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Daily Market Lookup

  • The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after weekend attacks on Saudi oil plants disrupted global oil supplies. Drone strikes attacked an oil processing facility at Abqaiq, the world’s largest, and the nearby Khurais oil field on Saturday and knocked out 5% of global oil supply. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed responsibility for the damage, but the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeohas pointed the finger directly at Iran as he said over the weekend thatIran has launched an “unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.” The news intensified tensions in the Middle East, sending the yen higher as it drew safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar traded slightly lower ahead of interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies slipped 0.1% to 97.732. Data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August. That came after better-than-expected producer price inflation data on Wednesday and consumer price data on Thursday. The Bank of Japan is also due to meet this week. Some believe the central bank may push interest rates further into negative territory and ramp up stimulating policies. Sino-U.S. trade developments also remained under the spotlight as junior U.S. and Chinese officials will reportedly meet this week ahead of planned talks between senior trade negotiators in October. Tensions between the two sides eased somewhat in recent weeks after Beijing exempted some agricultural products from additional tariffs on U.S. goods last week and U.S. President Donald Trump postponed a tariff increase on a range of Chinese goods by two weeks.
  • The dollar fell while safe-havens and currencies of oil producing countries rallied on Monday, following an attack on Saudi Arabian refining facilities that disrupted global oil supply and heightened Middle East tensions. Beyond oil, currency markets are awaiting the outcome of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week and crucial economic data in Australia and New Zealand that could determine the rates outlook in the Antipodes. Much of the risk appetite on display last week was driven by signs of a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, with both sides offering olive branches ahead of trade talks next month. However with few solid signs of progress, sentiment remains fragile In the United States, investors who had begun trimming expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday are now certain rates will fall and divided only over how much. Markets also expect the Bank of Japan to push interest rates further into negative territory, with a third of economists polled by Reuters last week expecting stimulus to be ramped up Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a public holiday. China's premier on Monday said maintaining national economic growth above 6% is difficult, with protectionism weighing. Retail sales and industrial production figures due on Monday are likely to give further insight into the health of the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan was flat in morning trade offshore . The pound held last week's gains, as fears of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a divorce deal ebbed, while a news report on Friday also raised hopes that a deal could be secured by Oct. 31.
  • Oil prices soared on Monday, with Brent crude posting its biggest intra-day percentage gain since the Gulf War in 1991, after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities on Saturday shut about 5% of global supply. audi Arabia is the world's biggest oil exporter and the attack on state-owned producer Saudi Aramco's crude processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais has cut output by 5.7 million barrels per day. The company has not given a timeline for the resumption of full output. A source close to the matter told Reuters the return to full oil capacity could take "weeks, not days." Saudi Arabia's oil exports will continue as normal this week as the kingdom taps into stocks from its large storage facilities, an industry source briefed on the developments told Reuters on Sunday. U.S. President Donald Trump said he approved the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) if needed in a quantity to be determined due to the attack. The attack on plants in the heartland of Saudi Arabia's oil industry, including the world's biggest petroleum-processing facility at Abqaiq, came from the direction of Iran, and cruise missiles may have been used, according to a senior U.S. official. Initial reports indicated the attack came from Yemen. Trump also said the United States was "locked and loaded" for a potential response to the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. Saudi Arabia is set to become a significant buyer of refined products after the attacks, consultancy Energy Aspects said in a note. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has told one Indian refinery there will be no immediate impact on oil supplies as it will deliver crude from other sources and has adequate inventory, a source with the refinery said.
  • Other Asian buyers such as Thailand have also said the attack would have no immediate impact on oil imports. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday the United States was "locked and loaded" for a potential response to the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, after a senior U.S. administration official said Iran was to blame. Trump also authorized the use of the U.S. emergency oil stockpile to ensure stable supplies after the attack, which shut 5% of world production and sent crude prices soaring more than 19% in early trade on Monday, before moderating to show a 10% gain. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!" Trump said on Twitter.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
16th September 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,509 1,520 1532-1,539
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.10 18.60-18.90
Crude Oil 60.20-60.90 61.60 62.00-62.40
EURO/USD 1.1090-1.1130 1.1160 1.1190-1.1260
GBP/USD 1.2515-1.2570 1.2600 1.2650-1.2710
USD/JPY 108.00-108.90 109.55 110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
16th September 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,480 1,474 1,469-1,460
Silver-XAG 17.50-16.90 16.70 15.90-15.60
Crude Oil 58.35-57.60 56.50 56.05-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1050-1.1030 1.0940 1.0910-1.0860
GBP/USD 1.2490-1.2440 1.2400 1.2350-1.2310
USD/JPY 107.60 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (16th September 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1508.95/oz and low of US$1485.71/oz. Gold down by 0.451% at US$1488.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1500-1460 with risk below 1460, targeting 1509-1520 and 1532-1539. Sell below 1509-1539 keeping stop loss closing above 1539, targeting 1489-1480 and 1469-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,500-1,480
S2     1,474
S3     1,469-1,460
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1532-1,539

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.965

Buy
20-DMA   1515.86 Sell
50-DMA  

1476.37

Buy
100-DMA   1402.92 Buy
200-DMA   1347.31 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   31.123 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   4.123 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$18.17/oz and low of US$17.99/oz. Silver settled down by 3.342% at US$17.43/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.60 targeting 17.90-18.20 and 18.60-18.90; stop breakage below 16.90. Sell below 17.90-18.90 with stop loss above 18.90; targeting 17.50-16.90-16.70 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-16.90
S2     16.70
S3     15.90-15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.10
R3     18.60-18.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.718 Buy
20-DMA   17.99 Buy
50-DMA   16.96 Buy
100-DMA   15.90 Buy
200-DMA   15.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.308 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$55.58/bbl, intraday low of US$54.35/bbl and settled down by 0.555% to close at US$54.74/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.35-55.40 with risk daily closing below 55.40 and targeting 60.20-60.90-61.60 and 62.00-62.40. Sell below 60.20-62.40 with stop loss at 62.40; targeting 58.35-57.60-56.50 and 56.05-55.4.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.35-57.60
S2     56.50
S3     56.05-55.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     60.20-60.90
R2     61.60
R3     62.00-62.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.413 Sell
20-DMA   55.58 Sell
50-DMA   56.02 Sell
100-DMA   57.10 Sell
200-DMA   56.35 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   24.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0663 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Friday made an intraday low of US$1.10548/EUR, high of US$1.1108/EUR and settled the day up by 0.094% to close at US$1.1073/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1090-1.1200 targeting 1.1050-1.1020-1.0960 and 1.0910-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1200.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1050-1.1030
S2     1.0940
S3     1.0910-1.0860

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1090-1.1130
R2     1.1160
R3     1.1190-1.1260

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.7550 Buy
20-DMA   1.1052 Buy
50-DMA   1.1129 Sell
100-DMA   1.1182 Sell
200-DMA   1.1258 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2226/GBP, high of US$1.2505/GBP and settled the day up by 1.382% to close at US$1.2501/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2515-1.2710 with targets at 1.2490-1.2440-1.2400 and 1.2350-1.2310-1.2250 stop-loss should be below 1.2400. Buy above 1.2490-1.2300 with targets 1.2515-1.2570-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2710 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2490-1.2440
S2     1.2400
S3     1.2350-1.2310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2515-1.2570
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2710

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.863

Buy
20-DMA   1.2241 Buy
50-DMA   1.2276 Buy
100-DMA   1.2514 Sell
200-DMA   1.2738 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   80.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0037 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY108.25/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.25/USD and settled the day up by 0.469% at JPY108.09/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.60-109.55 with risk above 109.55 targeting 107.00-106.50-106.10 and 105.80-105.00-104.50. Long positions above 107.10-105.00 with targets of 107.60-108.20 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.00-108.90
R2     109.55
R3     110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.821 Buy
20-DMA   106.35 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   108.21 Buy
200-DMA   109.52 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   88.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.002 Buy

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