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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares crept to a three-month peak on Tuesday after Wall Street hit all-time highs amid hopes of progress in Sino-U.S. trade talks and for another dose of policy stimulus from the Federal Reserve this week. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he expected to sign a significant part of a trade deal with China ahead of schedule but did not elaborate on the timing. The U.S. trade representative also said the U.S. was studying whether to extend tariff suspensions on $34 billion of Chinese goods set to expire on Dec. 28 this year. The embrace of risk left bonds out in the cold, and yields on two-year Treasury notes hit four-week highs at 1.667%. Bond investors are still looking forward to a likely rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, though they also suspect officials might signal caution on moving yet further. Central banks in Japan and Canada also meet this week; with talk the former might ease further if only to prevent an export-sapping bounce in its currency. Sterling firmed after the European Union agreed to a Brexit delay of up to three months, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson lost a vote to force an election on Dec. 12.
  • The U.S. dollar was near flat on Tuesday in Asia as traders awaited a highly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting this week. The Fed is strongly expected to cut rate for the third time this year on Wednesday when policy makers meet, but investors will be watching for any indication that further cuts are likely. Markets also continued to pay close attention to the Sino-U.S. trade developments. Tension between the two nations eased somewhat as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said Washington is considering extending certain tariff exclusions on $34 billion of Chinese imports. The news came after U.S. President Donald Trump said overnight that a trade agreement looked to be ahead of schedule, without detailing the timing. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair slipped 0.1% after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed to win support for an early general election. The vote came just hours after European Union Council President Donald Tusk also confirmed that the EU has agreed to extend the deadline for Brexit until Jan. 31, 2020 after a request from the U.K. government. Both the dollar and riskier Asian currencies held on to modest overnight gains on Tuesday, amid hopes for an easing in Sino-U.S. trade tensions and as investors waited for direction from this week's Federal Reserve meeting.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump said a trade agreement looked to be ahead of schedule on Monday, without detailing the timing, while the U.S. also said it was studying whether to extend tariff suspensions due to expire in December. That followed remarks late last week from both U.S. and Chinese officials saying they were "close to finalising" a deal that lifted trade-exposed currencies such as the Australian dollar, while weighing on safe-havens such as the Japanese yen. The mood cautiously held on Tuesday. He added, though, that China's demand for a pullback on U.S. tariffs remained unresolved and warned talks could easily fail again if a compromise cannot be reached. Beyond the trade headlines, the major focus this week is the Fed meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to cut rates for a third time in a row when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Investors are watching for any indication that further cuts are likely, with futures pricing suggesting an expectation for further easing in 2020. The European Union has agreed to delay Britain's exit for up to three months, but the country is politically paralyzed and overnight parliament rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson's third attempt to schedule a Dec. 12 election. Johnson has said he would try again, by a different legislative route that would only require a simple majority, rather than a two-thirds majority.
  • Oil prices fell on Oil prices continued to slide on Tuesday in Asia despite reports that China and the U.S., the world’s biggest oil importers, are close to signing a “phase one” partial trade deal. U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected to sign a significant part of the planned U.S. trade deal “ahead of schedule,” while the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said Washington is considering extending certain tariff exclusions on $34 billion of Chinese imports. Earlier reports said leaders from the two nations might officially sign the phase one agreement next month in Chile. The positive trade development lifted U.S. stocks overnight, but did not provide much support to the oil markets today. Weak China data were cited as headwind for the oil markets this week. Profits at Chinese industrial companies fell for the second straight month in September as producer prices continued their slide, data showed on Monday, highlighting the impact of the slowing economy and protracted U.S. trade war on corporate balance sheets. Looking ahead, traders now await the weekly U.S. inventory data. The American Petroleum Institute releases industry data later on Tuesday, while the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration releases inventory data on Wednesday. Total U.S. crude inventories were forecast to have increased by around 700,000 barrels last week. Total U.S. crude inventories were forecast to have increased by around 700,000 barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, having unexpectedly fallen the previous week. U.S. crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, have risen by about 1.5 million barrels in the week through Oct. 25, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. The American Petroleum Institute releases industry data later on Tuesday, while the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration releases inventory data on Wednesday. The United States Trade Representative is studying whether to extend tariff suspensions on $34 billion of Chinese goods set to expire on Dec. 28 this year, the agency said on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier on Monday he expected to sign a significant part of the trade deal with China ahead of schedule but did not elaborate on the timing.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
29th October 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,500-1,509 1,524 1,535-1,546
Silver-XAG 17.80-18.00 18.50 18.90-19.20
Crude Oil 56.00-56.50 57.20 58.00-58.70
EURO/USD 1.1090-1.1180 1.1200 1.1250-1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2920 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100
USD/JPY 109.30-110.00 110.70 111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
29th October 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,489 1,478 1,470-1,466
Silver-XAG 17.60-17.30 16.90 16.25-16.00
Crude Oil 55.30 54.95 53.90-53.30
EURO/USD 1.1050 1.0980-1.0930 1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2790 1.2710 1.2650-1.2600
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (29th October 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Monday made its intraday high of US$1508.15/oz and low of US$1489.96/oz. Gold down by 0.786% at US$1492.36/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1489-1447 with risk below 1447, targeting 1500-1509-1524 and 1535-1546-1555. Sell below 1500-1546 keeping stop loss closing above 1546, targeting 1489-1478 and 1470-1466.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,489
S2     1,478
S3     1,470-1,466
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,500-1,509
R2     1,524
R3     1,535-1,546

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

59.882

Buy
20-DMA   1494.33 Sell
50-DMA  

1504.33

Sell
100-DMA   1464.55 Buy
200-DMA   1381.35 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   59.745 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -3.55 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Monday made its intraday high of US$18.12/oz and low of US$17.77/oz. Silver settled down by 1.092% at US$17.83/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.70-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.30-16.90 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.60-17.30
S2     16.90
S3     16.25-16.00

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.80-18.00
R2     18.50
R3     18.90-19.20

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.51 Buy
50-DMA   17.79 Buy
100-DMA   16.80 Buy
200-DMA   15.99 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   69.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Monday made an intra‐day high of US$56.57/bbl, intraday low of US$55.22/bbl and settled up by 0.954% to close at US$55.80/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 55.30-52.60 with risk daily closing below 50.40 and targeting 56.00-56.50 and 57.20-58.00. Sell below 56.50-58.70 with stop loss at 58.70; targeting 56.00-55.30-54.95 and 53.90-53.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     55.30
S2     54.95
S3     53.90-53.30

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.00-56.50
R2     57.20
R3     58.00-58.70

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   53.864 Sell
20-DMA   53.93 Sell
50-DMA   55.30 Sell
100-DMA   55.78 Sell
200-DMA   57.23 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   75.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.143 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Monday made an intraday low of US$1.1075/EUR, high of US$1.1105/EUR and settled the day up by 0.170% to close at US$1.1098/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in neutral territory and giving negative crossovers to signal for bearish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1050-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1090-1.1180-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1300. Sell below 1.1090-1.1300 targeting 1.1050-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1050
S2     1.0980-1.0930
S3     1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1090-1.1180
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1250-1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   54.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1043 Buy
50-DMA   1.1034 Buy
100-DMA   1.1128 Sell
200-DMA   1.1200 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   10.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Monday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2803/GBP, high of US$1.2875/GBP and settled the day up by 0.308% to close at US$1.2856/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2920-1.3170 with targets at 1.2840-1.2790-1.2710 and 1.2650-1.2600 stop-loss should be below 1.3000. Buy above 1.2840-1.2510 with targets 1.2920-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840-1.2790
S2     1.2710
S3     1.2650-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2920
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3040-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

63.933

Buy
20-DMA   1.2648 Buy
50-DMA   1.2431 Buy
100-DMA   1.2431 Sell
200-DMA   1.2712 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   29.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.016 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Monday made intra‐day low of JPY108.65/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.03/USD and settled the day up by 0.268% at JPY108.97/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.00-110.70 with risk above 110.00 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30-110.00
R2     110.70
R3     111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   63.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.14 Buy
50-DMA   107.54 Buy
100-DMA   107.56 Buy
200-DMA   109.04 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   86.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.3417 Buy

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