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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks tumbled to a one-month low on Thursday as already-growing market fears about global growth were fanned by the United State announcement of new import tariffs on products from the European Union. U.S. stock futures ESc1 were up 0.22%, but this did little to bolster sentiment after shares on Wall Street suffered their sharpest one-day decline in nearly six weeks on Wednesday, when the three major New York share indexes all lost more than 1.5%. Yields on two-year U.S. Treasury yields fell as weakening data on manufacturing and the jobs market suggested the trade war with China has damaged the U.S. economy. The U.S.-China trade war has cast a shadow over global growth prospects and on Wednesday there was an escalation of the trade dispute between Washington and the EU as President Donald Trump’s administration announced it would impose tariffs on $7.5 billion of goods. EU manufacturers are already facing U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum and a threat from Trump to penalize EU cars and car parts. The tariffs announced Wednesday were approved by the World Trade Organization but could still cause friction across the Atlantic. The chance that Europe will respond in kind will fuel worries there could be prolonged damage to global growth.
  • The U.S. dollar was near flat on Thursday in Asia following the release of weak employment data. Citing Joseph Song, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)., Bloomberg said U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell now faces new pressure to make a third-straight rate reduction following the recent release of weaker-than-expected U.S. data. The ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) Research Institute on Wednesday showed hiring at U.S. companies cooled in September amid tariffs and the U.S.-China trade war. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index also slipped to 47.8 during the month, the lowest since June 2009. U.S. President Donald Trump again attacked the Fed for not doing enough to support the economy. Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his final offer to the European Union and stated that unless the bloc was willing to compromise, the U.K. would leave the EU without a deal. The U.S. dollar was near flat on Thursday in Asia following the release of weak employment data. Citing Joseph Song, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC)., Bloomberg said U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell now faces new pressure to make a third-straight rate reduction following the recent release of weaker-than-expected U.S. data. The ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) Research Institute on Wednesday showed hiring at U.S. companies cooled in September amid tariffs and the U.S.-China trade war. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index also slipped to 47.8 during the month, the lowest since June 2009. U.S. President Donald Trump again attacked the Fed for not doing enough to support the economy. The GBP/USD pair was little changed at 1.2301. On Wednesday, the U.K. government published its Brexit proposals, which included plans to replace the Irish backstop. Prime Minister Boris Johnson made his final offer to the European Union and stated that unless the bloc was willing to compromise, the U.K. would leave the EU without a deal. The EUR/USD pair was little impacted by the U.S. announcement that it is imposing more tariffs on European goods. Washington said overnight that it would slap a 10% tariff on European-made Airbus planes and 25% duties on French wine, Scotch and Irish whiskies and cheese from across the continent.
  • Oil prices steadied on Thursday in Asia despite reports that showed U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected last week. U.S. oil inventories showed a gain of 3.1 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported overnight, more than the market was anticipating, which pressured oil prices Analysts were expecting a rise of about 1.57 million barrels of crude for the week ended Sept. 27, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. The EIA said gasoline inventories for the week fell by about 230,000 barrels, confounding forecasts for a build of about 450,000 barrels. Distillate stockpiles dropped by about 2.4 million barrels. Analysts had been looking for a decline of about 1.8 million barrels. Oil prices initially were sent lower following the EIA report, but later reversed losses amid modest hopes for progress in resolving the Sino-U.S. trade war. Officials from the two sides will resume trade talks next week in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier that a trade might come “earlier than you thought” after China agreed to mass purchase U.S. farm products. The U.S. and China are the world’s biggest oil importers. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to hike its prices for all crude grades it sells to Asia in November after an attack on its oil facilities led to a spike in Middle East benchmarks last month, industry sources said. The official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude in November is expected to rise by at least 50 cents a barrel from the previous month to the highest since July, a Reuters survey of sources at five Asian refineries showed.The strike against key Saudi oil processing facilities on Sept. 14 caused the kingdom's output of Arab Light and Arab Extra Light to fall by half or 5.7 million barrels per day. The disruption forced state oil company Saudi Aramco to draw down inventories, switch grades, delay loadings and cut domestic refinery throughput to meet supply commitments to customers.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
3rd October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,509 1,520 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.80 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 52.70-53.30 53.90 54.95-55.40
EURO/USD 1.0960-1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2350 1.2400 1.2440-1.2505
USD/JPY 107.80-108.50 108.90 109.55-110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
3rd October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,489-1,478 1,470 1,466-1,460
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 52.10-51.90 51.00 50.40
EURO/USD 1.0900-1.0860 1.0805 1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2260 1.2205 1.2165-1.2100
USD/JPY 107.00 106.10-105.50 106.10-105.50

Intra-Day Strategy (3rd October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1505.02/oz and low of US$1474.47/oz. Gold up by 1.408% at US$1499.75/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1489-1460 with risk below 1460, targeting 1500-1509-1520 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1500-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1489-1474-1466 and 1460-1454.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,489-1,478
S2     1,470
S3     1,466-1,460
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,500-1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

49.806

Buy
20-DMA   1499.61 Sell
50-DMA  

1497.95

Sell
100-DMA   1431.01 Buy
200-DMA   1363.77 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   56.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.739 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.31/oz and low of US$16.88/oz. Silver settled up by 1.479% at US$17.21/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-15.70 targeting 17.00-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.00-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.80
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.26 Buy
50-DMA   17.78 Buy
100-DMA   16.85 Buy
200-DMA   15.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.052 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$54.31/bbl, intraday low of US$52.07/bbl and settled down by 2.86% to close at US$52.32/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.10-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 52.70-53.30-53.90 and 54.95-55.40-55.9. Sell below 52.70-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 52.10-51.90 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.10-51.90
S2     51.00
S3     50.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.70-53.30
R2     53.90
R3     54.95-55.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   37.864 Sell
20-DMA   56.48 Buy
50-DMA   55.70 Buy
100-DMA   56.30 Buy
200-DMA   56.84 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   12.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.662 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0962/EUR, high of US$1.0962/EUR and settled the day up by 0.249% to close at US$1.0958/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0900-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.0960-1.1200 targeting 1.0910-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0900-1.0860
S2     1.0805
S3     1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.0960-1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   34.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1009 Sell
50-DMA   1.1066 Sell
100-DMA   1.1154 Sell
200-DMA   1.1233 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   31.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0041 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2225/GBP, high of US$1.2323/GBP and settled the day up by 0.004% to close at US$1.2298/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2310-1.2510 with targets at 1.2260-1.2205 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be below 1.2510. Buy above 1.2260-1.2100 with targets 1.2310-1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2440-1.2505-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2260
S2     1.2205
S3     1.2165-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2350
R2     1.2400
R3     1.2440-1.2505

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.721

Buy
20-DMA   1.2366 Buy
50-DMA   1.2258 Buy
100-DMA   1.2446 Sell
200-DMA   1.2726 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   7.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY107.04/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.88/USD and settled the day down by 0.118% at JPY107.16/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00
S2     106.10-105.50
S3     106.10-105.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.80-108.50
R2     108.90
R3     109.55-110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   59.821 Buy
20-DMA   107.67 Sell
50-DMA   107.07 Sell
100-DMA   107.78 Buy
200-DMA   109.15 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   87.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.292 Buy

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