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  • Asian share markets firmed on Monday as signs of progress in the Sino-U.S. trade standoff whetted risk appetites, though investors remained wary of the damage already done to the global economy. Figures from China underlined the pain felt as dollar-denominated exports and imports both fell by more than expected in September. Liquidity was also lacking with Japan off and a partial market holiday in the United States for Columbus Day. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.1% in light trade. Sentiment had been boosted when U.S. President Donald Trump outlined the first phase of a deal to end a trade war with China and suspended a threatened tariff hike, though officials on both sides said much more work needed to be done. The emerging deal, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections, would represent the biggest step by the two countries in 15 months. The drag from the trade war was a major reason Singapore’s central bank eased monetary policy on Monday for the first time in three years as data showed the city-state’s economy had only narrowly dodged recession The yield curve also steepened as short-term rates were held down by news the Fed would start buying about $60 billion per month in Treasury bills to ensure “ample reserves” in the banking system. The pound was trading cautiously at $1.2614 GBP= having surged to a 15-week high around $1.2705 on Friday on optimism Britain could reach a deal on Brexit with the European Union. However, officials from Downing Street and the EU said on Sunday a lot more work would be needed to secure an agreement on Britain’s departure from the bloc. The two sides will hold more talks on Monday ahead of a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Investors were also anxiously watching Turkey’s incursion into Syria as the White House threatened to impose heavy sanctions on Ankara.
  • The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar on Monday in Asia despite renewed Brexit hopes. The greenback inched up amid positive trade progress with China. Reports suggested that the U.K. had conceded that the province of Northern Ireland would remain in the EU customs area immediately after Brexit – a move that would satisfy EU concerns about the integrity of its border. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he thought there was a way forward for a Brexit deal with the European Union, adding that “there is work to be done. On the data front, China’s U.S. dollar-denominated exports were down 3.2% in September, slightly more than expected. Imports also fell more than analysts’ forecast, customs data showed on Monday. That left China with a trade surplus of $39.65 billion in September, compared with a $34.84 billion surplus in August. China will release third-quarter GDP, September industrial production and retail sales data on Friday. The EU agreed on Friday to hold another round of intense negotiations with London in a bid to break the deadlock and secure a deal before the Oct. 31 deadline. EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart Stephen Barclay earlier held what both sides called a "constructive" meeting in Brussels. The British and Irish prime ministers said on Thursday they had found "a pathway" to a possible deal, and by Friday some officials were expressing guarded optimism. On Sunday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told his cabinet a last-minute deal was still possible as the two sides pressed on with intensive talks to try to avoid a disorderly Brexit on Oct. 31. Britain said there would be more talks on Monday, with Johnson hoping a deal will be agreed in time for EU leaders to approve it at a summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday this week. But he will still have to convince a deeply divided British parliament to ratify the agreement, while the European Commission said "a lot of work remains to be done" in a statement issued late on Sunday.
  • The dollar held near a 2 1/2-month high against the yen on Monday after Washington and Beijing announced progress toward a trade deal, while sterling hovered near a three-month peak on hopes for an orderly British exit from the European Union. On Friday, the dollar strengthened against the safe-haven yen to as much as 108.63 yen , its highest level since August 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and China had reached a 'Phase 1' trade deal. It pared those gains after Trump announced the agreement, covering agriculture, currency and some aspects of intellectual property protections. Tokyo's market is closed for a public holiday on Monday, so trading volumes are likely to lighter than usual. The trade deal "looks more symbolic than substantial, and might be better described as simply an 'interim trade war truce, The deal represents the biggest step between the United States and China in a 15-month trade dispute. Friday's announcement did not include many details and Trump said it could take up to five weeks to get a pact written. He acknowledged the agreement could fall apart during that period, though he expressed confidence that it would not.
  • Oil prices were down on Monday in Asia, after surging late last week, as traders are becoming more sceptical on whether the “phase one” trade deal the U.S. and China agreed on Friday would lead to a quick recovery in oil demand. Oil prices surged the most in almost a month on Friday following the news, buoyed by hopes that oil demand would pick up as tensions between the world’s biggest oil importers eased. However, oil gave up some of their gains today amid scepticism that the partial agreement might not represent a real turning point the long-running trade war. In a note written on Friday, Morgan Stanley strategists Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also tempered buying interest by again trimming its forecasts for global oil demand. The IEA downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth next year by 100,000 barrels a day. It also cut its forecast for 2019 by a similar amount but said this was due to changes in the calculation of last year’s output. In addition, it noted that petroleum stocks in advanced economies had increased for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them close to the record levels seen in 2016, when they topped 3 billion barrels.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,489-1,500 1,509 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 54.95-55.30 56.00 57.10
EURO/USD 1.1030 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2600 1.2650-1.2710 1.2790
USD/JPY 108.50 108.90¬-109.30 110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,470-1,466 1,447
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 53.90-53.30 52.70 52.10-51.50
EURO/USD 1.0980-1.0930 1.0860 1.0805-1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2520-1.2470 1.2440 1.2400-1.2350
USD/JPY 107.80-107.00 106.50 106.101-05.50

Intra-Day Strategy (14th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Friday made its intraday high of US$1503.11/oz and low of US$1473.94/oz. Gold down by 0.316% at US$1488.61/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1478-1447 with risk below 1447, targeting 1489-1500-1509 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1489-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1478-1470 and 1466-1460-1447.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,478
S2     1,470-1,466
S3     1,447
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,489-1,500
R2     1,509
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

44.887

Buy
20-DMA   1500.11 Sell
50-DMA  

1506.92

Sell
100-DMA   1446.29 Buy
200-DMA   1371.36 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   28.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.409 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Friday made its intraday high of US$17.74/oz and low of US$17.32/oz. Silver settled up by 0.389% at US$17.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.90-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   51.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.72 Sell
50-DMA   17.65 Sell
100-DMA   16.54 Buy
200-DMA   15.90 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.035 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$54.92/bbl, intraday low of US$53.64/bbl and settled up by 1.860% to close at US$54.87/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 53.90-51.40 with risk daily closing below 51.40 and targeting 54.95-55.40 and 56.00-57.10. Sell below 52.70-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 52.10-51.90 and 51.00-50.40.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.90-53.30
S2     52.70
S3     52.10-51.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.95-55.30
R2     56.00
R3     57.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.864 Sell
20-DMA   55.18 Sell
50-DMA   55.29 Sell
100-DMA   55.77 Sell
200-DMA   57.09 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   91.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.742 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Friday made an intraday low of US$1.1000/EUR, high of US$1.1062/EUR and settled the day up by 0.339% to close at US$1.1041/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0980-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1200 targeting 1.0960-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980-1.0930
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0805-1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1030
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0983 Sell
50-DMA   1.1044 Sell
100-DMA   1.1139 Sell
200-DMA   1.1216 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0007 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

Buy above 1.0980-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1200 targeting 1.0960-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2600-1.2790 with targets at 1.2520-1.2440-1.2400 and 1.2350-1.2260 stop-loss should be below 1.2790. Buy above 1.2520-1.2350 with targets 1.2600-1.2650 and 1.2710-1.2790 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2520-1.2470
S2     1.2440
S3     1.2400-1.2350

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2600
R2     1.2650-1.2710
R3     1.2790

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

61.234

Buy
20-DMA   1.2387 Buy
50-DMA   1.2277 Buy
100-DMA   1.2408 Sell
200-DMA   1.2710 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   83.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Friday made intra‐day low of JPY107.84/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.61/USD and settled the day up by 0.324% at JPY108.30/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-110.00 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.80-105.00 with targets of 107.00-108.00-108.50 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.80-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.101-05.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     108.90¬-109.30
R3     110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.64 Sell
50-DMA   106.93 Sell
100-DMA   107.57 Buy
200-DMA   109.05 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   91.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.0116 Buy

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