AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • U.S. stock futures dove on Monday after Washington and Beijing placed new taxes on each other’s goods, while Argentina imposed capital controls and cast a new spotlight on emerging-market risks. The United States imposed 15% tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods and China began to impose new duties on a $75 billion target list. U.S. President Donald Trump said both sides would still meet for talks later this month. Wall Street was shut for the Labor Day holiday on Monday, but futures contracts tied to the major indexes were trading and spiked lower. European and mainland Chinese shares ticked higher, aided by a private sector survey that showed factor activity unexpectedly expanded in August in China, though gains in the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index contrasted with official data that pointed to further contraction. Pledges by the European Central Bank and Chinese government to counteract manufacturing weakness are giving some support to stocks. Italian bond yields fell toward recent multi-year lows after Italy’s prime minister said at the weekend talks on a new government should be completed by Wednesday. [GVD/EUR] The 5-Star Movement and the Democratic Party held talks over the weekend on cabinet posts and a common agenda Deeper problems persist. Euro zone manufacturing activity contracted for a seventh month in August as declining demand sapped optimism, a survey showed. Sterling fell sharply as Boris Johnson gathered an emergency meeting, fueling expectations the prime minister was preparing to call a snap election should lawmakers this week vote to delay Britain's exit from the European Union. Still, some observers said the market’s initial reaction was likely exaggerated by algorithm-run computers in thin trading on a U.S. holiday.
  • Sterling neared its weakest against the U.S. dollar in more than two years on Tuesday amid mounting uncertainty as British lawmakers prepared to vote on the first stage of a plan to block Prime Minister Boris Johnson from pursuing a no-deal Brexit. Johnson’s opponents will put forward a vote that would enable them to seize control of the parliamentary agenda on Wednesday to try to pass legislation that would force Johnson to seek a three-month delay to Britain’s EU exit. Johnson has made it clear that if the government was defeated, it would hold a vote on Wednesday to approve an early election, most likely to be held on Oct. 14. A messy exit from the European Union certain to weaken the pound, but it could roil other currencies and other markets as investors adjust their positions to exit trades in riskier assets. The euro fell to its weakest in more than two years against the dollar after a survey on Monday showed European manufacturing contracted for seven straight months, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy at a meeting next week. The ECB’s Governing Council holds its next monetary policy meeting on Sept. 12 and has all but promised a stimulus package, with economic growth faltering amid a global trade war and Germany’s manufacturing sector already in recession. Market expectations are that it will carry out several interest rate cuts in the coming year, along with a fresh round of bond purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing. The euro has been pressured lower by expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates further into negative territory next week with economic growth faltering amid a global trade war and Germany's manufacturing sector already in recession. In the latest escalation of the trade war, the U.S. on Sunday began imposing 15% tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods, and China began imposing new duties on U.S. crude oil. Although U.S. President Donald Trump has said both sides would still meet for talks later this month, tensions show little sign of abating.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war cast a pall over markets, with soft South Korean data adding to concerns over emerging markets and a rise in OPEC output. The United States this week imposed 15% tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods and China began to impose new duties on a $75 billion target list, deepening the trade war that has rumbled on for more than a year. U.S. President Donald Trump said both sides would still meet for talks later this month. South Korea's economy turned out to have expanded less than estimated during the second quarter as exports were revised down in the face of the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute, central bank data showed on Tuesday. A move on Sunday by Argentina to impose capital controls is also casting a spotlight on emerging market risks. Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rose in August for the first month this year as higher supply from Iraq and Nigeria outweighed restraint by top Saudi Arabia and losses caused by U.S. sanctions on Iran. OPEC, Russia and other non-members, known as OPEC+, agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd from Jan. 1 this year. OPEC's share of the cut is 800,000 bpd, to be delivered by 11 members and exempting Iran, Libya and Venezuela. Russian oil production in August rose to 11.294 million barrels per day (bpd), topping the rate Moscow has pledged to cap output at under a pact with other producers and hitting its highest since March, data showed on Monday. Nonetheless, Russia aims to fully comply with an agreement during September to cut oil production among OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in a statement on Monday. Data due this week on U.S. inventory levels will be delayed by a day to Wednesday and Thursday due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd September 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,532-1,539 1,550 1,555-1,562
Silver-XAG 18.60-18.90 19.50 20.00-20.50
Crude Oil 56.50 56.50 57.40-58.00
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.1050 1.1070 1.1100-1.1150
GBP/USD 1.2065-1.2100 1.2160 1.2190-1.2250
USD/JPY 106.50 107.00 107.60-108.20

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd September 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,516 1,509-1,500 1,490
Silver-XAG 18.10-17.90 17.50 16.80-16.50
Crude Oil 54.50 53.60 53.00-51.40
EURO/USD 1.0860 1.0860 1.0815
GBP/USD 1.2010-1.1980 1.1900 1.1850-1.1800
USD/JPY 106.10-105.60 105.00 104.60-104.00

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd September 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1529.79/oz and low of US$1519.24/oz. Gold up by 0.183% at US$1529.01/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1516-1490 with risk below 1490, targeting 1532-1539-1550 and 1562-1570. Sell below 1533-1570 keeping stop loss closing above 1570, targeting 1516-1509 and 1500-1489.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,516
S2     1,509-1,500
S3     1,490
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,532-1,539
R2     1,550
R3     1,555-1,562

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.734

Buy
20-DMA   1512.74 Buy
50-DMA  

1454.01

Buy
100-DMA   1377.43 Buy
200-DMA   1331.20 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.519 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   27.325 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$18.55/oz and low of US$18.25/oz. Silver settled up by 0.388% at US$18.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 18.10-15.90 targeting 18.60-18.90 and 19.50-20.00-20.50; stop breakage below 15.90. Sell below 18.60-20.50 with stop loss above 20.50; targeting 18.50-17.90-17.50 and 16.80-16.50.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.10-17.90
S2     17.50
S3     16.80-16.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.60-18.90
R2     19.50
R3     20.00-20.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   75.523 Buy
20-DMA   17.37 Sell
50-DMA   16.39 Buy
100-DMA   15.60 Buy
200-DMA   15.42 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   74.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.358 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$55.10/bbl, intraday low of US$54.20/bbl and settled down by 0.495% to close at US$54.56/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

Trading Strategy: Neutral

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 100DMA i.e. 55.88 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 59.60. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in decreasing mode will bring bearish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in oversold region and more downside can be expected.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.50
S2     53.60
S3     53.00-51.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.50
R2     56.50
R3     57.40-58.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.377 Sell
20-DMA   54.82 Buy
50-DMA   56.41 Buy
100-DMA   57.88 Sell
200-DMA   56.17 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   64.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.245 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD on Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0957/EUR, high of US$1.0996/EUR and settled the day down by 0.188% to close at US$1.0967/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 100DMA (1.1293), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1320-1.1350. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0960-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1030-1.1050-1.1070 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1010-1.1150 targeting 1.0960-1.0910 and 1.0860-1.0815 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1150.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0860
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0815

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030-1.1050
R2     1.1070
R3     1.1100-1.1150

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   32.413 Buy
20-DMA   1.1132 Sell
50-DMA   1.1180 Sell
100-DMA   1.1199 Sell
200-DMA   1.1272 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   12.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.003 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2034/GBP, high of US$1.2174/GBP and settled the day down by 0.748% to close at US$1.2062/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2065-1.2250 with targets at 1.2010-1.1980 and 1.1900-1.1850-1.1800 stop-loss should be below 1.2250. Buy above 1.2010-1.1800 with targets 1.2065-1.2100-1.2190 and 1.2250-1.2300-1.2350 with stop loss closing below 1.1800.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2010-1.1980
S2     1.1900
S3     1.1850-1.1800

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2065-1.2100
R2     1.2160
R3     1.2190-1.2250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

36.307

Buy
20-DMA   1.2138 Sell
50-DMA   1.2320 Sell
100-DMA   1.2563 Sell
200-DMA   1.2754 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   9.175 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0004 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY106.18/USD and made an intraday high of JPY106.39/USD and settled the day up by 0.117% at JPY106.18/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     106.10-105.60
S2     105.00
S3     104.60-104.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     106.50
R2     107.00
R3     107.60-108.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.360 Buy
20-DMA   106.13 Sell
50-DMA   107.29 Sell
100-DMA   108.63 Buy
200-DMA   109.78 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   66.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.412 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING