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  • The U.S. dollar slipped as traders digested the latest Sino-U.S. trade news. A speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also received some focus overnight. However, other reports said that top Chinese envoy Liu He would stay in Washington through Friday. The SCMP report contracted with a Bloomberg report published earlier in the day, which said China is willing to accept a trade deal and has even offered to increase the amount of soybeans it purchases from American farmers as a measure of goodwill. Markets also received another boost on news that the U.S. may roll out a previously agreed currency pact with China as part of a partial trade deal. Hopes of a breakthrough had receded dramatically this week as the U.S. has taken a string of punitive measures against China, including putting eight Chinese technology firms on a blacklist. Meanwhile, Powell said this week that the Fed will soon start expanding its balance sheet again.He noted that he hadn’t ruled out another interest rate cut this year, but stressed that the Fed would be data-led. Analysts say that points increasingly to lower U.S. rates sooner rather than later. The yen rose and the yuan fell on Thursday, after a news report said deputy-level trade talks between Chinese and U.S. officials in Washington had failed to make much headway, sending investors scurrying for safety.
  • The South China Morning Post, citing unnamed sources familiar with the discussions, said no progress was made on key issues and China's lead negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, planned leaving Washington a day early. The safe-havens of the yen and Swiss franc each rose as much as 0.3% though some of the gains were soon retraced after CNBC said the White House was unaware of any plans by the Chinese delegation to leave early. The moves offered a preview of what to expect if the talks achieve little or nothing, said Joe Capurso, senior currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. Markets have for weeks gyrated as the likelihood of a breakthrough at the talks has waxed and waned while signs of the toll that the Sino-U.S. trade dispute is taking on the global economy have growth in strength and number. Optimism that some sort of partial agreement between the parties could be reached had rallied risk assets overnight, before the SCMP report quickly unwound most of the hopes. Tensions had flared leading in to the deputy-level discussions after U.S. imposed visa restrictions on Chinese officials and blacklisted some Chinese tech firms it believes are implicated in the poor treatment of Muslim minorities. Surprised and upset by the blacklisting, China lowered expectations for progress from the talks, Chinese government officials told Reuters. The SCMP report cited a source saying the talks had so far skirted some of the thorniest issues, including technology transfers and state subsidies in China. Liu, who is scheduled to meet U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin later on Thursday, no longer plans to remain in the U.S. capital for meetings on Friday, the paper said The Chinese yuan fell as far as 7.1677 per dollar, its weakest since Sept. 4, before recovering in offshore trade. The pound was flat after a rollercoaster overnight session where it leapt on reports of a breakthrough on the Irish backstop and then gave up the gains as hopes of progress on a key sticking point for a Brexit deal were dashed.
  • Oil prices inched down on Thursday in Asia after data showed crude inventories rose more than expected last week. The Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose by about 2.9 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 4. Analysts were expecting a rise of 1.4 million, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. Gasoline inventories sank by 1.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a drop of about 260,000. Distillate stockpiles dropped by about 3.9 million barrels, compared with forecasts for a decline of about 2.1 million. Oil prices were already under pressure earlier in the day after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, published on Wednesday, showed market participants may be anticipating more rate cuts than the central bank deemed necessary to stimulate the economy. So far this year, the Fed has conducted two quarter-point rate cuts back to back in July and September, to try and preserve the U.S. economy's record decade-long growth. Market participants expect the Fed to agree on another quarter point cut when it meets Oct 29-30. Traders also awaited more clarity on the Sino-U.S. trade talks as high-level officials from the two sides resumed trade talks this week. Some reports said Chinese negotiators are not optimistic about reaching a broad agreement that would end the trade war between the two sides, and that the China delegation is planning to leave Washington on Thursday instead of Friday as previously planned. However, other reports suggested that China is still open to a partial deal with the U.S., and even offered more purchases of U.S.-made agricultural products. Oil prices fell on Thursday on concerns of lower fuel demand as talks this week between the United States and China, the world's two largest oil users, are not expected to help end the trade war between them, adding to anxieties about the global economy. China, the world's biggest oil importer, has lowered their expectations for talks on Thursday and Friday to end the 15-month-old trade dispute with the United States. U.S. President Donald Trump is set to raise the tariff rate on about $250 billion of Chinese goods to 30% from 25% on Oct. 15 if some signs of progress are not seen The trade dispute between the world's two largest economies has disrupted global supply chains and slowed the growth of both countries, limiting the growth of their fuel consumption.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
10th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,509 1,520 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 52.70-53.30 53.90 54.95-55.40
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2260-1.2310 1.2350 1.2400-1.2440
USD/JPY 107.80 108.50 108.90¬-109.55

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
10th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,489 1,478 1,470-1,466
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 52.10 51.50 51.00-50.40
EURO/USD 1.0950-1.0900 1.0860 1.0805-1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2205 1.2165-1.2100 1.2070
USD/JPY 107.00-106.50 106.10 105.50-105.00

Intra-Day Strategy (10th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1512.39/oz and low of US$1499.81/oz. Gold down by 0.061% at US$1505.52/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1500-1466 with risk below 1466, targeting 1509-1520 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1509-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1500-1489-1474 and 1466-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,500-1,489
S2     1,478
S3     1,470-1,466
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

51.591

Buy
20-DMA   1500.98 Sell
50-DMA  

1504.52

Sell
100-DMA   1437.81 Buy
200-DMA   1367.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   66.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.194 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.94/oz and low of US$17.65/oz. Silver settled down by 0.124% at US$17.68/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-15.70 targeting 17.00-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.00-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.72 Buy
50-DMA   17.65 Buy
100-DMA   16.48 Buy
200-DMA   15.88 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.035 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$53.67/bbl, intraday low of US$52.28/bbl and settled up by 0.188% to close at US$52.28/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.10-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 52.70-53.30-53.90 and 54.95-55.40. Sell below 52.70-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 52.10-51.90 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     52.10
S2     51.50
S3     51.00-50.40

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     52.70-53.30
R2     53.90
R3     54.95-55.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.864 Sell
20-DMA   55.59 Buy
50-DMA   55.32 Buy
100-DMA   55.90 Buy
200-DMA   56.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   48.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.0538 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.0951/EUR, high of US$1.0989/EUR and settled the day up by 0.140% to close at US$1.0970/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0950-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1200 targeting 1.0960-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0950-1.0900
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0805-1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0982 Sell
50-DMA   1.1048 Sell
100-DMA   1.1142 Sell
200-DMA   1.1220 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0041 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2197/GBP, high of US$1.2290/GBP and settled the day down by 0.0884% to close at US$1.2204/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2310-1.2510 with targets at 1.2260-1.2205 and 1.2165-1.2100 stop-loss should be below 1.2510. Buy above 1.2310-1.2100 with targets 1.2350-1.2400 and 1.2440-1.2505-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2205
S2     1.2165-1.2100
S3     1.2070

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2260-1.2310
R2     1.2350
R3     1.2400-1.2440

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.721

Buy
20-DMA   1.2366 Buy
50-DMA   1.2252 Buy
100-DMA   1.2412 Sell
200-DMA   1.2712 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   17.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY106.79/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.43/USD and settled the day down by 0.16% at JPY107.06/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 107.00-109.55 with risk above 110.00 targeting 106.50-106.10-105.50 and 105.00. Long positions above 106.50-105.00 with targets of 107.00-108.00-108.50 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.00-106.50
S2     106.10
S3     105.50-105.00

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     107.80
R2     108.50
R3     108.90¬-109.55

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.63 Sell
50-DMA   106.88 Sell
100-DMA   107.59 Buy
200-DMA   109.05 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   47.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0116 Buy

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