AAFX TRADING

Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares pulled ahead on Thursday as corporate earnings and a ceasefire in northern Syria helped prop up sentiment, though the backdrop of trade and brexit uncertainties was enough to prevent a decisive shift towards riskier assets. Risk appetite was also aided after U.S. President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Turkey saying a ceasefire in northern Syria was now permanent. JPMorgan expects gains in the Japanese index to extend into year-end led by share buy-backs. A private survey showed Japanese factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in over three years in October, hurt by slowing global demand and trade frictions. Tesla shares jumped 21% in after-hours trading following a surprise third quarter profit. Microsoft also posted forecast-beating profit and revenue numbers after the closing bell though the outlook was darkened by slower-than-expected take-up of its Azure cloud services. Earlier, shares of U.S. industrial bellwethers Boeing Co and Caterpillar Inc ended about 1% higher each despite big earnings misses. RBC Capital Markets’ chief economist Tom Porcelli pointed to consistently alarming headlines since the first quarter of 2018 suggesting poor Caterpillar earnings meant a recession was round the corner, though that has yet to transpire. Currency markets stuck to tight ranges ahead of key central bank meetings this week and next with the euro zone, Japan and United States due to review policy. European and U.S. manufacturing numbers are due later in the day. EU member states on Wednesday delayed a decision on whether to grant Britain a three-month Brexit extension. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said if the deadline is deferred to the end of January, he would call an election.
  • The U.S. dollar was little changed on Thursday in Asia as traders remain cautious ahead of key central bank meetings this week and next. Central banks in Japan and United States are due to review policy next week, while traders also await the European Central Bank’s meeting due later in the day. No major policy announcement is expected, but the meeting is expected to generate some attention as it isthe final one for current President Mario Draghi, who will end his eight-year term at the ECB at the end of the month. Brexit developments continued to dominate headlines in the U.K. after parliament forced a delay in the government's Brexit plans. On Tuesday, parliament opposed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's three day timetable for passing Brexit legislation. The stage now looks set to push for a general election before Christmas to break the impasse. It is up to the EU to decide whether to extend Britain's Oct. 31 deadline for its departure. Citing one unnamed EU official, the CNBC reported that EU leaders could decide on the delay as early as Thursday. The British pound stabilized on Thursday as the Brexit project entered a fresh holding pattern, while the dollar held firm as traders took a breather from Sino-U.S. trade headlines. Currency markets are also sticking to tight ranges ahead of key central bank meetings this week and next with the euro zone, Japan and United States due to review policy. Sterling held at $1.2911 after Britain's parliament backed a withdrawal deal, but rejected the government's tight timetable, while European Union members delayed deciding whether to grant a three-month extension to the Oct. 31 leaving date. The pound has soared 6% in two weeks of volatile trade since British Prime Minister Boris Johnson flagged and then clinched a deal with the EU on the terms of Britain's exit from the bloc. Positive comments from U.S. and Chinese leaders earlier in the week about progress negotiating a truce in a their trade dispute had rallied trade-exposed currencies. That has begun to run out of steam as concerns about the health of the U.S. economy returned to the fore. The dollar was steady in Asian trade, gaining marginally against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, slipping marginally against the euro and Japanese yen. The euro held at $1.1132 with traders looking to euro zone manufacturing and services data and the outcome of a European Central Bank meeting, both due later on Thursday. The ECB is all but certain to leave policy unchanged on Thursday, six weeks after unveiling a package including new asset purchases worth 20 billion euros a month, a rate cut and a pledge to open the money taps further if needed.
  • Oil prices dropped on Thursday in Asia, erasing gains recorded following a surprise dip in U.S. crude stockpiles. Oil prices rallied more than 1% overnight after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 1.7-million-barrel crude inventory drop for the week ended Oct.18, versus analysts’ expectations for a build of 2.2 million barrels. But oil gave up its gains soon after, with comments by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak cited as headwind for the markets as he said no formal proposals have been put forward to change the terms of a global deal on curbing oil supplies that was agreed between OPEC and its allies. Also putting pressure on the market today was a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that projected economic growth across Asia will slow more than previously expected. Growth in Asia could moderate to 5% in 2019, and 5.1% in 2020, the IMF said. That is 0.4% and 0.3% lower than its April projections. Oil is down more than 15% from an April peak as trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest oil importers, dented global demand.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
24th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,494-1,500 1,509 1,524-1,535
Silver-XAG 17.60-17.90 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 56.00 56.50-57.20 58.00
EURO/USD 1.1180-1.1200 1.1250 1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2990-1.3040 1.3100 1.3170
USD/JPY 109.30-110.00 110.70 111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
24th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,484-1,478 1,470 1,466-1,447
Silver-XAG 17.30-16.90 16.25 16.00-15.70
Crude Oil 55.30-54.95 53.90 53.30-52.70
EURO/USD 1.1090 1.1050 1.0980-1.0930
GBP/USD 1.2920-1.2865 1.2790 1.2710-1.2650
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (24th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1488.92/oz and low of US$1487.49/oz. Gold up by 0.290% at US$1491.84/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1478-1447 with risk below 1447, targeting 1489-1500-1509 and 1524-1535. Sell below 1489-1535 keeping stop loss closing above 1535, targeting 1478-1470 and 1466-1460-1447.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,484-1,478
S2     1,470
S3     1,466-1,447
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,494-1,500
R2     1,509
R3     1,524-1,535

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.882

Buy
20-DMA   1492.33 Sell
50-DMA  

1505.33

Sell
100-DMA   1378.35 Buy
200-DMA   1378.35 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   46.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.55 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.60/oz and low of US$17.49/oz. Silver settled up by 0.09% at US$17.51/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.70-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.30-16.90 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30-16.90
S2     16.25
S3     16.00-15.70

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.60-17.90
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.62 Sell
50-DMA   17.74 Sell
100-DMA   16.66 Buy
200-DMA   15.94 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   49.268 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$56.05/bbl, intraday low of US$53.60/bbl and settled up by 2.986% to close at US$55.82/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover for confirmation of bearish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 55.30-52.60 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 56.00-56.50 and 57.20-58.00. Sell below 56.00-58.10 with stop loss at 58.10; targeting 55.30-54.95-53.90 and 53.30-52.70-52.10.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     55.30-54.95
S2     53.90
S3     53.30-52.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.00
R2     56.50-57.20
R3     58.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.864 Sell
20-DMA   53.71 Sell
50-DMA   55.27 Sell
100-DMA   55.71 Sell
200-DMA   57.19 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   85.130 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.664 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday made an intraday low of US$1.1105/EUR, high of US$1.1139/EUR and settled the day up by 0.0476% to close at US$1.1129/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1090-1.0930 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1180-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1300. Sell below 1.1140-1.1250 targeting 1.1090-1.1050-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1250.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1090
S2     1.1050
S3     1.0980-1.0930

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1180-1.1200
R2     1.1250
R3     1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1017 Buy
50-DMA   1.1034 Buy
100-DMA   1.1134 Sell
200-DMA   1.1204 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   68.958 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2840/GBP, high of US$1.2920/GBP and settled the day up by 0.319% to close at US$1.2910/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2990-1.3170 with targets at 1.2920-1.2865-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3000. Buy above 1.2920-1.2650 with targets 1.2990-1.3040 and 1.3100-1.3170 with stop loss closing below 1.2650.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2920-1.2865
S2     1.2790
S3     1.2710-1.2650

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2990-1.3040
R2     1.3100
R3     1.3170

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

74.234

Buy
20-DMA   1.2516 Buy
50-DMA   1.2375 Buy
100-DMA   1.2424 Sell
200-DMA   1.2713 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   92.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.016 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.24/USD and made an intraday high of JPY108.72/USD and settled the day up by 0.114% at JPY108.68/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-110.70 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 107.80-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   64.122 Buy
20-DMA   107.75 Sell
50-DMA   107.13 Sell
100-DMA   107.54 Buy
200-DMA   109.06 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   93.253 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.303 Buy

AAFX TRADING
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