AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Shares in Asia fell on Tuesday as readings on China’s manufacturing activity failed to meet expectations, underscoring weakness in the world’s second-largest economy despite Beijing’s attempts to spur growth. Both official and private business surveys pointed to slower Chinese factory growth this month, dashing hopes for a steady reading or even a faster expansion. Data also showed a slower expansion in its services sector, adding to economic uncertainty. The dollar-denominated MSCI index of Chinese shares dropped 0.8 percent. But Chinese blue chips in Shanghai and Shenzhen kept losses in check, losing less than 0.1 percent as investors maintained hopes for further measures to prop up the economy. The weak manufacturing numbers suggest “stimulus is there to stay,” said Frances Cheung, head of macro strategy for Asia at Westpac. Upbeat data for March had prompted some analysts to scale back expectations of additional support measures. The quiet start to the week in global equity markets comes ahead of a two-day meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The committee is set to release its latest statement at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, as it seeks to balance robust economic growth against low inflation. In the latest slew of data sending mixed signals to the Fed, U.S. consumer spending rose at the fastest pace in more than 9-1/2 years in March, but core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the bank’s favored inflation measure, logged its smallest annual rise in 14 months.
  • The dollar was all but flatlining in Asia on Tuesday as investors awaited readings on Chinese manufacturing and the European economy to gauge the pulse of the global economy. China's official purchasing management index (PMI) is forecast to hold at 50.5 in April after bouncing in March in what analysts hoped was evidence that policy stimulus was gaining traction in the economy. A solid report could support risk assets and currencies leveraged to Chinese growth, including the Australian dollar, while pressuring the safe-haven yen. Figures for economic growth in the Eurozone out later in the session are forecast to show a modest rise of 0.3 percent in the first quarter, but at least that would be up from the previous quarter and may be taken as a hint of stabilization. Even such tentative growth could squeeze speculators who have been amassing large short positions in the euro, worth a net $14.8 billion in the week to April 23. The major hurdle for the dollar remains the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting which ends on Wednesday with a statement and a news conference by Chairman Jerome Powel. No change in policy is expected but the market is keen to hear how Powell resolves the divergence between solid economic growth and slowing inflation. U.S. data overnight showed consumer spending enjoyed the sharpest rebound in 9-1/2 years in March, yet core inflation still slowed to a 14-month low. The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favored measure of inflation, slowed to 1.6 percent and further way from the central bank's 2 percent target. The latest round of trade talks between the U.S. and China will begin in Beijing this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin told the New York Times that negotiations are in "the final laps,” while U.S. President Donald Trump said last week that he would soon host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House and might sign a possible agreement on trade there. The FOMC, the Fed's rate-making body, is currently targeting the rate at 2.25% to 2.5%. No change in policy is expected but much attention will center on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference after the rate decision is announced.
  • Oil prices continued to drop on Tuesday in Asia following U.S. President Donald Trump’s earlier claim that he had "called" OPEC to lower U.S. gasoline prices Prices closed off session-lows on Monday after OPEC's Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo later denied having spoken with the president. The president later tweeted that he had spoken to Saudi Arabia. Last week, oil prices rallied after Trump tightened sanctions against Iran by ending all exemptions that major buyers previously had. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:BAC) said in a research note that was cited by Reuters that "Iranian oil production will fall to 1.9 million barrels per day in 2H19 from 3.6 million barrels per day in 3Q18 as U.S. sanctions kick in and waivers eventually expire". Despite this, the bank said it expected "a nearly balanced market in 2019" as output from OPEC and also the United States will rise. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP) upgraded its price forecasts for WTI to $63 per barrel in 2019, up $2 from its previous forecast. The bank said Brent will average $71 per barrel, up $3 from an earlier estimate In other news, Russian leader Vladimir Putin surprisingly reminded his allies in Riyadh on Monday about Moscow's commitment since December to stick to OPEC+ production cuts, and hoped the Saudis would also honor their part in keeping to the deal. Meanwhile, a below-forecast China PMI data also dented investor sentiment and weighed on oil prices today.Both official PMI and non-manufacturing PMI were lower than expected for the month of April, the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The private Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI also came in lower than expected.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
30th August 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,286 1,294 1,300-1,309
Silver-XAG 15.05-15.30 15.60 16.00-16.40
Crude Oil 63.65 64.20 65.00-65.60
EURO/USD 1.1200 1.1280-1.1330 1.1360
GBP/USD 1.2970 1.3010 1.3060-1.3100
USD/JPY 112.00-112.50 113.00 113.70

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
30th August 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,276-1,269 1,260 1,251-1,244
Silver-XAG 14.90-14.75 14.50 14.20-13.90
Crude Oil 63.00-61.83 60.80 60.00-59.60
EURO/USD 1.1175-1.1150 1.1100 1.1070-1.1020
GBP/USD 1.2920-1.2850 1.2800 1.2760-1.2700
USD/JPY 111.50-110.60 110.00 109.55-109.05

Intra-Day Strategy (30th August 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1286.60/oz and low of US$1278.00/oz. Gold up by 0.475% at US$1279.65/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 100DMA (1283) and breakage below will call for 1254-1247. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in neutral region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1278-1244 with risk below 1244, targeting 1286-1294 and 1300-1309. Sell below 1286-1309 keeping stop loss closing above 1310, targeting 1269-1261 and 1251-1244.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,276-1,269
S2     1,260
S3     1,251-1,244
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,286
R2     1,294
R3     1,300-1,309

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.604

Buy
20-DMA   1286.50 Sell
50-DMA  

1300.00

Sell
100-DMA   1291.76 Buy
200-DMA   1251.34 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   82.073 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -5.858 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$15.06/oz and low of US$14.86/oz. Silver settled down by 1.056% at US$14.89/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining below200DMA (15.12), breakage above will lead to 15.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in oversold region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 14.90-14.00 targeting 15.30-15.60-15.90 and 16.40-17.00; stop breakage below 14.00. Sell below 15.30-17.00 with stop loss above 17.00; targeting 15.10-14.85-14.50 and 14.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     14.90-14.75
S2     14.50
S3     14.20-13.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     15.05-15.30
R2     15.60
R3     16.00-16.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   69.142 Buy
20-DMA   15.02 Sell
50-DMA   15.26 Sell
100-DMA   15.31 Buy
200-DMA   14.96 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0440 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$63.68/bbl, intraday low of US$62.46/bbl and settled up by 1.09% to close at US$63.58/bl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 63.00-65.60 with stop loss at 65.60; targeting 61.80-60.80 and 60.10-59.60. Buy above 61.80-59.60 with risk daily closing below 59.60 and targeting 63.00-63.65-64.20 and 65.00-65.60.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     63.00-61.83
S2     60.80
S3     60.00-59.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     63.65
R2     64.20
R3     65.00-65.60

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.250 Sell
20-DMA   63.96 Buy
50-DMA   60.38 Buy
100-DMA   55.82 Buy
200-DMA   60.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   23.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   1.106 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1144/EUR, high of US$1.1186/EUR and settled the day up by 0.367% to close at US$1.1185/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1364), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1560-1.1600. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in oversold territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1175-1.1360 with risk below 1.1330, targeting 1.1150-1.1200 and 1.1280-1.1305-1.1350. Sell below 1.1200-1.1360 targeting 1.1175-1.1140-1.1100 and 1.1070-1.1020 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1020.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1175-1.1150
S2     1.1100
S3     1.1070-1.1020

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1200
R2     1.1280-1.1330
R3     1.1360

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.804 Buy
20-DMA   1.1231 Sell
50-DMA   1.1276 Sell
100-DMA   1.1330 Sell
200-DMA   1.1421 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   44.157 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.009 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2904/GBP, high of US$1.2946/GBP and settled the day up by 0.139% to close at US$1.2932/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2977) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is approaching neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2900-1.3200 with targets at 1.2850-1.2800 and 1.2770-1.2700 and stop should be below 1.3300. Buy above 1.2850-1.2700 with targets 1.2900-1.2970-1.3010 and 1.3060-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2920-1.2850
S2     1.2800
S3     1.2760-1.2700

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2970
R2     1.3010
R3     1.3060-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

33.597

Buy
20-DMA   1.3033 Sell
50-DMA   1.3103 Sell
100-DMA   1.2960 Buy
200-DMA   1.2962 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   5.996 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0052 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY111.53/USD and made an intraday high of JPY111.89/USD and settled the day up by 0.100% at JPY111.64/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (110.42), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 112.00-113.70 with risk above 113.70 targeting 111.50-111.00-110.60 and 110.10-109.55-109.05. Long positions above 111.50-109.05 with targets of 111.90-12.25 and 113.00-113.70 with stop below 107.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     111.50-110.60
S2     110.00
S3     109.55-109.05

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     112.00-112.50
R2     113.00
R3     113.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.5601 Buy
20-DMA   111.66 Buy
50-DMA   110.28 Buy
100-DMA   110.80 Buy
200-DMA   111.51 Buy
STOCH(9,6)   88.575 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.222 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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