AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • The Federal Reserve has delivered a boost to the economy this year not only with interest-rate cuts but also because it shifted away from its earlier view that it would need to raise rates in 2019, two Fed policymakers said on Monday. But despite ongoing headwinds, including weaker global growth, ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks like a possibly messy British exit from the European Union, only one policymaker - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard - suggested that further policy easing is in the cards. Bullard, who has focused on the fact that some short-term Treasury debt yields have risen above long-term bond yields in what is sometimes seen as a sign of coming recession, noted that for now the bond “yield curve” looks more normal. But that is “likely because markets are anticipating future policy moves” by the Fed, Bullard told the Effingham County Chamber of Commerce. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who spoke at a separate event a few hours later in Salem, Oregon, acknowledged that the Fed’s policy easing has only “partially” offset the various drags on the economy. But she gave no hint about whether she will support more rate cuts to deliver a fuller offset. When interest rates fall, households can refinance their mortgages, she said, and use the savings to buy things they otherwise might not purchase. Such consumer spending can “partially offset” slowdowns in other parts of the economy where businesses “hunker down” trade and other uncertainty, she said. The Fed lowered its target rate to a range of between 1.75% and 2.00% at its last meeting, its second quarter-point rate cut this year. Top officials say they will now make decisions on a “meeting by meeting” basis, with no clear commitment to further reductions. Daly does not have a vote on policy this year. Bullard does, and last week used it to dissent because he felt a bigger, half-point rate cut was warranted. Investments in contracts tied to the Fed’s target policy rate show investors expect one more quarter-point reduction by the end of the year.
  • The Japanese yen was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia. Developments on the U.S.-Japan trade front were in focus after reports suggested that the negotiations might have hit a last-minute snag. Citing people familiar with the talks, Reuters reported that the two nations are still hoping to sign a trade deal this week. However, the deal might be “limited” and is not expected to include changes to tariffs governing autos, the biggest source of the $67.6 billion U.S. trade deficit with Japan, Reuters said. On the data front, Japan’s Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to a seasonally adjusted 48.9 from a final 49.3 in the previous month, marking the quickest pace of deterioration since February. The Manufacturing activity in Germany fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis this month, data from IHS Markit showed. Germany’s services sector also grew at its slowest pace in nine months. The central bank said in a statement that the country’s financial risks are generally under control and that the current interest rate levels are appropriate. Incoming European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the Sino-U.S. trade war is weighing like a “big, dark cloud” on global economy. Concerns that the tension between China and the U.S. might have escalated once again intensified over the weekend after the U.S. requested China to cancel a planned visit to U.S. farming regions over the weekend.
  • The euro nursed losses on Tuesday after weak readings on German manufacturing rattled confidence, while the dollar found broad support as investors looked for signs of progress from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations. EUR shed 0.2% overnight after a survey showed European business activity stalling, and in fact going backwards in powerhouse Germany where a manufacturing recession deepened. The court will rule on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully when he suspended parliament just weeks before Brexit, with the case's outcome potentially complicating his plans to lead his country out of the European Union next month The Bank of Japan's governor Haruhiko Kuroda is also due to speak today, around 0530 GMT Meanwhile a delicate upbeat mood broadly held, with Chinese importers' decision to buy 10 boatloads of U.S. soybeans seen as a positive sign leading in to trade negotiations next month.
  • Oil prices were down on Tuesday in Asia following the release of weak economic data from Japan and Europe, sparking concerns of a gloomy outlook for oil demand. Japan’s Jibun Bank Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index slipped to a seasonally adjusted 48.9 from a final 49.3 in the previous month, marking the quickest pace of deterioration since February. Manufacturing activity in Germany also fell to its lowest level since the financial crisis this month, data from IHS Markit showed. Germany’s services sector also grew at its slowest pace in nine months The weaker-than-expected data caused concerns that demand for oil might be affected. Incoming European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned today that the Sino-U.S. trade war is weighing on global economy “like a big, dark cloud.” Also weighing on oil prices today were comments Saudi officials that the kingdom has already restored around 75% of output from the Abqaiq crude processing facility. Citing the official, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia said it expected to restore the plant to full production as soon as next week. The production was attacked on the Sept 14.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th September 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,520 1,532-1,539 1,545
Silver-XAG 18.90-19.20 19.65 20.05-20.70
Crude Oil 59.00-60.20 60.90 61.60-62.40
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2505-1.2570 1.2600 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 108.00-108.50 108.90 109.55-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th September 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,509-1,500 1,489 1,480-1,474
Silver-XAG 18.50-18.05 17.90 17.50-17.00
Crude Oil 58.20-57.60 56.75 56.00-55.40
EURO/USD 1.0940 1.0910-1.0860 1.0800
GBP/USD 1.2440 1.2400 1.2350-1.2310
USD/JPY 107.50 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (24th September 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1526.75/oz and low of US$1526.75/oz. Gold up by 0.541% at US$1521.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1509-1460 with risk below 1460, targeting 1520-1532 and 1539-1545. Sell below 1520-1545 keeping stop loss closing above 1539, targeting 1509-1500-1489 and 1480- 1469.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,509-1,500
S2     1,489
S3     1,480-1,474
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,520
R2     1,532-1,539
R3     1,545

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

56.965

Buy
20-DMA   1512.99 Sell
50-DMA  

1488.20

Buy
100-DMA   1416.64 Buy
200-DMA   1355.24 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.123 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   4.734 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$18.69/oz and low of US$17.86/oz. Silver settled up by 3.928% at US$18.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 18.50-16.60 targeting 18.90-19.20-19.65 and 20.05-20.70; stop breakage below 16.60. Sell below 18.90-20.70 with stop loss above 20.65; targeting 18.50-18.05-17.90 and 17.50-16.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.50-18.05
S2     17.90
S3     17.50-17.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.90-19.20
R2     19.65
R3     20.05-20.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.718 Buy
20-DMA   18.18 Buy
50-DMA   17.23 Buy
100-DMA   16.06 Buy
200-DMA   15.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.245 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$59.16/bbl, intraday low of US$57.30/bbl and settled up by 1.226% to close at US$58.38/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 58.20-56.00 with risk daily closing below 56.00 and targeting 59.00-60.20-60.90 and 61.60-62.40-63.10. Sell below 59.00-62.40 with stop loss at 62.40; targeting 58.20-57.60-56.90 and 56.00-55.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     58.20-57.60
S2     56.75
S3     56.00-55.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     59.00-60.20
R2     60.90
R3     61.60-62.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.413 Sell
20-DMA   56.84 Buy
50-DMA   55.96 Buy
100-DMA   56.84 Buy
200-DMA   56.58 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   21.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.753 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0965/EUR, high of US$1.1024/EUR and settled the day down by 0.009% to close at US$1.0092/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1000-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1250 targeting 1.1030-1.1000-1.0940 and 1.0910-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0940
S2     1.0910-1.0860
S3     1.0800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1036 Sell
50-DMA   1.1108 Sell
100-DMA   1.1174 Sell
200-DMA   1.1250 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2458/GBP, high of US$1.2489/GBP and settled the day down by 0.375% to close at US$1.2427/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2505-1.2710 with targets at 1.2440-1.2400 and 1.2350-1.2310-1.2250 stop-loss should be below 1.2710. Buy above 1.2440-1.2300 with targets 1.2505-1.2570-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2710 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2440
S2     1.2400
S3     1.2350-1.2310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2505-1.2570
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.863

Buy
20-DMA   1.2313 Buy
50-DMA   1.2273 Buy
100-DMA   1.2486 Sell
200-DMA   1.2734 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.30/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.76/USD and settled the day down by 0.153% at JPY107.52/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.00-110.00 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.60-107.00 and 106.50-106.10-105.80. Long positions above 107.60-105.00 with targets of 108.00-108.50-108.90 and 109.55-110.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.50
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.00-108.50
R2     108.90
R3     109.55-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.821 Buy
20-DMA   107.09 Sell
50-DMA   107.09 Sell
100-DMA   107.93 Buy
200-DMA   109.31 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   53.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.359 Buy

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