bank increased its exposure to emerging markets sovereign credit and safe haven Japanese government bonds. Since the start of the year, global equities have generally been bolstered by expectations that central banks will keep interest rates at or near record lows to boost economic growth. Those expectations were tempered by a U.S. labor report on Friday that showed nonfarm payrolls jumped 224,000 in June, beating forecasts for 160,000, in a sign the world’s largest economy still had fire. Given the strength shown in that data, investors now expect U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to go slow on rate cuts this year. Powell will provide further cues on the near-term outlook for monetary policy this week at his semi-annual testimony to the U.S. Congress. President Tayyip Erdogan sacked Cetinkaya for refusing the government’s repeated demands for rate cuts, laying bare differences between them over the timing of interest rate cuts to revive the recession-hit economy.
  • The U.S. dollar slipped on Monday in Asia after jumping to a three-week high on a better-than-expected jobs report that dampened expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively to combat a slowing economy. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 224,000 in June, well above consensus expectations for 160,000 and a sharp rebound from a downwardly-revised 72,000 in May. The data boosted the greenback on Friday and sent the U.S. currency to a three-week high of 96.968, before giving up some of its gains today. The solid data reduced chances of a Fed rate cut at the end of July. Previously, traders expected the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points in July and a total of three rate cuts this year to mitigate the effects of the U.S.'s various trade disputes. The country’s Economy Ministry also warned that this sector will likely remain weak in the coming months. The reading compared with an expected decline of 4.7% and followed a 5.2% rise in April. Separately, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said he expects the country's economy to grow moderately and gradually push inflation toward the central bank's 2% target. The dollar rose broadly on Monday after strong U.S. jobs growth in June suggested the Federal Reserve will not aggressively cut interest rates later this month.
  • U.S. nonfarm payrolls rebounded in June to 224,000, the most in five months, data showed on Friday, beating economists' consensus estimate of 160,000. The solid outcome virtually wipes out chances for a half point Fed rate cut at the end of July, but modest wage gains and other data showing the world's largest economy was losing steam could still encourage the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points. The common currency came under pressure on Friday after data showed that German industrial orders fell far more than expected in May and the Economy Ministry warned that this sector of Europe's largest economy was likely to remain weak in the coming months. As traders' focus quickly shifted to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony, due on Wednesday and Thursday, Chandler said it might be too late to persuade the market that the Fed will not cut rates now. The British pound hit a six-month low to the dollar on Friday, after poor economic data and a rise in expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates. Better-than-expected U.S. jobs data sparked a rally in the dollar, adding to sterling's losses. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira weakened sharply after President Tayyip Erdogan dismissed the central bank governor, sparking worries about the bank's independence. Governor Murat Cetinkaya, whose four-year term was due to run until 2020, was replaced by his deputy Murat Uysal, a presidential decree published early on Saturday in the official gazette showed.
  • Oil prices steadied on Monday in Asia. A better-than-expected U.S. jobs report was cited as a tailwind for the markets. Oil markets posted weekly losses on concerns of weakening demand after data last week showed a much smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. However, promises of tighter OPEC supply extending into March 2020 limited fall of oil prices. A Reuters survey showing OPEC oil output had sunk to a new five-year low in June was also cited as supportive. Prices initially rallied early last week on the feel-good news of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China after the two sides agreed to resume discussion. Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this month dampened following the release of a better-than-expected U.S. employment report last Friday. Employers added 224,000 jobs last month, the most in five months, the report showed. Citing analysts, Reuters said the jobs report was a tailwind for the oil markets. In other news, tensions in the Middle East remained after Europe urged Iran to reverse its latest decision on uranium enrichment. It was reported last week that British Royal Marines seized an Iranian oil tanker in Gibraltar on the basis of evidence that it was heading to Syria in breach of EU sanctions. It was reported that British Royal Marines helped the authorities in Gibraltar seize the ship on the basis of evidence that it was heading to Syria in breach of EU sanctions. It was reported that British Royal Marines helped the authorities in Gibraltar seize the ship on the basis of evidence that it was heading to Syria in breach of EU sanctions. It was reported that British Royal Marines helped the authorities in Gibraltar seize the ship on the basis of evidence that it was heading to Syria in breach of EU sanctions.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,411-1,425 1,433 1.440-1,450
Silver-XAG 15.25-15.50 16.00 16.20-16.50
Crude Oil 58.10 58.70-59. 60.00
EURO/USD 1.1220-1.1280 1.1320 1.13500-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.2550-1.2600 1.2650 1.2700-1.2760
USD/JPY 108.50 109.05 109.50-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,400 1,390 1,380-1,374
Silver-XAG 15.05 14.60 14.30-13.90
Crude Oil 57.35-56.80 56.05 55.50-54.90
EURO/USD 1.1210-1.1180 1.1150 1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2500-1.2450 1.2405 1.2350
USD/JPY 107.60-107.00 106.50 106.00-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (8th July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1424.20/oz and low of US$1386.59/oz. Gold down by 1.169% at US$1398.90/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1400-1374 with risk below 1374, targeting 1411-1425-1433 and 1440-1450. Sell below 1411-1450 keeping stop loss closing above 1450, targeting 1400-1388 and 1380-1374-1368.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,400
S2     1,390
S3     1,380-1,374
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,411-1,425
R2     1,433
R3     1.440-1,450

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.300

Buy
20-DMA   1384.32 Buy
50-DMA  

1329.14

Buy
100-DMA   1314.61 Buy
200-DMA   1282.65 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   42.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   24.175 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.32/oz and low of US$14.88/oz. Silver settled down by 1.665% at US$14.99/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (14.93), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.25-13.90 targeting 15.60-15.90 and 16.20-16.50; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.35-16.90 with stop loss above 16.90; targeting 15.35-15.05-14.60 and 14.30-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.05
S2     14.60
S3     14.30-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.25-15.50
R2     16.00
R3     16.20-16.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.162 Buy
20-DMA   15.12 Sell
50-DMA   14.85 Buy
100-DMA   15.06 Buy
200-DMA   14.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.154 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$57.79/bbl, intraday low of US$56.32/bbl and settled up by 1.690% to close at US$56.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 58.10-59.20 with stop loss at 59.20; targeting 57.35-56.80-56.05 and 55.50-54.90 and 54.00-53.50. Buy above 56.00-53.50 with risk daily closing below 53.50 and targeting 56.90-57.35-58.10 and 58.70-59.50-60.20.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.35-56.80
S2     56.05
S3     55.50-54.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.10
R2     58.70-59.
R3     60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.559 Sell
20-DMA   56.14 Buy
50-DMA   58.07 Sell
100-DMA   59.15 Sell
200-DMA   58.23 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1206/EUR, high of US$1.1287/EUR and settled the day down by 0.510% to close at US$1.1225/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1210-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1220-1.1280-1.1320 and 1.1390-1.1420. Sell below 1.1220-1.1390 targeting 1.1220-1.1180 and 1.1150-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1210-1.1180
S2     1.1150
S3     1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1220-1.1280
R2     1.1320
R3     1.13500-1.1390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.105 Buy
20-DMA   1.1291 Sell
50-DMA   1.1237 Sell
100-DMA   1.1258 Sell
200-DMA   1.1330 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   11.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0037 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2480/GBP, high of US$1.2586/GBP and settled the day down by 0.405% to close at US$1.2524/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2550-1.12760 with targets at 1.2500-1.2475-1.2450 and 1.2405-1.2350 top should be below 1.2800. Buy above 1.2500-1.2350 with targets 1.2550-1.2600-1.2650 and 1.2700-1.2750-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2500-1.2450
S2     1.2405
S3     1.2350

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2550-1.2600
R2     1.2650
R3     1.2700-1.2760

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

35.043

Buy
20-DMA   1.2635 Sell
50-DMA   1.2743 Sell
100-DMA   1.2924 Sell
200-DMA   1.2901 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.77/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.63/USD and settled the day up by 0.615% at JPY108.46/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 107.60-107.00-106.50 and 106.00-105.50. Long positions above 107.60-105.50 with targets of 108.00-109.05 and 109.50-110.00-110.60 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.00-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     109.05
R3     109.50-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.07 Sell
50-DMA   109.37 Sell
100-DMA   110.28 Buy
200-DMA   111.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   81.955 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.5704 Buy

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