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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares made guarded gains on Tuesday amid optimism about prospects for a Sino-U.S. trade deal, while investors were sanguine yet another vote on Brexit would still avert a hard exit for Britain. China and the United States have achieved some progress in their trade talks, Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said on Tuesday, adding that as long as both sides respected each other, no problem could not be resolved. U.S. President Donald Trump sounded upbeat on a China deal on Monday, while White House adviser Larry Kudlow said tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for December could be withdrawn if talks go well. Sterling held firm at $1.2980 after Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed to get a vote on his Brexit deal and will try again on Tuesday to get the first stage of a withdrawal bill through Parliament. The Canadian dollar kept its recent gains at C$1.3076 per U.S. dollar as CBC TV predicted the ruling Liberal government of Justin Trudeau had won re-election but with a minority government. Oil prices were little moved as the market fretted about the health of the global economy and the future for energy demand.
  • Signs that the U.S. and China were making progress in efforts to resolve their trade dispute supported both the dollar and trade-exposed Asian currencies on Tuesday, while the Canadian dollar rose as voters went to the polls in a closely-fought election. The volatile pound sat just under a 5-1/2-month high at $1.2962, with the Brexit project in disarray but traders looking to another crucial parliamentary vote on Tuesday to determine the next step. U.S. President Donald Trump said in Washington that work toward ending the U.S.-China dispute was going well, while White House adviser Larry Kudlow said tariffs scheduled for December could be withdrawn if progress is made. Meanwhile Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that while a deal may not be finalized next month, that was less important than securing "the right deal," following Chinese Vice Premier and chief negotiator Liu He saying last week that Beijing is approaching talks from a basis of mutual respect. The dollar was steady against most major currencies in early Asian trade, holding only a fraction below a three-month high against the Japanese yen at 108.58 yen per dollar. It held near that level as the first polls closed, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seeking to cling to power against a strong challenge from opposition Conservatives. The trade exposed Australian and New Zealand dollars drifted higher, though remained marginally below one-month peaks that both currencies touched overnight. The Aussie last traded at $0.6867 and the kiwi at $0.6409. The British pound rebounded against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday in Asia, but was still under pressure after Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow said there would be no vote on the latest Brexit deal as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had hoped. Johnson had made a deal with the EU last week in the hopes of leaving the bloc on Oct. 31. But due to legislation passed on Saturday, he was forced to ask for yet another extension. He said before that he would “rather be dead in a ditch” than ask for an extension. Reports this week said he has resolved to press on with seeking to pass Brexit-related laws in parliament on Tuesday. On the Sino-U.S. trade front, there were signs that the U.S. and China were making progress in efforts to resolve their trade dispute. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that China has begun buying U.S.-made agricultural products and that work toward ending the U.S.-China dispute was going well, while White House adviser Larry Kudlow said tariffs scheduled for December could be rollbacked if progress is made.
  • Oil prices turned lower on Tuesday in Asia despite signs of easing tensions between China and the U.S., the world’s biggest oil importers. Oil prices traded higher earlier in the day after U.S. President Donald Trump said during a Cabinet meeting at the White House that China has begun buying American agriculture products. Le Yucheng, China’s Vice Foreign Minister, said the two sides have achieved some progress in trade negotiations. “The world wants China and the United States to end their trade war,” he said. Some believe Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign a partial trade deal in Chile next month during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings. However, oil markets gave up their gains and traded in the red on Tuesday afternoon. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said overnight that the partial trade deal doesn't necessary has to be finalised next month, emphasizing the need to get the right deal. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said efforts to end a U.S. trade war with China were going well as negotiators from the two nations work to nail down a Phase 1 trade deal text for their leaders to sign next month when they meet at November's APEC summit. Although there are some signs of easing tensions between the world's two largest economies, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Monday that an initial trade deal doesn't need to be finalised next month, emphasizing the need to get the right deal. That raises the risk of further prolonged negotiations and feed market anxiety about the prospects for a durable deal. Adding to tensions, China is seeking $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions against the United States for non-compliance with a WTO ruling in a tariffs case dating back to the era of President Barack Obama, a document showed. On the supply side, U.S. crude stockpiles were expected to have increased for the sixth straight week, while distillates and gasoline stocks likely fell in the week to Oct.18, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
22nd October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,489-1,500 1,509 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.60-17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 53.90 54.95 55.30-56.00
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1200 1.1250 1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2990-1.3040 1.3100 1.3170
USD/JPY 109.30-110.00 110.70 111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
22nd October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,470 1,466-1,447
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 53.30-52.70 52.10 51.50-50.60
EURO/USD 1.1140-1.1090 1.1050 1.0980-1.0930
GBP/USD 1.2920-1.2865 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (22nd October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1495.16/oz and low of US$1481.45/oz. Gold down by 0.485% at US$1484.31/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1478-1447 with risk below 1447, targeting 1489-1500-1509 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1489-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1478-1470 and 1466-1460-1447.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,478
S2     1,470
S3     1,466-1,447
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,489-1,500
R2     1,509
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

45.882

Buy
20-DMA   1493.33 Sell
50-DMA  

1506.80

Sell
100-DMA   1457.55 Buy
200-DMA   1377.35 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   45.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.651 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$17.86/oz and low of US$17.49/oz. Silver settled down by 0.022% at US$17.54/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.70-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.30-16.90 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.60-17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.62 Sell
50-DMA   17.74 Sell
100-DMA   16.66 Buy
200-DMA   15.94 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Friday made an intra‐day high of US$54.65/bbl, intraday low of US$53.40/bbl and settled down by 0.007% to close at US$53.72/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 53.30-50.60 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 53.90-54.95 and 55.40-56.00. Sell below 53.90-56.00 with stop loss at 56.00; targeting 53.30-52.70-52.10 and 51.90-51.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.30-52.70
S2     52.10
S3     51.50-50.60

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     53.90
R2     54.95
R3     55.30-56.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   46.864 Sell
20-DMA   53.91 Sell
50-DMA   55.28 Sell
100-DMA   55.63 Sell
200-DMA   57.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.664 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1137/EUR, high of US$1.1178/EUR and settled the day down by 0.103% to close at US$1.1148/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1140-1.0930 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1180-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1300. Sell below 1.1140-1.1250 targeting 1.1090-1.1050-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1140-1.1090
S2     1.1050
S3     1.0980-1.0930

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1200
R2     1.1250
R3     1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.0992 Buy
50-DMA   1.1035 Buy
100-DMA   1.1137 Sell
200-DMA   1.1208 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   88.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2873/GBP, high of US$1.3011/GBP and settled the day up by 0.0679% to close at US$1.2958/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2990-1.3170 with targets at 1.2920-1.2865-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3000. Buy above 1.2920-1.2650 with targets 1.2990-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3170 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2920-1.2865
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990-1.3040
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3170

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

74.234

Buy
20-DMA   1.2516 Buy
50-DMA   1.2375 Buy
100-DMA   1.2424 Sell
200-DMA   1.2713 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.016 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.28/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.65/USD and settled the day up by 0.193% at JPY108.58/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-110.70 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.80-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.75 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   107.54 Buy
200-DMA   109.06 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   93.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.303 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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