AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks fell the most in a week on Wednesday as the United States and China’s broadening dispute over trade and foreign policy showed little sign of coming to an end, weighing on global economic growth. The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled further interest rate cuts and the resumption of bond purchases to address a recent spike in money markets rates. The United States and China are engaged in a year-long row that has slowly expanded beyond trade policy, suggesting even more damage to an already fragile global economy. The U.S. State Department announced the visa restrictions just a day after the U.S. Commerce Department cited the mistreatment of Uighur Muslims in China in its decision to add 20 Chinese public security bureaus and eight companies to a trade blacklist. The U.S. moves cast a pall over U.S.-China trade talks in Washington, where deputy negotiators met for a second day to prepare for the first minister-level meetings in more than two months on Thursday and Frida Washington is also moving ahead with discussions about restrictions on capital flows into China, Bloomberg reported. Tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the United States and China have roiled financial markets and slowed capital investment and trade flows. U.S. President Donald Trump has said tariffs on Chinese imports will rise on Oct. 15 if no progress is made in the negotiations. The Fed’s Powell, in a speech on Tuesday, flagged openness to further rate cuts and said the time to allow the Fed’s asset holdings to begin to expand again “is now upon us.” The U.S. central bank had been shrinking its balance sheet as it unwound crisis-era bond buying programs. Recent volatility in U.S. money markets raised concern the Fed’s balance sheet had become too small, leaving banks with inadequate reserves Powell said balance sheet expansion should not be read as an effort to stimulate the economy, but weak data on the U.S. manufacturing and services sector last week rattled investors’ confidence that the U.S. economy remained robust.
  • The British pound and the U.S. dollar were little changed on Wednesday in Asia. Developments on the Sino-U.S. trade front and Brexit remained in focus. Hopes that a Brexit deal would be struck decreased further after the U.K. government blamed German Chancellor Angela Merkel of making any type of Brexit agreement impossible. According to Bloomberg, Merkel told Prime Minister Boris Johnson that Northern Ireland has to remain part of the customs union in any deal, which Johnson says has paved the way for a no-deal Brexit. A report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank concluded on Tuesday that the budget deficit could rise to 4% of gross domestic product if the U.K. leaves the European Union without a transitional agreement. Sino-U.S. trade developments also remained in focus. High-level officials are due to meet this Thursday for a new round of trade negotiations. Just days before the meeting begin, the U.S. announced that it blacklisted eight Chinese companies for their role in China’s alleged repression of ethnic Uighurs in the western province of Xinjiang. Tensions rose further after China said its state broadcaster will suspend broadcasts of NBA games in response to Commissioner Adam Silver’s defense of a tweet by Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey that expressed support for pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong.
  • Oil prices slipped for a third consecutive session on Wednesday as tensions escalated between the United States and China prior to this week's trade talks, raising uncertainties for global economic growth and oil demand. Negotiators from the world's top two economies will meet in Washington on Thursday and Friday in the latest effort to hammer out a deal aimed at ending a long-running trade dispute that has slowed global economic growth But tensions between the pair rose this week after the United States imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials for the detention or abuse of Muslim minorities, while a row escalated over comments by a leading U.S. National Basketball Association official in support of protests in Hong Kong. The issues have set markets on a risk-aversion course, said Howie Lee, an economist with Singapore's OCBC bank, even though the global oil market remains in a supply deficit that should in theory support prices at above $60 a barrel. The concerns have overshadowed the threat of OPEC-member Ecuador losing a third of its oil supply due to anti-government protests that have seriously affected oil output. Ecuadorean state-run firm Petroamazonas estimates it could lose some 188,000 barrels per day (bpd), or more than a third of its crude production, due to unrest at its facilities. An uprising in Iraq has also entered a second week, threatening output at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' second-largest producer. In the United States, meanwhile, crude stockpiles rose by 4.1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4 to 422 million, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.4 million barrels, a Reuters poll showed. The weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday. The EIA said on Tuesday U.S. crude production is expected to rise by 1.27 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019 to a record 12.26 million bpd, slightly above its previous forecast for a rise of 1.25 million bpd. Output in 2020 is forecast to rise by 910,000 bpd to 13.17 million bpd, it said, below its previous estimate of a rise of 990,000 bpd to 13.23 million bpd.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
9th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,509 1,520 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.80 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 52.70-53.30 53.90 54.95-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2260-1.2310 1.2350 1.2400-1.2440
USD/JPY 107.80 108.50 108.90¬-109.55

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
9th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,489 1,478 1,470-1,466
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 52.10 51.50 51.00-50.40
EURO/USD 1.0950-1.0900 1.0860 1.0805-1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2205 1.2165-1.2100 1.2070
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 106.10 105.50-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (9th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1509.68/oz and low of US$1487.98/oz. Gold down by 0.359% at US$1505.45/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1500-1466 with risk below 1466, targeting 1509-1520 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1509-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1500-1489-1474 and 1466-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,500-1,489
S2     1,478
S3     1,470-1,466
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.591

Buy
20-DMA   1500.98 Sell
50-DMA  

1504.52

Sell
100-DMA   1437.81 Buy
200-DMA   1367.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.194 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.79/oz and low of US$17.25/oz. Silver settled up by 1.613% at US$17.70/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-15.70 targeting 17.00-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.00-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.80
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   56.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.26 Buy
50-DMA   17.78 Buy
100-DMA   16.85 Buy
200-DMA   15.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   83.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.052 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$53.20/bbl, intraday low of US$51.76/bbl and settled down by 0.349% to close at US$52.52/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.10-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 52.70-53.30-53.90 and 54.95-55.40. Sell below 52.70-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 52.10-51.90 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.10
S2     51.50
S3     51.00-50.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.70-53.30
R2     53.90
R3     54.95-55.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.864 Sell
20-DMA   55.59 Buy
50-DMA   55.32 Buy
100-DMA   55.90 Buy
200-DMA   56.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.0538 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.0940/EUR, high of US$1.0995/EUR and settled the day down by 0.120% to close at US$1.0955/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1129), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1180-1.1260. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0950-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.0960-1.1200 targeting 1.0910-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0950-1.0900
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0805-1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0093 Sell
50-DMA   1.1056 Sell
100-DMA   1.1148 Sell
200-DMA   1.1227 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0041 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2194/GBP, high of US$1.2301/GBP and settled the day down by 0.596% to close at US$1.2214/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2310-1.2510 with targets at 1.2260-1.2205 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be below 1.2510. Buy above 1.2310-1.2100 with targets 1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2440-1.2505-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2205
S2     1.2165-1.2100
S3     1.2070

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2260-1.2310
R2     1.2350
R3     1.2400-1.2440

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.721

Buy
20-DMA   1.2366 Buy
50-DMA   1.2252 Buy
100-DMA   1.2412 Sell
200-DMA   1.2712 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.43/USD and settled the day down by 0.16% at JPY107.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-109.55 with risk above 110.00 targeting 106.50-106.10-105.50 and 105.00. Long positions above 106.50-105.00 with targets of 107.00-108.00-108.50 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     106.10
S3     105.50-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.80
R2     108.50
R3     108.90¬-109.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.63 Sell
50-DMA   106.88 Sell
100-DMA   107.59 Buy
200-DMA   109.05 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   47.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0116 Buy

AAFX TRADING
AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING AAFX TRADING