AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares advanced on Monday as investors breathed a sigh of relief after encouraging Chinese data suggested the world's second-biggest economy may be starting to stabilize thanks to ramped-up stimulus from Beijing. Second quarter economic growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace in at least 27 years while separate data showed the country's industrial output and retail sales handily topped forecasts. The promising monthly activity data suggested a flurry of stimulus measures from China have been able to prop-up domestic activity and offset some of the damage from a protracted trade war with the United States, analysts said. Equity markets were choppy in the wake of the Chinese data as some expected Beijing might temper further stimulus. Trading was expected to be light as Japan was shut for a public holiday. Later in the week, U.S. retail sales and industrial production data will provide more clues about the health of the world's largest economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its 'Beige Book' on Wednesday which investors will scour for comments on how trade tensions were affecting business outlook. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar ticked up from near the lowest since early June at 108.04 while the single currency was slightly lower at $1.1267 after three successive sessions of gains. Expectations that the Fed will keep rates supportive have sent bonds rallying with ten-year U.S. Treasuries below the current Fed rate range of 2.25%-2.50%. Worries about world growth and low inflation has meant investors are piling money onto bonds and money market funds, Jefferies said, citing its global asset fund flows tracker.
  • The U.S. dollar was near flat on Monday in Asia as rising inflation failed to deter expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rate this month. On Friday, it was shown that U.S.’s producer price index for final demand edged up 0.1% last month. It was previously expected that the number would remain unchanged. The data came after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers last week that the central bank is concerned about weak inflation and other uncertainties. Gold prices were little changed on Monday in Asia after data showed China’s second-quarter growth data slowed to a 27-year low but matched expectations. The prices of the safe-haven asset was little changed after the release of a slew of China data this morning. The country’s GDP growth slowed to 6.2% year-on-year in the April-June period, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday. The figure was in line with expectations but lower than first quarter’s 6.4% year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, the country’s industrial manufacturing, retail sales and fixed-asset investment figure all beat forecasts. Chinese stocks received a boost following the release of the data, but gold prices were little impacted by them today. Gold prices jumped from $1,200 levels to $1,400 over the past two months amid expectations of an interest rate cut that will likely weaken the dollar and boost the yellow metal. On the data front, headline inflation at factory gates rose 1.7% from a year earlier in June, topping expectations for a larger drop to 1.6%, reports on Friday showed. In other news, tensions between China and the U.S. seemingly eased somewhat as Reuters reported that the U.S. may grant licenses for companies to restart sales to Chinese telecommunication equipment maker Huawei in as little as two weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met last month in Japan and promised to resume trade negotiations. he Australian dollar reached a 10-day high on Monday on stronger-than-expected economic data from China, which some analysts saw as signaling that moves to revive spending in the world's second biggest economy are working. China's industrial output bounced in June from a 17-year low in the previous month. June retail sales surged 9.8% from a year earlier, compared with the 8.3% - a slowing from May's tepid figures - that polled analysts expected. China is Australia's biggest export market and the data caused the Australian dollar to touch its highest point since July. China's quarterly gross domestic product posted its slowest pace of growth in 27 years, as expected, growing by 6.2% in the June quarter compared to a year earlier The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Comments last week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Chicago Fed president Charles Evans indicated U.S. rate cuts are needed to boost inflation. Investors will be looking to U.S. retail sales figures due Tuesday and company earnings for signs of how shoppers and businesses are weathering the slowdown.
  • Oil prices fell on Monday in Asia after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects the return of an oversupplied market next year. In a closely-watched report, the IEA said oil supply in the first half of 2019 had exceeded demand by 0.9 million barrels per day. The news came after OPEC and its allies renewed an oil production cut agreement until March 2020. In other news, Tropical storm Barry, which cut oil production in the Gulf Coast of Mexico by more than half, remained in focus after the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Sunday that the storm has halted 73% of crude oil production in the U.S.-regulated areas of the Gulf of Mexico. Oil prices gained last week amid the disruptions caused by the storm.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,425 1,433 1.440-1,450
Silver-XAG 15.25-15.50 16.00 16.20-16.50
Crude Oil 60.50-61.00 61.90 62.50-63.30
EURO/USD 1.1280 1.1320 1.13500-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.2550 1.2600 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 108.50-109.05 109.50 110.15-110.65

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,409-1,400 1,390 1,380-1,374
Silver-XAG 15.05 14.60 14.30-13.90
Crude Oil 60.00 59.20 58.70-58.10
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1210 1.1180 1.1150-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2500-1.2440 1.2405 1.2350-1.2300
USD/JPY 107.60 107.00 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (15th July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1416.81/oz and low of US$1403.03/oz. Gold up by 0.817% at US$1415.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1409-1374 with risk below 1374, targeting 1418-1425-1433 and 1440-1450. Sell below 1425-1450 keeping stop loss closing above 1450, targeting 1409-1400-1388 and 1380-1374.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,409-1,400
S2     1,390
S3     1,380-1,374
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,425
R2     1,433
R3     1.440-1,450

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

60.217

Buy
20-DMA   1398.13 Buy
50-DMA  

1339.85

Buy
100-DMA   1317.53 Buy
200-DMA   1286.92 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   60.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   21.175 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$15.23/oz and low of US$15.03/oz. Silver settled down by 0.889% at US$15.20/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (14.93), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.25-13.90 targeting 15.60-15.90 and 16.20-16.50; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.35-16.90 with stop loss above 16.90; targeting 15.35-15.05-14.60 and 14.30-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.05
S2     14.60
S3     14.30-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.25-15.50
R2     16.00
R3     16.20-16.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.162 Buy
20-DMA   15.12 Sell
50-DMA   14.85 Buy
100-DMA   15.06 Buy
200-DMA   14.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   32.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.154 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$60.77/bbl, intraday low of US$59.98/bbl and settled down by 0.090% to close at US$60.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 60.50-63.30 with stop loss at 63.30; targeting 60.00-59.20 and 58.70-58.10. Buy above 60.00-58.10 with risk daily closing below 58.10 and targeting 60.50-61.00-61.90 and 62.50-63.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     60.00
S2     59.20
S3     58.70-58.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.50-61.00
R2     61.90
R3     62.50-63.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.222 Sell
20-DMA   58.04 Buy
50-DMA   57.80 Sell
100-DMA   59.31 Sell
200-DMA   57.87 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   82.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.838 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1244/EUR, high of US$1.1285/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0355% to close at US$1.1253/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1280-1.1320 and 1.1390-1.1420. Sell below 1.1220-1.1390 targeting 1.1220-1.1180 and 1.1150-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1210
S2     1.1180
S3     1.1150-1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280
R2     1.1320
R3     1.13500-1.1390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.105 Buy
20-DMA   1.1288 Sell
50-DMA   1.1242 Sell
100-DMA   1.1253 Sell
200-DMA   1.1323 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2513/GBP, high of US$1.2578/GBP and settled the day up by 0.449% to close at US$1.2574/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2550-1.12760 with targets at 1.2500-1.2440-1.2405 and 1.2350-1.2300 top should be below 1.2760. Buy above 1.2550-1.2300 with targets 1.2550-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2500-1.2440
S2     1.2405
S3     1.2350-1.2300

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2550
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.097

Buy
20-DMA   1.2605 Sell
50-DMA   1.2711 Sell
100-DMA   1.2907 Sell
200-DMA   1.2893 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   36.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.52/USD and settled the day down by 0.530% at JPY107.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.05-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.60-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.05-109.50-110.00-110.60 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.05
R2     109.50
R3     110.15-110.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.03 Sell
50-DMA   108.96 Sell
100-DMA   110.14 Buy
200-DMA   110.88 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   90.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.295 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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