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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks fell the most in three weeks on Wednesday after U.S. lawmakers called for an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, increasing the prospects of prolonged political uncertainty in the world’s largest economy. The dramatic move by Democrats in the House of Representatives compounded investors’ anxieties with confidence already shaken by U.S.-China trade tensions and global recession risks. Chinese shares slumped and the offshore yuan fell, while oil futures extended declines after Trump harshly criticized Beijing’s trade practices in a speech at the United Nations, damping hopes for a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war. Sterling fell against the dollar, giving up some of its overnight gains, as persistent uncertainty over how Britain will complete its divorce from the European Union dogged the pound. On Tuesday, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Boris Johnson’s decision to shut down parliament in the run-up to Brexit was unlawful, a stinging judgment that undermined the prime minister’s already fragile grip on power. The push for an impeachment inquiry and disappointing U.S. economic data weighed on Wall Street on Tuesday, driving the S&P 500 0.84% lower, its biggest daily decline in a month. The U.S. House of Representatives will launch a formal impeachment inquiry over whether Trump sought help from the Ukraine to smear former Vice President Joe Biden, a front-runner for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Trump has denied the claims. It is unlikely that the impeachment inquiry would lead to Trump’s removal from office. Even if the Democratic-controlled House voted to impeach Trump, the Republican-majority Senate would have to take the next step of removing him from office after a trial. However, the development injects fresh uncertainty into financial markets, which have already been roiled by political disquiet in Hong Kong to Britain to Italy and the Middle East.
  • The dollar steadied in Asian trade on Wednesday but remained on the defensive after the launch of a formal impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump, while the political uncertainty added to worries about economies strained by the Sino-U.S. trade row. Following reports Trump sought foreign help to smear Democratic presidential front-runner Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the House would initiate a formal inquiry, saying Trump appeared to have undermined national security and violated the U.S. Constitution. The dollar bounced slightly in Asia after falling in U.S. trade overnight following Pelosi's move, which was announced late on Tuesday. Trump promised on Tuesday to release a transcript of his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy amid reports he withheld nearly $400 million in U.S. aid to Ukraine as leverage to get Zelenskiy to launch a probe that would damage Biden. Although it is far from certain whether the inquiry will eventually lead to an impeachment, which needs a two-thirds majority in the Republican-controled Senate, increased political uncertainty is seen as negative for the dollar. Some market players also suspect domestic political fights will consume Trump's political capital, making it harder for him to strike any compromise with China on trade and other issues. On Tuesday, Trump's rhetoric on China turned harsh once again as he delivered a stinging rebuke to Beijing's trade practices at the United Nations General Assembly, saying he would not accept a "bad deal" in U.S.-China trade negotiations China's top diplomat Wang Yi quickly hit back, saying Beijing would not be threatened on trade or allow interference in its affairs, including Hong Kong, while having no intention to "play the Game of Thrones on the world stage". The dollar was also undermined by data showing U.S. consumer confidence fell by the most in nine months in September, far more than expected. Elsewhere, the British pound found some support after the UK Supreme Court ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's decision to suspend parliament for five weeks was unlawful in a further blow to his ambition to pull Britain out of European Union next month with or without a deal. Still, market players saw no signs of a sustainable rebound as the events further deepened the uncertainty investors now attach to the currency.
  • Oil prices fell on Wednesday for a second day on worries that fuel demand could fall after U.S. President Donald Trump doused recent optimism over China-U.S. trade talks and reignited concerns about global economic growth. Both benchmarks have fallen to their lowest level since before the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities on Sept. 14. Trump criticized China's trade practices at the United National General Assembly on Tuesday and said he would not accept a "bad deal" in U.S.-China trade negotiations. China is the world's largest oil importer and second-largest crude user. The United States is the largest consumer of oil. Trump also said he saw a path to peace with Iran even as he denounced Iran for "bloodlust", cooling other risk premiums built into oil prices. Oil rallied last week following a crippling attack on Saudi Arabia's oil installations that has disrupted supplies from the world's top exporter. To meet its supply obligations to Saudi refineries overseas, Saudi Aramco is buying oil from other Middle East producers. Saudi's crude oil stockpiles could run out within two months, and that could prompt buyers to look for supplies in the spot market and push prices higher again, Lee said. Prices were also weighed down by an unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories last week. U.S. crude inventories rose 1.4 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday, compared with analysts' forecasts of a 200,000-barrel drawdown. Official government data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will be released later today.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
25th September 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1532-1,539 1,545 1,556
Silver-XAG 18.90-19.20 19.65 20.05-20.70
Crude Oil 57.00-57.60 58.20 59.00-60.20
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2505-1.2570 1.2600 1.2650-1.2700
USD/JPY 107.50-108.00 108.50 108.90-109.55

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
25th September 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,520-1,509 1,500 1,489-1,480
Silver-XAG 18.50-18.05 17.90 17.50-17.00
Crude Oil 56.60 56.00-55.40 54.50
EURO/USD 1.0960 1.0910-1.0860 1.0800
GBP/USD 1.2440 1.2400 1.2350-1.2310
USD/JPY 107.00 106.50-106.10 105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (25th September 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1535.63/oz and low of US$1515.56/oz. Gold up by 0.657% at US$1532.05/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1520-1480 with risk below 1480, targeting 1532-1539 and 1545-1550. Sell below 1532-1556 keeping stop loss closing above 1556, targeting 1520-1509-1500 and 1489-1480.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,520-1,509
S2     1,500
S3     1,489-1,480
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1532-1,539
R2     1,545
R3     1,556

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.965

Buy
20-DMA   1513.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1490.50

Buy
100-DMA   1419.24 Buy
200-DMA   1356.75 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   89.123 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   6.734 Buy

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$18.72/oz and low of US$18.23/oz. Silver settled up by 0.096% at US$18.58/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral region and giving positive crossover to show upside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 18.50-16.60 targeting 18.90-19.20-19.65 and 20.05-20.70; stop breakage below 16.60. Sell below 18.90-20.70 with stop loss above 20.65; targeting 18.50-18.05-17.90 and 17.50-16.90.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     18.50-18.05
S2     17.90
S3     17.50-17.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     18.90-19.20
R2     19.65
R3     20.05-20.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.718 Buy
20-DMA   18.18 Buy
50-DMA   17.23 Buy
100-DMA   16.06 Buy
200-DMA   15.69 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.246 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.245 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$58.41/bbl, intraday low of US$56.60/bbl and settled down by 2.831% to close at US$56.71/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.00-54.50 with risk daily closing below 54.50 and targeting 57.00-57.60-58.20 and 59.00-60.20-60.90. Sell below 57.00-60.40 with stop loss at 60.40; targeting 56.60-56.00 and 55.40-54.50.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.60
S2     56.00-55.40
S3     54.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     57.00-57.60
R2     58.20
R3     59.00-60.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.413 Sell
20-DMA   56.81 Buy
50-DMA   55.93 Buy
100-DMA   56.77 Buy
200-DMA   56.60 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.555 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1023/EUR, high of US$1.1023/EUR and settled the day up by 0.244% to close at US$1.1018/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.10960-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1250 targeting 1.1030-1.1000-1.0940 and 1.0910-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0960
S2     1.0910-1.0860
S3     1.0800

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1036 Sell
50-DMA   1.1108 Sell
100-DMA   1.1174 Sell
200-DMA   1.1250 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   45.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2413/GBP, high of US$1.2502/GBP and settled the day up by 0.482% to close at US$1.2498/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2505-1.2710 with targets at 1.2440-1.2400 and 1.2350-1.2310-1.2250 stop-loss should be below 1.2710. Buy above 1.2440-1.2300 with targets 1.2505-1.2570-1.2600 and 1.2650-1.2710 with stop loss closing below 1.2300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2440
S2     1.2400
S3     1.2350-1.2310

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2505-1.2570
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2700

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.863

Buy
20-DMA   1.2348 Buy
50-DMA   1.2273 Buy
100-DMA   1.2468 Sell
200-DMA   1.2732 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   33.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.95/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.79/USD and settled the day down by 0.445% at JPY107.04/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.50-109.55 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.50-105.00 with targets of 108.00-108.50-108.90 and 109.55-110.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00
S2     106.50-106.10
S3     105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.50-108.00
R2     108.50
R3     108.90-109.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.821 Buy
20-DMA   107.29 Sell
50-DMA   107.04 Sell
100-DMA   107.84 Buy
200-DMA   109.22 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   16.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.223 Buy

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