AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Most Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday, but gains were limited as investors awaited U.S. retail sales data and corporate earnings to gauge the health of the world’s biggest economy ahead of a likely U.S. rate cut later this month. Encouraging Chinese June data on Monday had provided some relief to investors worried about the economic outlook, but pressure on global business and investment from the trade war and slowing world growth are reinforcing expectations of policy easing by major central banks. Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump showed no signs of softening his stance on China, warning that Washington could pile on more pressure as trade talks sputtered along. U.S. data on Tuesday is expected to show that retail sales rose 0.1% in June, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters. But a decline in net interest margin reported by Citigroup in its mixed quarterly report underlined risks for financial firms in a lower interest rate environment. That decline partly overshadowed better-than-expected profit numbers, triggering a fall in shares of other banks on concerns that it would presage lower profits across the industry Signs of trade tensions weighing on corporate profits and the fading impact of tax cuts would underscore the U.S. Federal Reserve’s concerns over slowing investment, he said. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis point cut by the Fed at its meeting at the end of this month. Signs of an improving economic situation in the United States have led to a steepening of the U.S. yield curve, led by higher longer-dated yields.
  • The Aussie dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday in Asia. The central bank had cut the cash rate to 1% in July, a new all-time low Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies last traded at 96.583, up 0.04% Overnight, the New York Federal Reserve said that its Empire State manufacturing index for July came in at 4.3 points, compared to -8.6 in June. A reading above zero suggests an expansion in regional business activity Despite the positive data, the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is month continued to keep the dollar on the defensive. The pound struggled near a six-month low against the dollar on Tuesday hampered by persistent worries over Brexit that, in turn, weighed on the euro. The dollar fought for traction against the yen as the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the month continued to keep the greenback on the defensive.
  • Sterling was under pressure as investors were nervous about the prospect of eurosceptic Boris Johnson winning the Conservative party leadership contest and becoming the next British prime minister as early as the end of this month. Poor economic data and signals from the Bank of England that it could cut interest rates instead of raising them as previously expected have also hit the pound. The U.S. currency rose to a six-week high of 108.990 yen last week but slid after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set the stage for a rate cut later this month by giving a sombre outlook on the world's largest economy. The dollar lost further ground against the yen toward the end of last week after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday that "a couple" of rate cuts were needed to boost inflation.
  • Oil prices dipped on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as output in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico resumed after Hurricane Barry and as U.S. shale production is set to rise to a record. Producers on Monday began restoring some of the roughly three-quarters of output that was shut at U.S. Gulf of Mexico platforms ahead of Hurricane Barry. There was 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production offline in the U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, about 80,000 barrels fewer than on Sunday. Workers also were returning to the more than 280 production platforms that had been evacuated. It can take several days for full production to be resumed after a storm leaves the Gulf of Mexico. The market was also weighed down by signs of further increases in output from the United States, which has ridden a wave of shale oil production to rise to become the world's biggest crude oil producer, ahead of traditional top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia. U.S. oil output from seven major shale formations is expected to rise by about 49,000 bpd in August, to a record 8.55 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly drilling productivity report. Overall U.S. crude production is now more than 12 million bpd. The rising U.S. output will further undermine the efforts by Russia and Saudi Arabia to reduce global oil inventories by convincing suppliers both in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and outside of OPEC to cut production. The global supplier group, known as OPEC+, agreed earlier this month to extend their production cuts for another nine months.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th July 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,425 1,433 1.440-1,450
Silver-XAG 15.50 16.00 16.20-16.50
Crude Oil 60.00-60.50 61.00 61.90-62.50
EURO/USD 1.1280 1.1320 1.13500-1.1390
GBP/USD 1.2500-1.2550 1.2600 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 108.50-109.05 109.50 110.15-110.65

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th July 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,409-1,400 1,390 1,380-1,374
Silver-XAG 15.25-15.05 14.60 14.30-13.90
Crude Oil 59.20 58.70-58.10 57.50
EURO/USD 1.1240-1.1210 1.1180 1.1150-1.1120
GBP/USD 1.2450-1.2440 1.2405 1.2350-1.2300
USD/JPY 108.00-107.60 107.00 106.50-106.00

Intra-Day Strategy (16th July 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1419.67/oz and low of US$1407.66/oz. Gold down by 0.106% at US$1413.38/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1303) and breakage below will call for 1296-1288. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1409-1374 with risk below 1374, targeting 1418-1425-1433 and 1440-1450. Sell below 1425-1450 keeping stop loss closing above 1450, targeting 1409-1400-1388 and 1380-1374.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,409-1,400
S2     1,390
S3     1,380-1,374
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,425
R2     1,433
R3     1.440-1,450

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

68.153

Buy
20-DMA   1405.59 Buy
50-DMA  

1345.26

Buy
100-DMA   1319.33 Buy
200-DMA   1289.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   68.621 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   18.175 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.20/oz and low of US$15.14/oz. Silver settled up by 1.025% at US$15.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below 200DMA (14.93), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 15.25-13.90 targeting 15.60-15.90 and 16.20-16.50; stop breakage below 13.20. Sell below 15.35-16.90 with stop loss above 16.90; targeting 15.35-15.05-14.60 and 14.30-13.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     15.25-15.05
S2     14.60
S3     14.30-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.50
R2     16.00
R3     16.20-16.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.5331 Buy
20-DMA   15.24 Sell
50-DMA   14.90 Buy
100-DMA   15.02 Buy
200-DMA   15.00 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0915 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$60.95/bbl, intraday low of US$59.27/bbl and settled down by 1.59% to close at US$59.37/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 60.50-63.30 with stop loss at 63.30; targeting 60.00-59.20 and 58.70-58.10. Buy above 60.00-58.10 with risk daily closing below 58.10 and targeting 60.50-61.00-61.90 and 62.50-63.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     59.20
S2     58.70-58.10
S3     57.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.00-60.50
R2     61.00
R3     61.90-62.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.821 Sell
20-DMA   58.27 Buy
50-DMA   57.75 Sell
100-DMA   59.34 Sell
200-DMA   57.79 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   62.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.783 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1252/EUR, high of US$1.1283/EUR and settled the day down by 0.158% to close at US$1.1257/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 200DMA (1.1349), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1280. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1240-1.1120 with risk below 1.1120, targeting 1.1280-1.1320 and 1.1390-1.1420. Sell below 1.1220-1.1390 targeting 1.1220-1.1180 and 1.1150-1.1120 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1400.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1240-1.1210
S2     1.1180
S3     1.1150-1.1120

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1280
R2     1.1320
R3     1.13500-1.1390

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.105 Buy
20-DMA   1.1288 Sell
50-DMA   1.1242 Sell
100-DMA   1.1253 Sell
200-DMA   1.1323 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   77.157 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0001 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2509/GBP, high of US$1.2577/GBP and settled the day down by 0.204% to close at US$1.2514/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2550-1.12760 with targets at 1.2500-1.2440-1.2405 and 1.2350-1.2300 top should be below 1.2760. Buy above 1.2550-1.2300 with targets 1.2550-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2700-1.2750 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2450-1.2440
S2     1.2405
S3     1.2350-1.2300

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2500-1.2550
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

39.097

Buy
20-DMA   1.2599 Sell
50-DMA   1.2674 Sell
100-DMA   1.2888 Sell
200-DMA   1.2862 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   56.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0061 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.10/USD and settled the day down by 0.0834% at JPY107.90/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 100DMA (110.64), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.05-111.00 with risk above 111.00 targeting 108.50-107.60-107.00 and 106.50-106.00. Long positions above 108.50-106.00 with targets of 109.05-109.50-110.00-110.60 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.00-107.60
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.05
R2     109.50
R3     110.15-110.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.190 Buy
20-DMA   108.03 Sell
50-DMA   108.96 Sell
100-DMA   110.14 Buy
200-DMA   110.88 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   90.955 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.295 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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