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Daily Market Lookup

  • U.S. stock futures and Asian shares slipped on Wednesday as revenue warnings from Texas Instruments raised worries about the global tech sector and after British lawmakers forced the government to hit the pause button on the latest Brexit deal. After the bell, Texas Instruments (TXN.O), whose broad lineup of products makes it a proxy for the global chip industry, forecast current-quarter revenue to fall 10%-17% from a year earlier, well below estimates. Worries that the global microchip industry is being squeezed by a downturn in demand and the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute sent some Asian chip-related shares lower. But the pound still kept hefty gains made over the past fortnight on growing expectations that a no-deal Brexit will be avoided even though it is still not clear what the path ahead will be. On Tuesday, the British parliament voted in favour of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan, but then rejected his timetable to fast-track legislation to take Britain out of the European Union. That effectively meant Britain would not be able to finalise its exit by Johnson’s Oct. 31 deadline. The next step, Johnson said, would be waiting for the EU to respond to a request to delay the Oct. 31 Brexit date, which the prime minister reluctantly sent to Brussels on Saturday after being forced to do so by lawmakers. A source in Johnson’s office said on Tuesday that a new election is the only way to move on from Britain’s Brexit crisis if the European Union agrees to a delay until January. The dollar was broadly weak, ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week at which policymakers are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage point.
  • The British pound fell after the government was defeated in a vote on the timetable for Brexit, diminishing the possibility of the U.K. leaving the EU before the end of this month. With no major events or economic data scheduled in Asia today, traders focused on news in the U.K. as lawmakers rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to fast-track his Brexit deal through parliament. While the vote means that it is almost impossible for Johnson to get his deal ratified by next week, the risk of a no-deal scenriao was also largely neutralized as the government had earlier won a first vote on the deal legislation to progress. Traders also continued monitoring the situation on the Sino-U.S. trade front, although no major news is expected before officials from the two nations meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile in mid-November. The pound steadied on Wednesday after an overnight fall as Brexit hung in the balance, with the UK Parliament still divided on how, when or even if to engineer Britain's departure from the European Union. The yen rose against the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar as some investors sought a safe haven amid doubts about efforts to scale back a bruising trade war between the United States and China. On Tuesday, UK lawmakers voted by 329 to 299 in favor of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit plan, but then opposed Johnson's extremely tight timetable to complete the legislative process in three days by 322 to 308 votes. It is now up to the EU to decide whether to extend Britain's Oct. 31 deadline for its departure from the bloc, although there is hope Britain can avoid the worst case scenario, which is leaving the EU without any deal in place. With no major economic data scheduled in Asia on Wednesday, traders will be left to ponder whether Britain will hold a general election to break the impasse. Investors are also closely watching for signs of a thaw in the U.S.-China trade war, which has proven to be a big risk to financial markets and global economic growth. Sterling initially rose on Tuesday after parliament approved a second reading of the Brexit deal, but then fell after lawmakers rejected the timetable. It was the first time parliament has signaled support for a deal on how Britain would leave the EU, but Johnson had warned prior to the votes that he would push for an election if his timetable for Brexit were defeated. The United States and China are trying to finalize the first phase of a trade agreement before an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile in mid-November. An exclusive Reuters report that one of the U.S. advisors to U.S. President Donald Trump on trade talks with China will leave government could introduce some uncertainty about future trade talks.
  • Oil prices traded lower on Wednesday in Asia after data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week. The Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s weekly report is due tomorrow. Analysts expect the EIA to report a build of 2.23 million barrels. Oil prices have slumped about 18% from an April peak as the Sino-U.S. trade war dragged on and as global supplies swelled. Citing unnamed OPEC sources, Reuters reported that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are concerned about the demand outlook next year. U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels to 437 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 18, compared with analyst expectations for a gain of 2.2 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed. Inventory data from the U.S. EIA is due later on Wednesday. The OPEC is mulling whether to deepen production cuts amid concerns of weak demand growth next year, underpinning prices after helping to lift both benchmarks more than 1% in the previous session OPEC and other oil producers including Russia, which have pledged to cut production by 1.2 mn bpd until March 2020, are scheduled to meet again on Dec. 5-6. OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia, however, wants to focus first on boosting adherence to the group's output reduction pact with Russia and other non-members before committing to more cuts, sources from the oil-producing club said Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the United States, the world's two largest economies, were also helping to cushion overall sentiment for oil, traders said. U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier this week that efforts to end the trade war with China were going well, while a similar view was echoed by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng on Tuesday. Washington and Beijing are trying to finalize the first phase of a trade agreement for Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign in November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
23rd October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,494-1,500 1,509 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.60-17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 54.95 55.30-56.00 56.50
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1200 1.1250 1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2990-1.3040 1.3100 1.3170
USD/JPY 109.30-110.00 110.70 111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
23rd October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,470 1,466-1,447
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 53.90-53.30 52.70 52.10-51.50
EURO/USD 1.1090 1.1050 1.0980-1.0930
GBP/USD 1.2920-1.2865 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (23rd October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$1488.92/oz and low of US$1480.76/oz. Gold up by 0.223% at US$1487.44/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1478-1447 with risk below 1447, targeting 1489-1500-1509 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1489-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1478-1470 and 1466-1460-1447.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,478
S2     1,470
S3     1,466-1,447
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,494-1,500
R2     1,509
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.882

Buy
20-DMA   1492.33 Sell
50-DMA  

1505.33

Sell
100-DMA   1459.55 Buy
200-DMA   1378.35 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.55 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Tuesday made its intraday high of US$17.65/oz and low of US$17.41/oz. Silver settled down by 0.290% at US$17.49/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.70-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.30-16.90 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.60-17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.62 Sell
50-DMA   17.74 Sell
100-DMA   16.66 Buy
200-DMA   15.94 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Tuesday made an intra‐day high of US$54.78/bbl, intraday low of US$53.20/bbl and settled up by 1.330% to close at US$54.28/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 53.90-50.60 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 54.95-55.40 and 56.00-56.50-57.10. Sell below 54.50-57.10 with stop loss at 57.10; targeting 53.90-53.30-52.70 and 52.10-51.90.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     53.90-53.30
S2     52.70
S3     52.10-51.50

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     54.95
R2     55.30-56.00
R3     56.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.864 Sell
20-DMA   53.91 Sell
50-DMA   55.28 Sell
100-DMA   55.63 Sell
200-DMA   57.14 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   58.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.664 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Tuesday made an intraday low of US$1.1169/EUR, high of US$1.1156/EUR and settled the day down by 0.223% to close at US$1.1170/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1090-1.0930 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1180-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1300. Sell below 1.1140-1.1250 targeting 1.1090-1.1050-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1090
S2     1.1050
S3     1.0980-1.0930

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1200
R2     1.1250
R3     1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1017 Buy
50-DMA   1.1034 Buy
100-DMA   1.1134 Sell
200-DMA   1.1204 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Tuesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2861/GBP, high of US$1.2999/GBP and settled the day down by 0.677% to close at US$1.2870/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2990-1.3170 with targets at 1.2920-1.2865-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3000. Buy above 1.2920-1.2650 with targets 1.2990-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3170 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2920-1.2865
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990-1.3040
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3170

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

74.234

Buy
20-DMA   1.2516 Buy
50-DMA   1.2375 Buy
100-DMA   1.2424 Sell
200-DMA   1.2713 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.016 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Tuesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.43/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.72/USD and settled the day down by 0.114% at JPY108.47/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-110.70 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.80-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.75 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   107.54 Buy
200-DMA   109.06 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   93.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.303 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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