AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian share prices ticked up on Tuesday as some investors clung to hopes the fourth quarter will bring progress in resolving the United-States trade war that’s cast a shadow over the global economy. Starting on Tuesday, Chinese markets are shut for a week to mark 70 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro dismissed reports that the Trump administration was considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges as “fake news”, giving short-term players an excuse to buy back risk assets While the tussle over trade and technology between the world’s two largest economies has intensified, some investors are sticking to hopes of a compromise They say a tentative deal could be reached by the end of this year, given that President Donald Trump’s administration would strive to avoid the U.S. economy falling into a recession in an election year. The Japanese currency showed no reaction to the Bank of Japan’s tankan survey showing business confidence at big Japanese manufacturers worsened in the three months to September to its lowest level in six years. The U.S. dollar traded near its highest in almost two weeks versus the yen before the release of data that is forecast to show the U.S. manufacturing sector returned to growth, which would ease concern about the impact of the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war. The euro teetered near its lowest in more than two years versus the greenback as weak economic data from Germany reinforced expectations that monetary policy in the euro zone will remain accommodative for an extended period. A host of economic data and comments from central bankers this week will set the tone for major currencies as traders try to determine how far policymakers go to bolster growth. The yen remained weak after the Bank of Japan's tankan showed business confidence in the third quarter slid to its lowest in six years. Trading could be subdued in Asian time because China's financial markets are closed until Monday for public holidays. The Institute for Supply Management's measure of U.S. manufacturing activity due later on Tuesday is forecast to show a return to expansion in September, but just barely. In August U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in three years due to the U.S.-China trade war. Several Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, but traders said they will focus most on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for hints about the direction of U.S. monetary policy. The Fed has cut interest rates twice this year, but there are signs that the Fed is reluctant to ease policy further because the jobs market remains strong. Annual inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, slowed to the lowest in almost three years, data on Monday showed. The European Central Bank unleashed a new round of monetary easing measures on Sept. 12, but there is growing concern that the central bank is reaching the limits of what it can achieve and the burden will fall to eurozone governments to boost fiscal spending.
  • The U.S. dollar was resplendent overnight as quarter-end rebalancing flows saw the greenback charge higher against its G-10 counterparts. The rally also left energy and precious metals flailing in its wake. Although Chicago PMI fell to a lower than expected 47.1, it was balanced out by a rise in the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index of 1.5; lower than the previous month, but much better than forecast. Short of a U.S.-China trade deal magically appearing out of nowhere in the next few weeks, causing a stampede by global investors into emerging markets, it is hard to make a bearish case on the dollar for the remainder of 2019. Japan continues to defy the sceptics, a state of affairs that has existed for the last 25 years I might add, with the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index printing an above expectation five versus two forecast. Although the Tankan shows that Japan is not tanking yet, there are warning signs, with the Large Manufacturing Outlook plunging to two from seven previously. The outlook is unsurprising as the U.S. and China trade war drags on, and Japan engages in its own tête-à-tête with South Korea. However, neither Asia’s 2nd or 3rd largest economies are out for the count yet, so cheer up people. Readers should expect increasing volatility on GBP and U.K. stocks as we enter the business end of the season with Brexit. `The possible permutations remain more complex than my wife choosing what to wear to work each morning. (a quantum computer would struggle with that one) With complexity comes uncertainty, with uncertainty, comes volatility. I will leave it to readers to decide whether I am writing about Brexit, the GBP, the U.K government, or married life.Johnson said on Sunday he would not quit as Britain’s prime minister even if he fails to secure a deal to leave the European Union, insisting only his Conservative government can deliver Brexit on Oct. 31.
  • Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday on reports that production at the world's largest oil producers fell during the third quarter, although a resumption in Saudi supply and demand concerns continued to keep a lid on prices. Front-month prices for both contracts posted their largest quarterly falls this year on Monday, hurt by a slowdown in global economic growth amid the U.S.-China trade war. Saudi Aramco has restored full oil production and capacity to the levels they were at before attacks on its facilities on Sept. 14, the head of its trading arm said on Monday. Saudi Arabia pumped about 9.78 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. Still, OPEC's output fell to the lowest in eight years in September at 28.9 million bpd, down 750,000 bpd from August's revised figure and the lowest monthly total since 2011, a separate Reuters survey found. Output at the world's two largest producers, the United States and Russia, also fell in July and September, respectively. Russia's output declined to 11.24 million bpd in Sept. 1-29, down from 11.29 million bpd in the previous month, sources said, although it is still above the quotas set in an output deal between Russia and OPEC. U.S. crude oil output fell 276,000 bpd in July to 11.81 million bpd as federal offshore Gulf of Mexico production slid, according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration monthly report released on Monday. U.S. production peaked at 12.12 million bpd in April. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose 1.1 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks probably slipped, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
1st October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,470-1,478 1,489 1,500-1,509
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.80 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 54.95-55.40 55.90 56.60-57.00
EURO/USD 1.0960-1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2350 1.2400 1.2440-1.2505
USD/JPY 108.50 108.90-109.55 110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
1st October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,466-1,460 1,453 1,446-1,435
Silver-XAG 16.90 16.25-16.00 15.70
Crude Oil 54.25-53.90 53.30 52.70-52.10
EURO/USD 1.0880-1.0860 1.0805 1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2260 1.2205 1.2165-1.2100
USD/JPY 107.80-107.00 106.50 106.10-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (1st October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1500.47/oz and low of US$1464.45/oz. Gold down by 0.497% at US$1472.39/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1460-1435 with risk below 1435, targeting 14741500-1509-1520 and 1532-1539-1550. Sell below 1470-1509 keeping stop loss closing above 1509, targeting 466-1460-1454 and 1446-1435.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,466-1,460
S2     1,453
S3     1,446-1,435
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,470-1,478
R2     1,489
R3     1,500-1,509

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

38.806

Buy
20-DMA   1502.61 Sell
50-DMA  

1494.53

Sell
100-DMA   1426.73 Buy
200-DMA   1361.34 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   11.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.132 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.59/oz and low of US$16.91/oz. Silver settled down by 2.960% at US$16.98/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-15.70 targeting 17.00-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.00-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.90
S2     16.25-16.00
S3     15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.80
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.97 Buy
50-DMA   17.48 Buy
100-DMA   16.26 Buy
200-DMA   15.80 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   7.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.052 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$56.31/bbl, intraday low of US$53.92/bbl and settled down by 3.891% to close at US$54.09/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 54.25-52.10 with risk daily closing below 53.90 and targeting 54.95-55.40-55.90 and 56.60-57.00. Sell below 55.00-57.40 with stop loss at 60.40; targeting 54.25-53.90-53.30 and 52.70-52.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     54.25-53.90
S2     53.30
S3     52.70-52.10

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.95-55.40
R2     55.90
R3     56.60-57.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   42.773 Sell
20-DMA   56.86 Buy
50-DMA   55.85 Buy
100-DMA   56.52 Buy
200-DMA   56.76 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   17.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.123 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0884/EUR, high of US$1.0947/EUR and settled the day down by 0.410% to close at US$1.0897/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0960-1.0815 with risk below 1.0815, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1250 targeting 1.1030-1.1000-1.0940 and 1.0910-1.0860 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0880-1.0860
S2     1.0805
S3     1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0960-1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1004 Sell
50-DMA   1.1069 Sell
100-DMA   1.1156 Sell
200-DMA   1.1235 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   13.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0026 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2274/GBP, high of US$1.2345/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0366% to close at US$1.2289/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2310-1.2510 with targets at 1.2260-1.2205 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be below 1.2510. Buy above 1.2260-1.2100 with targets 1.2310-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2440-1.2505-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2260
S2     1.2205
S3     1.2165-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2350
R2     1.2400
R3     1.2440-1.2505

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.721

Buy
20-DMA   1.2366 Buy
50-DMA   1.2258 Buy
100-DMA   1.2446 Sell
200-DMA   1.2726 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY107.73/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.17/USD and settled the day up by 0.118% at JPY108.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-109.55 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.50-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.50-105.00 with targets of 108.00-108.50-108.90 and 109.55-110.00 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.80-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.10-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     108.90-109.55
R3     110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.821 Buy
20-DMA   107.67 Sell
50-DMA   107.07 Sell
100-DMA   107.78 Buy
200-DMA   109.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   87.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.292 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING