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Daily Market Lookup

  • The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased less than expected last week, pointing to strong labor market conditions that should continue to support an economy growing at a moderate pace. The steady economic growth pace was also underscored by other data on Thursday showing home resale’s rising in August to a 17-month high. While factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowed in September, orders remained solid, leading manufacturers in the region to increase employment and boost hours for workers. The reports suggested that housing and manufacturing, the two weak spots in the economy, were stabilizing. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, citing risks to the longest economic expansion in history from a year-long U.S.-China trade war and slowing economic growth overseas. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expected the economy, now in its 11th year of expansion, to continue to “expand at a moderate rate,” but noted trade tensions were “weighing on U.S. investment and exports.” The U.S. central bank cut rates in July for the first time since 2008. The Fed offered mixed signals on further monetary policy easing. Data, including retail sales, so far in the third quarter suggest the economy is growing close to the April-June quarter’s 2.0% annualized rate. Financial markets have been flagging a recession. The Atlanta Fed is estimating gross domestic product rising at a 1.9% pace this quarter. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000 for the week ended Sept. 14, the government said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims increasing to 213,000 in the latest week. Layoffs remain low despite the trade tensions, which have weighed on business investment and manufacturing. But there are concerns that slowing job growth could take some shine off robust consumer spending, which is largely driving the economy. Last week’s claims data covered the survey period for the nonfarm payrolls component of September’s employment report. Claims were little changed between the August and September survey periods suggesting a steady pace of job growth this month. The economy created 130,000 jobs in August. Economists say it is unclear whether the loss of momentum in hiring is due to ebbing demand for labor or a shortage of qualified workers. Job gains have averaged 158,000 per month this year, still above the roughly 100,000 per month needed to keep up with growth in the working age population and sustain a healthy pace of consumer spending.
  • The dollar fell against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasuries rose. Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher, with Microsoft’s planned share buy-back helping to push the benchmark S&P 500 within striking distance of its record high. In a second report on Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales increased 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million units last month. The increase in home resales, which make up about 90 percent of U.S. home sales, came on the heels of data on Wednesday showing housing starts and building permits surged to a more than 12-year high in August In a third report, the Philadelphia Fed said its business conditions index fell to a reading of 12.0 in September from 16.8 in August. The survey’s measure of new orders dipped to 24.8 this month from 25.8. Its measure of factory employment in the region that covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware jumped to a reading of 15.8 in September from 3.6 in the prior month. A gauge of the factory workweek increased to a reading of 13.0 from 6.8 in August. Manufacturing, which makes up about 11% of the economy, has shouldered the brunt of the U.S.-China trade war. A measure of national manufacturing activity contracted in August for the first time in three years. While factory surveys have remained weak, so-called hard data have suggested the manufacturing downturn could soon run its course. Manufacturing production rebounded 0.5% in August after falling 0.4% in July, the Fed reported on Tuesday. The British pound roses against the U.S. dollar on Friday in Asia after the European Union offered some Brexit deal “hope.” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he believes a Brexit deal could be passed before the deadline. Newly appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously said he would deliver Brexit by the deadline even if it means not having a deal. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday and Asia and are set to record a more-than-7% weekly gain after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s major oil facilities last weekend escalated tensions in the Middle East. The attack happened on Saturday and knocked out almost half of Saudi Arabia’s production. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for the assault, but Tehran denied any involvement. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested accusations that attacks on Saudi oil sites were "an act of war" may be aimed at deceiving U.S. President Donald Trump into a war against Tehran. His comments came after Trump reportedly ordered the U.S. Treasury to "substantially increase sanctions" on Tehran. Concerns over disruption to oil supplies out of Saudi Arabia remained after the kingdom asked Iraq for 20 million barrels of crude to supply domestic refineries. The news added to doubts over whether Saudi Arabia will be able to return to full output this month. Earlier this week Saudi said production will be back to normal levels in two to three weeks, which means restoring output to about 10 million barrels per day.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
20th September 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,509 1,520 1,532-1,539
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.10 18.60-18.90
Crude Oil 59.00-60.20 60.90 61.60-62.40
EURO/USD 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180 1.1250
GBP/USD 1.2570 1.2600-1.2650 1.2700
USD/JPY 108.00-108.50 108.90 109.55-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
20th September 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,489 1,480 1,474-1,469
Silver-XAG 17.50-16.90 16.70 15.90-15.60
Crude Oil 58.20-57.60 56.75 56.00-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1030-1.1000 1.0940 1.0910-1.0860
GBP/USD 1.2505-1.2440 1.2400 1.2350-1.2310
USD/JPY 107.60 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (20th September 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1504.44/oz and low of US$1488.93/oz. Gold up by 0.321% at US$1498.76/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1494-1460 with risk below 1460, targeting 1509-1520 and 1532-1539. Sell below 1509-1539 keeping stop loss closing above 1539, targeting 1500-1489-1480 and 1469-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,500-1,489
S2     1,480
S3     1,474-1,469
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1,532-1,539

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.965

Buy
20-DMA   1513.77 Sell
50-DMA  

1483.50

Buy
100-DMA   1411.46 Buy
200-DMA   1352.31 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.123 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.846 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.92/oz and low of US$17.57/oz. Silver settled up by 0.384% at US$17.77/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.50-15.60 targeting 17.90-18.20 and 18.60-18.90; stop breakage below 16.90. Sell below 17.90-18.90 with stop loss above 18.90; targeting 17.50-16.90-16.70 and 16.00-15.60.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.50-16.90
S2     16.70
S3     15.90-15.60

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.10
R3     18.60-18.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.718 Buy
20-DMA   18.17 Buy
50-DMA   17.23 Buy
100-DMA   16.05 Buy
200-DMA   15.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.245 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$59.42/bbl, intraday low of US$57.95/bbl and settled up by 0.816% to close at US$58.55/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.20-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.00-60.20-60.90 and 61.60-62.40-63.10. Sell below 59.00-62.40 with stop loss at 62.40; targeting 58.20-57.60-56.90 and 56.00-55.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.20-57.60
S2     56.75
S3     56.00-55.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-60.20
R2     60.90
R3     61.60-62.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.413 Sell
20-DMA   56.12 Buy
50-DMA   56.06 Buy
100-DMA   57.00 Buy
200-DMA   56.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   62.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.753 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.1022/EUR, high of US$1.1072/EUR and settled the day up by 0.100% to close at US$1.1039/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1090-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1090-1.1250 targeting 1.1030-1.1000-1.0940 and 1.0910-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1030-1.1000
S2     1.0940
S3     1.0910-1.0860

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1090
R2     1.1130-1.1180
R3     1.1250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1044 Sell
50-DMA   1.1117 Sell
100-DMA   1.1178 Sell
200-DMA   1.1253 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   64.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2437/GBP, high of US$1.2559/GBP and settled the day up by 0.411% to close at US$1.2519/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2575-1.2710 with targets at 1.2510-1.2440-1.2400 and 1.2350-1.2310-1.2250 stop-loss should be below 1.2400. Buy above 1.2510-1.2300 with targets 1.2515-1.2570-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2710 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2505-1.2440
S2     1.2400
S3     1.2350-1.2310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2570
R2     1.2600-1.2650
R3     1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.863

Buy
20-DMA   1.2317 Buy
50-DMA   1.2274 Buy
100-DMA   1.2498 Sell
200-DMA   1.2734 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.78/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.46/USD and settled the day down by 0.392% at JPY107.99/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-110.00 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.60-107.00 and 106.50-106.10-105.80. Long positions above 107.60-105.00 with targets of 108.00-108.50-108.90 and 109.55-110.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.60
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.00-108.50
R2     108.90
R3     109.55-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.821 Buy
20-DMA   107.11 Sell
50-DMA   107.09 Sell
100-DMA   107.93 Buy
200-DMA   109.31 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   63.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.359 Buy

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