AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The yen rose on Tuesday as some investors tempered their optimism about the chances for a quick resolution to the U.S.-China trade war, which boosted so-called risk-off trades. Global markets have been whipsawed by dramatic twists in the trade dispute this month. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday flagged the possibility of a trade deal with China, days after both sides announced new tariffs. The dollar came under additional pressure versus the yen as a decline in U.S. Treasury yields showed some investors still favored the safety of government debt. The currency market also took some relief from a stronger-than-expected daily yuan fixing by the People's Bank of China, which many traders considered an attempt to slow the yuan's decline versus the dollar. While Washington and Beijing have shown a willingness to return to the negotiating table to resolve their trade row, there are lingering concerns about a lack of a clear path toward resolving a dispute that has dragged on for more than a year and hurt global growth, corporate profits and investments. The yen, which tends to be bought in times of economic uncertainty, also rose around 0.6% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars. On Monday the greenback rebounded from near eight- month lows of 104.46 yen after some signs of rapprochement between Washington and Beijing soothed investors' nerves. Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 summit of world leaders in France on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Chinese officials had contacted U.S. trade counterparts overnight and offered to return to the negotiating table. Trump's comments sparked a wave of so-called risk-on trades, which initially boosted the dollar, weakened safe-haven currencies, and lifted stock markets. However, some doubts have crept into markets as a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said he had not heard that a phone call between the two sides had taken place. The Commerce Ministry, which typically releases statements on trade calls, did not respond to a request for comment. Attempts to slow the greenback's rise against the yuan also weighed the dollar down versus the yen, traders said. Sterling traded at $1.2216 , after a 0.5% fall on Monday as investors reassessed whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had made any progress in convincing the European Union to renegotiate the Brexit agreement. Johnson said on Monday he was prepared to take Brexit talks with the European Union down to the very last minute before the Oct. 31 exit deadline, and if necessary to take a decision to leave without a deal on that day.
  • Gold prices inched up on Tuesday in Asia as China sent confusing signals on the trade war with the U.S. and said that it will not cave to U.S. demands. Comments by U.S. President Donald Trump calmed nerves overnight as he said Beijing had gotten in touch with top U.S. trade officials and was ready to come “back to the table” for negotiations. Traders were also relieved to hear Beijing’s top trade negotiator Liu He said China is ready to talk to the U.S. “with a calm attitude” in order to resolve the trade dispute. However, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of China’s state-owned media Global Times, said that trade negotiators from the two sides hadn’t spoken by phone in recent days and that Trump was exaggerating the significance of the trade contacts. Hu also stated that China did not change its position on trade issues and that it would not cave to U.S. pressure. The ongoing trade war has damaged global growth and raised concerns of a potential recession. Officials from both sides are set to resume in-person talks next month.
  • Oil prices gained on Tuesday in Asia despite conflicting signs about the Sino-U.S. trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump said he thinks China wants to make a deal “very badly” and that China called his trade team on Monday and said “let’s get back to the table.” However, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware the phone call had taken place. Hu Xijing, editor-in-chief of Chinese state-owned media Global Times, also denied Chinese negotiators have spoken with their U.S. counterparts. Their comments contrasted with remarks made by Liu He, China’s top trade negotiators, who said earlier this week that China is willing to solve the issues with the U.S. “through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude.” Despite today’s gains, oil prices are still down around 8% this month as concerns over global trade and a potential recession weigh on the demand outlook. Oil prices rose on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump predicted a trade deal with China after positive comments by Beijing, calming nerves after a round of tit-for-tat tariff hikes had sent markets reeling. Trump on Monday said he believed China was sincere about wanting to reach a deal, while Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said China was willing to resolve the dispute through "calm" negotiations, settling global markets Oil prices have fallen around 20% from a 2019 high reached in April, in part because of worries that the U.S.-China trade conflict is hurting the global economy, which could dent demand for oil. China's Commerce Ministry said last week it would impose additional tariffs of 5% or 10% on a total of 5,078 products originating from the United States, including crude oil, agricultural products and small aircraft. In retaliation, Trump said he was ordering U.S. companies to look at ways to close operations in China and make products in the United States. The measures are prompting reactions from Chinese companies, with Sinopec seeking a tariff exemption for importing U.S. oil in the coming months, sources told Reuters. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories likely fell last week, while distillate stockpiles rose, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated, on average, that crude inventories fell 2.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 23.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
27th August 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,539-1,550 1,555 1,562-1,570
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.50-18.90 19.50
Crude Oil 54.50-54.90 55.40 56.05-56.50
EURO/USD 1.1150 1.1250 1.1250-1.1290
GBP/USD 1.2250-1.2300 1.2350 1.2410
USD/JPY 106.10-106.50 107.00 107.60-108.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
27th August 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,526-1,516 1,509 1,500-1,489
Silver-XAG 17.50-17.00 16.80 16.50-15.90
Crude Oil 53.60-52.80 52.06 51.30-50.50
EURO/USD 1.1100-1.1050 1.1030 1.0990-1.0900
GBP/USD 1.2190-1.2160 1.2100 1.2065-1.2010
USD/JPY 105.60 105.00 104.60-104.00

Intra-Day Strategy (27th August 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1554.95/oz and low of US$1524.96/oz. Gold down by 0.698% at US$1527.07/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 50DMA (1410) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1526-1481 with risk below 1469, targeting 1532-1539-1550 and 1562-1570. Sell below 1532-1570 keeping stop loss closing above 1570, targeting 1526-1516-1500 and 1489-1481.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,526-1,516
S2     1,509
S3     1,500-1,489
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,539-1,550
R2     1,555
R3     1,562-1,570

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

67.193

Buy
20-DMA   1494.34 Buy
50-DMA  

1444.19

Buy
100-DMA   1370.09 Buy
200-DMA   1326.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.519 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   24.325 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.76/oz and low of US$17.48/oz. Silver settled up by 2.37% at US$17.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.90 targeting 17.90-18.50 and 18.90-19.50; stop breakage below 15.90. Sell below 17.90-19.50 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.50-17.00-16.80 and 16.50-15.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-17.00
S2     16.80
S3     16.50-15.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.50-18.90
R3     19.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.191 Buy
20-DMA   16.88 Sell
50-DMA   16.09 Buy
100-DMA   15.44 Buy
200-DMA   15.32 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   73.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.358 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$55.16/bbl, intraday low of US$52.88/bbl and settled up by 0.949% to close at US$53.63/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 54.50-56.50 with stop loss at 56.50; targeting 53.60-52.80-52.05 and 51.30-50.50. Buy above 53.60-50.60 with risk daily closing below 50.60 and targeting 54.50-54.90-55.40 and 56.50-57.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.60-52.80
S2     52.06
S3     51.30-50.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.50-54.90
R2     55.40
R3     56.05-56.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.377 Sell
20-DMA   54.73 Buy
50-DMA   56.46 Buy
100-DMA   58.21 Sell
200-DMA   56.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   19.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.440 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1093/EUR, high of US$1.1163/EUR and settled the day down by 0.444% to close at US$1.1100/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1293), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1350. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1100-1.0850 with risk below 1.0850, targeting 1.1160-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1290. Sell below 1.1150-1.1350 targeting 1.1130-1.1090 and 1.1005-1.0980 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1350.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1100-1.1050
S2     1.1030
S3     1.0990-1.0900

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1150
R2     1.1250
R3     1.1250-1.1290

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.585 Buy
20-DMA   1.1132 Sell
50-DMA   1.1204 Sell
100-DMA   1.2099 Sell
200-DMA   1.1280 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2207/GBP, high of US$1.2284/GBP and settled the day up by 0.345% to close at US$1.2216/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2250-1.2410 with targets at 1.2190-1.2160-1.2100and 1.2065-1.2010-1.1980 stop-loss should be below 1.2410. Buy above 1.2190-1.2010 with targets 1.2250-1.2300 and 1.2350-1.2410 with stop loss closing below 1.2010.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2190-1.2160
S2     1.2100
S3     1.2065-1.2010

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2250-1.2300
R2     1.2350
R3     1.2410

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.307

Buy
20-DMA   1.2134 Sell
50-DMA   1.2388 Sell
100-DMA   1.2625 Sell
200-DMA   1.2774 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   76.175 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0011 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY104.44/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.41/USD and settled the day up by 1.105% at JPY106.12/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 106.10-108.00 with risk above 108.00 targeting 105.80-105.00 and 104.50-104.00. Long positions above 105.80-104.00 with targets of 106.50-107.00 and 107.60-108.00-109.05 with stop below 106.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     105.60
S2     105.00
S3     104.60-104.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.10-106.50
R2     107.00
R3     107.60-108.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.684 Buy
20-DMA   106.46 sell
50-DMA   107.40 sell
100-DMA   108.79 Buy
200-DMA   109.88 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   45.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.467 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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