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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares rose on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would meet with China’s top trade negotiator, stirring hopes for an agreement, while sterling was flat after earlier jumping on optimism over a potential Brexit deal. Investors' renewed appetite for riskier assets continued to weigh on the safe-haven yen JPY= and U.S. Treasury prices, while oil stayed firm on comments about possible supply cuts from the head of OPEC. The bullish market mood came after a first day of trade talks between top U.S. and Chinese negotiators, characterized by Trump as “very, very good.” A White House official said the talks had gone “probably better than expected” and a U.S. Chamber of Commerce official briefed by both sides raised the possibility of a currency agreement this week But while optimism around trade talks helped to drive a “classic risk-on session” overnight, the lack of runaway enthusiasm reflected broader investor caution, said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at GAIN Capital in Singapore. “We know that it’s just a few words from Trump. Further positive developments in trade talks could boost markets on Monday, but low expectations for a deal mean that the lack of an agreement would not “necessarily (be) the end of the world for risk,” he added Analysts at National Australia Bank said freezing tariffs at current levels would be unlikely to reverse the trade-driven slowdown in economic growth. The British pound had jumped nearly 2% on Thursday, its biggest daily gain since March, after Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October after what he called a very positive meeting with his British counterpart, Boris Johnson.
  • The British pound inched up against the U.S. dollar, supported by comments by Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, who said he believes a Brexit deal is likely to be reached. On Thursday, the prime ministers of the U.K. and Ireland released a joint statement saying they saw a potential pathway to a Brexit deal The press release did not provide any further details.Varadkar added that he was “absolutely convinced” a deal could likely be reached by the end of October when the U.K. is expected to leave the European Union Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar steadied after falling overnight on weak CPI data, which raised the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting rates before the end of the year. The core consumer price index rose by just 0.1% from the prior month, according to the Labor Department. The broader CPI was unchanged at 1.7% on an annual basis. On the other hand, jobless numbers released on Thursday showed the unemployed rate remained near a 50-year low of 3.5%, suggesting that the labor market remained strong and complicating the decision from the central bank. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, officials expressed optimism the two sides could be able to ease the trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump said he will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He later in the day and said the first day of trade talks went well. Hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and optimistic comments from Europe on Brexit pushed back the safe-haven yen and lifted the British pound and euro early on Friday. Sterling was the biggest mover overnight, jumping 2% to a two-week high versus the dollar and posting its largest daily percentage gain in seven months on hopes of a Brexit resolution. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said on Thursday a Brexit deal could be clinched by the end of October to allow the United Kingdom to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion, after what he called a very positive meeting with Boris Johnson. Also undermining the dollar, data showed on Thursday U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in September and underlying inflation retreated, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in October. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up a first day of trade talks in more than two months on Thursday, as business groups expressed optimism the two sides might be able to ease a trade war and delay a U.S. tariff hike scheduled for next week U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that his team had a "very, very good negotiation with China," and reiterated his plans to meet with Liu at the White House on Friday.
  • Oil prices gained on Friday in Asia after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated it expected supply from non-OPEC sources to grow slightly less than previously thought. Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow 2.20 million barrels per day, down from 2.25 million in OPEC’s September report. OPEC also trimmed forecasts for global demand growth this year. Also boosting oil late in the day was a New York Times report that the United States and China might be close to announcing a partial trade deal later this week, averting a further escalation in trade tensions. High-level officials from the two sides are currently meeting in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump said overnight that the first day of trade talks were “very, very good.” The president added that he is meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He later in the day. It was previously reported that the Chinese negotiating team might leave Washington earlier than planned due to worsening relationship with the U.S. Earlier this week, the U.S. blacklisted eight Chinese technology firms. But things were looking more optimistic yesterday after some reports suggested that China is open to a partial trade deal and even offer to purchase more U.S.-made agricultural products. On Thursday Mohammad Barkindo, Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said all options were on the table, including a deeper supply cut to balance oil markets. A decision would be taken at a December meeting between the OPEC and its partners, he said. OPEC lowered its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast to 0.98 million barrels per day (bpd), while leaving its 2020 demand growth estimate unchanged at 1.08 million bpd, according to OPEC's monthly report. Beyond OPEC, trade talks between the United States and China also remained on the market's radar as the world's top two economies seek to resolve a more-than-a-year-long trade row that has slowed global economic growth and curbed fuel consumption.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
11th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,509 1,520 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 53.90 54.95-55.30 56.00
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2470-1.2520 1.2600 1.2650-1.2705
USD/JPY 108.50 108.90¬-109.30 110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
11th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,489 1,478 1,470-1,466
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 17.90
Crude Oil 53.30-52.70 52.10 51.50-51.00
EURO/USD 1.0980-1.0930 1.0860 1.0805-1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2440-1.2400 1.2350 1.2310-1.2260
USD/JPY 107.80-107.00 106.50 106.101-05.50

Intra-Day Strategy (11th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Thursday made its intraday high of US$1516.98/oz and low of US$1491.06/oz. Gold down by 0.795% at US$1493.42/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1489fr-1466 with risk below 1466, targeting 1500-1509-1520 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1500-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1489-1474 and 1466-1460.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,489
S2     1,478
S3     1,470-1,466
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,500-1,509
R2     1,520
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

48.591

Buy
20-DMA   1501.98 Sell
50-DMA  

1506.52

Sell
100-DMA   1444.81 Buy
200-DMA   1370.21 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   35.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -1.194 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Thursday made its intraday high of US$17.78/oz and low of US$17.40/oz. Silver settled down by 1.421% at US$17.47/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.90-15.70 targeting 17.00-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.00-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     17.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.72 Buy
50-DMA   17.65 Buy
100-DMA   16.48 Buy
200-DMA   15.88 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   76.246 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.035 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Thursday made an intra‐day high of US$53.90/bbl, intraday low of US$51.33/bbl and settled up by 2.31% to close at US$53.83/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 52.10-50.40 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 52.70-53.30-53.90 and 54.95-55.40. Sell below 52.70-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 52.10-51.90 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.30-52.70
S2     52.10
S3     51.50-51.00

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.90
R2     54.95-55.30
R3     56.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.864 Sell
20-DMA   55.49 Buy
50-DMA   55.28 Buy
100-DMA   55.81 Buy
200-DMA   57.05 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   79.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.901 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Friday made an intraday low of US$1.0968/EUR, high of US$1.1033/EUR and settled the day up by 0.322% to close at US$1.1004/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0950-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1200 targeting 1.0960-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980-1.0930
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0805-1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   52.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0980 Sell
50-DMA   1.1047 Sell
100-DMA   1.1140 Sell
200-DMA   1.1219 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   69.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Thursday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2201/GBP, high of US$1.2268/GBP and settled the day up by 1.900% to close at US$1.2437/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2470-1.2705 with targets at 1.2440-1.2400-1.2350 and 1.2260-1.2205 stop-loss should be below 1.2510. Buy above 1.2440-1.2260 with targets 1.2505-1.2570 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2440-1.2400
S2     1.2350
S3     1.2310-1.2260

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2470-1.2520
R2     1.2600
R3     1.2650-1.2705

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

58.721

Buy
20-DMA   1.2369 Buy
50-DMA   1.2264 Buy
100-DMA   1.2407 Sell
200-DMA   1.2710 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   66.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Thursday made intra‐day low of JPY107.02/USD and made an intraday high of JPY107.02/USD and settled the day up by 0.451% at JPY107.95/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.10-109.55 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.80-105.00 with targets of 107.00-108.00-108.50 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.80-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.101-05.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     108.90¬-109.30
R3     110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.64 Sell
50-DMA   106.93 Sell
100-DMA   107.57 Buy
200-DMA   109.05 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   91.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0116 Buy

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