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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares inched up on Tuesday, with Chinese shares making decent gains after a week-long holiday, though investors remained cautious over U.S.-China trade talks after President Donald Trump said a quick deal was unlikely. European shares were expected to follow, with major European stock futures including pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 futures trading up 0.15%-0.2%. South Korea’s Samsung Electronics rose 1.2% after its profit guidance. The semiconductor firm said its third-quarter operating profit likely fell 56% on a downturn in global memory chip prices, but that was better than what analysts had anticipated. Spending on retail goods and dining during China’s National Day holidays returned to growth this year, offering unexpected respite to an economy that has been expanding at its weakest pace in almost three decades. Still a private survey showed China’s services sector grew at its slowest pace in seven months in September. U.S. and Chinese deputy trade negotiators on Monday launched two days of talks aimed at paving the way for the first minister-level negotiations in months on Thursday and Friday. Mere confirmation of the talks from Beijing has helped to improve the mood, or at least triggered text-reading algorithms to react by buying stocks and the yuan, said some market players. But prospects for progress in U.S.-China trade talks dimmed after Washington blacklisted Chinese companies over Beijing’s treatment of predominantly Muslim ethnic minorities. Among those blacklisted, trading in video surveillance company Hikvision was suspended while voice recognition front-runner IFLYTEK Co fell as much as 3.1%. Trump also said he hoped China found a humane and peaceful resolution to political protests in Hong Kong, and warned the situation had the potential to hurt trade talks. The talks are getting underway ahead of a scheduled increase in U.S. tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, to 30% from 25% on Oct. 15. Trump has said the tariff increase will take effect if no progress is made in the negotiations. In the currency market, the Turkish lira steadied after declining more than 2% on Monday over concerns about Ankara’s planned incursion in northern Syria. Trump threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy if Ankara takes a planned military strike in Syria too far even though the U.S. leader himself has opened the door for a Turkish incursion by his decision to withdraw U.S. troop from the area. Sterling traded at $1.2290, capped by concerns that sizeable differences between Britain and the European Union remained for striking a Brexit withdrawal deal. With just 24 days to go before the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU, both sides are positioning themselves to avoid blame for a delay or a disorderly no-deal Brexit.
  • The U.S. dollar was near flat on Tuesday in Asia as investors waited for an outcome from Sino-U.S. trade talks in Washington due later this week. Top-level talks are scheduled to resume on Thursday, when Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meets with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Hopes of a trade deal being reached in the near future are slim, reports said, as China is refusing to make concessions on its industrial policy, such as the extensive subsidies for state-owned enterprises. Tensions between the two sides escalated further after the U.S. placed eight Chinese technology companies on a blacklist because of alleged human-rights violations. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s problems in Washington escalated as he has been ordered by a New York court to turn over eight years of personal and corporate tax returns, according to a report published by the New York Times. The Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. is investigating whether Trump broke New York state law in reimbursing his former lawyer Michael Cohen for payments made to the porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election, the report said Trump is expected to appeal on the ground that sitting presidents are granted immunity from criminal prosecution.
  • Oil prices gained on Tuesday in Asia as traders await the outcome of this week’s high-level U.S.-China trade talks. Vice Premier Liu He, China’s chief trade negotiator, is set to meet with his counterparts on Thursday. There are mixed signals on what the outcome of this meeting would be. Some reports said that senior Chinese officials narrowed the range of topics they’re willing to discuss at the negotiations this week after the Trump administration placed eight Chinese technology companies on a U.S. blacklist. The companies were accused of being implicated in human rights violations against Muslim minorities in Xinjian. Entities on the list are prohibited from doing business with American companies without being granted a U.S. government license, according to reports However, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Chinese actions ahead of the trade talks been encouraging. He said the Trump administration remained optimistic of striking a deal at the talks that are resuming after being stalled in May. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by overnight gains in industrial commodities, while unrest in oil-producing countries Iraq and Ecuador raised concerns of supply disruption, adding to support. Investors are treading cautiously before U.S.-China trade discussions that will take place in Washington on Thursday, although expectations are low for a comprehensive deal that will end a trade war between the world's top economies. Protests in Iraq and Ecuador over poor economic conditions are threatening to disrupt output from the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the United States, crude inventories probably grew for a fourth straight week while distillates and gasoline stocks likely fell last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Separately, Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, has joined the ranks of swing producers as it could increase production fairly quickly by 0.3-0.5 million barrels per day, or 0.3-0.5% of global supply, if Saudi Arabia's production problems were to last longer than expected, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters. Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, has resumed production after an attack on its facilities on Sept. 14 cut its output by half.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
8th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,509 1,520 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.80 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 53.30 53.90 54.95-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2310-1.2350 1.2400 1.2440-1.2505
USD/JPY 107.80 108.50 108.90¬-109.55

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
8th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,489 1,478 1,470-1,466
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 52.70-52.10 51.50 51.00-50.40
EURO/USD 1.0950-1.0900 1.0860 1.0805-1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2260 1.2205 1.2165-1.2100
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 106.10 105.50-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (8th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1512.82/oz and low of US$1487.98/oz. Gold down by 1.302% at US$1493.11/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bullish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1500-1466 with risk below 1466, targeting 1509-1520 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1509-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1500-1489-1474 and 1466-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,489
S2     1,478
S3     1,470-1,466
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,500-1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.591

Buy
20-DMA   1500.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1502.35

Sell
100-DMA   1437.66 Buy
200-DMA   1367.13 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   57.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.194 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.63/oz and low of US$17.37/oz. Silver settled down by 0.079% at US$17.40/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-15.70 targeting 17.00-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.00-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.80
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.26 Buy
50-DMA   17.78 Buy
100-DMA   16.85 Buy
200-DMA   15.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.052 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$53.96/bbl, intraday low of US$52.50/bbl and settled up by 0.068% to close at US$52.68/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.70-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 53.30-53.90 and 54.95-55.40-55.9. Sell below 53.30-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 52.70-52.10-51.90 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.70-52.10
S2     51.50
S3     51.00-50.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.30
R2     53.90
R3     54.95-55.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   47.864 Sell
20-DMA   55.79 Buy
50-DMA   55.44 Buy
100-DMA   56.00 Buy
200-DMA   56.95 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.956 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.0961/EUR, high of US$1.0999/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0975% to close at US$1.0969/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0950-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.0960-1.1200 targeting 1.0910-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0950-1.0900
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0805-1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0093 Sell
50-DMA   1.1056 Sell
100-DMA   1.1148 Sell
200-DMA   1.1227 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0041 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2286/GBP, high of US$1.2335/GBP and settled the day down by 0.1884% to close at US$1.2288/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2310-1.2510 with targets at 1.2260-1.2205 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be below 1.2510. Buy above 1.2310-1.2100 with targets 1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2440-1.2505-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2260
S2     1.2205
S3     1.2165-1.2100

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2310-1.2350
R2     1.2400
R3     1.2440-1.2505

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.721

Buy
20-DMA   1.2377 Buy
50-DMA   1.2253 Buy
100-DMA   1.2418 Sell
200-DMA   1.2715 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   54.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY106.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.45/USD and settled the day up by 0.548% at JPY107.23/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-109.55 with risk above 110.00 targeting 106.50-106.10-105.50 and 105.00. Long positions above 106.50-105.00 with targets of 107.00-108.00-108.50 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     106.10
S3     105.50-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.80
R2     108.50
R3     108.90¬-109.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.68 Sell
50-DMA   106.92 Sell
100-DMA   107.63 Buy
200-DMA   109.06 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   38.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0116 Buy

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