AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Most Asian share markets slipped on Monday as investors waited for more clarity on the Sino-U.S. trade talks after recent negotiations, while oil gained more than 1% as Middle East tensions remained elevated. Analysts said investor sentiment was fragile with civil unrest in Hong Kong, tensions in the Middle East and worries over whether the United States and China would sign a trade deal soon. Moves were further exaggerated by low volumes as Japanese markets were shut for a public holiday. Over the weekend, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office issued a brief statement characterizing the two days of talks with China as “productive.” It added that a principal-level trade meeting in Washington would take place in October, as previously planned. China’s Commerce Ministry, in a brief statement, described the talks as “constructive”, and said they had also had a good discussion on “detailed arrangements” for the high-level talks in October. Additionally, the United States removed tariffs from more than 400 Chinese products in response to requests from U.S. companies. Despite the improved tone, markets still remain unconvinced about the possibility of deal soon. Investors were rattled by news on Friday that Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to U.S. farms this week following their two days of negotiations in Washington. The Pentagon has ordered additional troops to be deployed in the Gulf region to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s air and missile defenses following an attack on Saudi oil facilities. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday the additional troops are for “deterrence and defense” and Washington aimed to avoid war with Iran. Markets will closely watch September manufacturing activity surveys due from the United States and European Union later in the day for any signs of a rebound.
  • Investors will be looking ahead to appearances by a number of Federal Reserve policymakers this week after last week’s Fed meeting pointed to growing divisions among officials over the future direction of monetary policy. Economic data due this week, including a report on durable goods orders will be closely watched amid concerns over the strength of the economy. Brexit will also remain in the spotlight, with Britain's Supreme Court expected to make a ruling on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully in suspending parliament. Investors will also be closely following developments after hopes for a breakthrough in the U.S. - China trade war receded further on Friday, when Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to farms in Montana and Nebraska. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies rose on Friday, and posted its first weekly increase in three, helped by hopes that the Fed would not lower rates aggressively. The Fed cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday, but gave mixed signals on future rate cuts. Other major central banks, including the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, left rates unchanged last week. Sterling retreated from multi-month highs versus the greenback and the euro after the Irish foreign minister said that London and the European Union were not yet close to a Brexit deal. Sterling had briefly been the biggest gainer against the dollar overnight after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said late Thursday he thought Brussels could reach agreement with Britain on its departure from the European Union.
  • Investors will be looking ahead to appearances by a number of Federal Reserve policymakers this week after last week’s Fed meeting pointed to growing divisions among officials over the future direction of monetary policy. Economic data due this week, including a report on durable goods orders will be closely watched amid concerns over the strength of the economy. Brexit will also remain in the spotlight, with Britain's Supreme Court expected to make a ruling on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully in suspending parliament. Investors will also be closely following developments after hopes for a breakthrough in the U.S. - China trade war receded further on Friday, when Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to farms in Montana and Nebraska. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies rose on Friday, and posted its first weekly increase in three, helped by hopes that the Fed would not lower rates aggressively. The Fed cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday, but gave mixed signals on future rate cuts. Other major central banks, including the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, left rates unchanged last week. Sterling retreated from multi-month highs versus the greenback and the euro after the Irish foreign minister said that London and the European Union were not yet close to a Brexit deal Sterling had briefly been the biggest gainer against the dollar overnight after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said late Thursday he thought Brussels could reach agreement with Britain on its departure from the European Union. Oil prices rose to their highest in two sessions on Monday amid concerns about oil supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia and elevated tensions in Middle East. Despite efforts by the world's top oil exporter Saudi Arabia to reassure global markets that it can resume full production by the end of this month after an attack on its largest oil processing facility in mid-September, buyers and traders remained skeptical. State oil company Saudi Aramco has switched crude grades and pushed back crude and oil products deliveries to customers by days following the attack. Tensions in the Middle East have escalated after the attack. The Pentagon has ordered additional troops to be deployed in the Gulf region to strengthen Saudi Arabia's air and missile defenses following an attack on Saudi oil facilities. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday that the troops are for "deterrence and defense" and Washington aimed to avoid war with Iran.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd September 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,520 1,532-1,539 1,545
Silver-XAG 18.05-18.50 18.90 19.20-19.65
Crude Oil 59.00-60.20 60.90 61.60-62.40
EURO/USD 1.1030--1.1090 1.1130 1.1180-1.1250
GBP/USD 1.2505-1.2570 1.2600 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 108.00-108.50 108.90 109.55-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd September 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,509-1,500 1,489 1,480-1,474
Silver-XAG 17.90-17.50 17.00 16.70-16.10
Crude Oil 58.20-57.60 56.75 56.00-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1000 1.0940 1.0910-1.0860
GBP/USD 1.2440 1.2400 1.2350-1.2310
USD/JPY 107.50 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd September 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1516.99/oz and low of US$1497.90/oz. Gold up by 1.187% at US$1516.63/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1494-1460 with risk below 1460, targeting 1509-1520 and 1532-1539. Sell below 1509-1539 keeping stop loss closing above 1539, targeting 1500-1489-1480 and 1469-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,509-1,500
S2     1,489
S3     1,480-1,474
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,520
R2     1,532-1,539
R3     1,545

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.965

Buy
20-DMA   1513.77 Sell
50-DMA  

1483.50

Buy
100-DMA   1411.46 Buy
200-DMA   1352.31 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.123 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   1.846 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.97/oz and low of US$17.73/oz. Silver settled up by 1.136% at US$17.97/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.90-15.60 targeting 18.05-18.50-18.90 and 19.20-19.65; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 18.05-19.65 with stop loss above 19.65; targeting 17.90-17.50-16.90 and 16.70-16.00.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.90-17.50
S2     17.00
S3     16.70-16.10

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.05-18.50
R2     18.90
R3     19.20-19.65

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.718 Buy
20-DMA   18.18 Buy
50-DMA   17.23 Buy
100-DMA   16.06 Buy
200-DMA   15.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.245 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$59.15/bbl, intraday low of US$57.85/bbl and settled up by 0.510% to close at US$58.28/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.20-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.00-60.20-60.90 and 61.60-62.40-63.10. Sell below 59.00-62.40 with stop loss at 62.40; targeting 58.20-57.60-56.90 and 56.00-55.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.20-57.60
S2     56.75
S3     56.00-55.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-60.20
R2     60.90
R3     61.60-62.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.413 Sell
20-DMA   56.12 Buy
50-DMA   56.06 Buy
100-DMA   57.00 Buy
200-DMA   56.46 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   62.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.753 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Thursday made an intraday low of US$1.0995/EUR, high of US$1.1066/EUR and settled the day down by 0.201% to close at US$1.1017/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1000-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1250 targeting 1.1030-1.1000-1.0940 and 1.0910-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1000
S2     1.0940
S3     1.0910-1.0860

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030--1.1090
R2     1.1130
R3     1.1180-1.1250

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   44.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1036 Sell
50-DMA   1.1108 Sell
100-DMA   1.1174 Sell
200-DMA   1.1250 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2458/GBP, high of US$1.2581/GBP and settled the day down by 0.375% to close at US$1.2473/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2505-1.2710 with targets at 1.2440-1.2400 and 1.2350-1.2310-1.2250 stop-loss should be below 1.2710. Buy above 1.2440-1.2300 with targets 1.2505-1.2570-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2710 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2440
S2     1.2400
S3     1.2350-1.2310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2505-1.2570
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.863

Buy
20-DMA   1.2313 Buy
50-DMA   1.2273 Buy
100-DMA   1.2486 Sell
200-DMA   1.2734 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.51/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.08/USD and settled the day down by 0.402% at JPY107.55/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-110.00 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.60-107.00 and 106.50-106.10-105.80. Long positions above 107.60-105.00 with targets of 108.00-108.50-108.90 and 109.55-110.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.00-108.50
R2     108.90
R3     109.55-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.821 Buy
20-DMA   107.09 Sell
50-DMA   107.09 Sell
100-DMA   107.93 Buy
200-DMA   109.31 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   53.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.359 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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