AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks and the pound gained on Tuesday as investors held out hope that Britain still had a chance of avoiding a messy exit from the European Union at key negotiations this week. The pound rose against the dollar and the euro, reflecting the cautious optimism about talks between Britain and the EU. Capping broader gains in equities, however, was a perceived lack of progress coming out of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Reports of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China last week had earlier cheered markets but the dearth of details around the agreement has since curbed this enthusiasm with oil prices extending declines, Chinese stocks weaker and the safe-haven yen holding gains versus dollar. The focus has now shifted to Europe where officials from Britain and the EU will meet at a make-or-break summit on Thursday and Friday that will determine whether or not Britain is headed for a so-called no-deal Brexit. Traders, however, cautioned that sentiment remains fragile because the outcome of Brexit talks is far from certain and the U.S.-China trade war remains a risk to global growth. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to strike an exit deal at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday to allow an orderly departure on Oct. 31. The main sticking point remains the border between EU member Ireland and Northern Ireland, which belongs to the UK. Some EU politicians have expressed guarded optimism that a deal can be reached. However, diplomats from the EU have indicated they are pessimistic about Johnson’s proposed solution for the border and want more concessions. A perceived lack of progress in resolving a prolonged trade row between the United States and China also weighed on investor confidence. The United States agreed to delay an Oct. 15 increase in tariffs on Chinese goods while Beijing said it would buy as much as $50 billion of U.S. agricultural products after tense negotiations last week. Trade experts and China market analysts say chances are high that Washington and Beijing will fail to agree on any specifics - as happened in May - in time for a mid-November meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
  • The British pound took center stage again on Tuesday, rising sharply against the dollar and euro on renewed speculation of a deal to allow the U.K. to leave the EU smoothly at the end of the month. The latest wave of optimism was fueled by comments from the EU’s top negotiator Michel Barnier, who told reporters that a deal at a summit at the end of the week “is still possible”. Barnier has repeatedly stressed the gap between the U.K.’s rhetoric and its ability to deliver effective solutions in a legally enforceable framework. He said Tuesday that “any agreement must work for everyone,” adding that it is “high time to turn good intentions in a legal text.” Prior to Barnier’s comments, there had also been rumors of an emergency summit on Oct. 31, only hours before the U.K.’s membership of the EU is scheduled to end. The thinking behind the rally is that such a summit would only take place if it had a reasonable chance of delivering a deal. Elsewhere, the Turkish lira bounced after falling to its lowest since a brief currency panic in May, as the “big sanctions” promised by President Donald Trump against Turkey turned out to be more manageable than feared. The dollar hovered below 2-1/2-month highs against the yen on Tuesday, failing to extend recent gains as optimism over trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies and for an orderly British exit from the European Union started to fade. Although markets initially welcomed the "Phase 1" trade deal between the United States and China that President Donald Trump outlined last week, a lack of details kept many investors cautious. A Bloomberg report on Monday, citing sources, said China wants more talks as soon as the end of October to hammer out the details of Trump's phase 1 deal before Chinese President Xi Jinping agrees to sign it. Negotiations between the UK and the European Union over Britain's exit from the bloc also looked equally fleeting. Sterling slipped from a three-month high touched on Friday as last week's euphoria gave way to doubts over whether a timely Brexit deal could be clinched. The pound was last quoted at $1.2611 versus the dollar; steady on the day A deal to smooth Britain's departure from the EU hung in the balance on Monday after diplomats indicated the bloc wanted more concessions from Prime Minister Boris Johnson and said a full agreement was unlikely this week. Johnson says he wants to strike an exit deal at an EU summit on Thursday and Friday to allow an orderly departure on Oct. 31. If an agreement is not possible, he says he will lead the United Kingdom out of the club it joined in 1973 without a deal - even though parliament has passed a law saying he cannot do so.
  • Oil prices fell on Tuesday, after heavy losses in the previous session, as two days of weak Chinese data added to worries about the top crude oil importer's energy demand growth. China has been hit by poor economic data for two straight days. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Tuesday that China's factory gate prices declined at the fastest pace in more than three years in September. That followed customs data on Monday that showed Chinese imports had contracted for a fifth straight month. The U.S.-China trade dispute also continued to cast a shadow on the global economy, despite claims of progress toward a deal, leaving unanswered questions over future oil demand. Taken all together that was enough to outweigh any support oil prices might have received from worries about possible escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East On Monday U.S. President Trump imposed sanctions on Turkey and demanded the NATO ally stop a military incursion in northeast Syria that is rapidly reshaping the battlefield of the world's deadliest ongoing war. Prices could also get a boost this week as investors are expecting a drawdown in crude inventories in the United States The next weekly U.S. oil inventory reports are due out from industry group the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Oct. 16.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
15th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,500 1,509 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 53.90-54.95 55.30 56.00-57.10
EURO/USD 1.1050 1.1090 1.1130-1.1180
GBP/USD 1.2710-1.2790 1.2865 1.2920-1.3000
USD/JPY 108.50 108.90¬-109.30 110.00

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
15th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,489-1,478 1,470 1,466-1,447
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 53.30 52.70 52.10-51.50
EURO/USD 1.0980-1.0930 1.0860 1.0805-1.0740
GBP/USD 1.2650-1.2600 1.2520 1.2470-1.2440
USD/JPY 107.80-107.00 106.50 106.101-05.50

Intra-Day Strategy (15th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1497.06/oz and low of US$1482.78/oz. Gold up by 0.381% at US$1493.03/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1489-1447 with risk below 1447, targeting 1500-1509 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1500-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1489-1478-1470 and 1466-1460-1447.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,489-1,478
S2     1,470
S3     1,466-1,447
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,500
R2     1,509
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

46.882

Buy
20-DMA   1500.00 Sell
50-DMA  

1507.40

Sell
100-DMA   1448.47 Buy
200-DMA   1372.40 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   39.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -2.409 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.68/oz and low of US$17.41/oz. Silver settled up by 0.627% at US$17.62/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.90-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.70 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   49.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.68 Sell
50-DMA   17.72 Sell
100-DMA   16.57 Buy
200-DMA   15.91 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   47.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.051 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$54.88/bbl, intraday low of US$52.82/bbl and settled down by 2.580% to close at US$53.46/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 53.30-51.40 with risk daily closing below 51.40 and targeting 54.95-55.40 and 56.00-57.10. Sell below 53.90-55.40 with stop loss at 55.40; targeting 53.30-52.70-52.10 and 51.90-51.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.30
S2     52.70
S3     52.10-51.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.90-54.95
R2     55.30
R3     56.00-57.10

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   43.864 Sell
20-DMA   54.87 Sell
50-DMA   55.27 Sell
100-DMA   55.70 Sell
200-DMA   57.10 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   70.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.800 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1011/EUR, high of US$1.1042/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0217% to close at US$1.1026/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0980-1.0740 with risk below 1.0740, targeting 1.1030-1.1090-1.1130 and 1.1160-1.1200. Sell below 1.1030-1.1200 targeting 1.0960-1.0860 and 1.0805-1.0740 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980-1.0930
S2     1.0860
S3     1.0805-1.0740

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1050
R2     1.1090
R3     1.1130-1.1180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0981 Sell
50-DMA   1.1041 Sell
100-DMA   1.1138 Sell
200-DMA   1.1214 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   78.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Friday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2515/GBP, high of US$1.2649/GBP and settled the day down by 0.106% to close at US$1.2605/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2710-1.3000 with targets at 1.2650-1.2600-1.2520 and 1.2440-1.2400 stop-loss should be below 1.3000. Buy above 1.2650-1.2440 with targets 1.2710-1.2790-1.2865 and 1.2920-1.3000 with stop loss closing below 1.2100.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2650-1.2600
S2     1.2520
S3     1.2470-1.2440

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2710-1.2790
R2     1.2865
R3     1.2920-1.3000

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

65.234

Buy
20-DMA   1.2398 Buy
50-DMA   1.2288 Buy
100-DMA   1.2409 Sell
200-DMA   1.2710 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.0074 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.39/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.51/USD and settled the day up by 0.079% at JPY108.39/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-110.00 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.80-105.00 with targets of 107.00-108.00-108.50 and 108.90-109.55 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.80-107.00
S2     106.50
S3     106.101-05.50

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50
R2     108.90¬-109.30
R3     110.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   61.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.68 Sell
50-DMA   107.02 Sell
100-DMA   107.55 Buy
200-DMA   109.05 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   85.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.221 Buy

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