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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian shares napped near multi-month peaks on Thursday while bonds eked out a bounce as reports of delays in sealing a preliminary Sino-U.S. trade deal left investors frustrated at the lack of concrete progress. In early European trades, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up slightly while those for German DAX were flat. London's FTSE futures rose 0.2% Japan's Nikkei dithered either side of flat in very quiet trade, having touched a 13-month top on Wednesday. South Korean stocks eased 0.15% after hitting their highest since May, while Shanghai blue chips lost 0.08%. Reuters reported on Wednesday a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign an interim trade deal could be delayed until December as discussions continue over terms and venue. Among various suggestions was to sign a deal after a scheduled NATO meeting in early December. The dollar's persistent and confounding strength will continue well into next year, and even if a partial U.S.-China trade deal is signed it will at most knock the currency by 1-2% in the immediate aftermath, a Reuters poll found.
  • Renewed hopes the world's two largest economies were taking steps towards ending their 16-month trade war have pushed global stocks close to record peaks and Wall Street to all-time highs. That risk-on attitude has led the U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback's value against other major currencies to post its first monthly loss since June. But it is still up nearly 2% year-to-date. Currency speculators have bought into the optimism and pared their bullish bets on the greenback, taking the total value of net dollar long positions to the lowest in over two months. But that sell-the-dollar trend was not expected to continue, according to analysts in the Oct. 31-Nov. 6 Reuters poll. Nearly two-thirds of 56 analysts who answered an additional question said the dollar's dominance would run for at least another six months, and a quarter expected the currency to remain strong for more than two years. That stands in stark contrast to the start of the year when a majority of analysts were confident the dollar rally was over. What has probably helped the world's reserve currency - and continues to do so - is a U.S. economy that has mostly performed better than its peers and given investors good returns from dollar-denominated assets. Over 40% of 63 analysts said the dollar index would weaken around 1-2% in the immediate aftermath, if a "phase one" trade agreement is signed by the United States and China. Only five respondents predicted a more than 2% loss. Fifteen analysts said there would be no material change to dollar exchange rates, while 16 said the currency would strengthen 1-2%. Just one respondent expected the greenback to gain over 2%. The dollar's better performance has led to investors piling on even more bets in favor of the greenback, making it one of the most overcrowded trades this year. When asked by how much, 17 respondents said it was up to 5% overvalued, and another 17 said 5-10%. The remaining six said over 10%. But dollar-denominated assets were still favoured compared to European ones, which have been underperforming. While the year-ahead euro/dollar forecasts have gone up a sliver to $1.14 from $1.13 predicted last month, they are considerably lower than predictions made at the beginning of the year. In January, the euro was forecast to trade around $1.20 by end-2019, over 8% higher from where it is currently trading and a level not in any analyst forecast for the next 6 months.
  • Oil prices slipped on Thursday in Asia after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. oil inventories rose much more than market expected last week. The EIA said oil stockpiles rose by 7.9 million barrels, compared with expectations from analysts for an increase of about 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.8 million barrels, versus an expectation for a draw of 1.8 million barrels. Distillates inventories fell 622,000 barrels, compared with forecasts for a drop of about 950,000. Also weighing on oil prices today were reports that the biggest producers in OPEC+ aren’t pushing for deeper oil-supply cuts when the group meets next month. Oil prices received some support earlier this week by expectations that China and the U.S. were on the cusp of concluding phase one of their trade deal that would roll back much of the tit-for-tat tariffs. However, reports today said the signing of the deal might have to be delayed until December as discussions continued over terms and venue. Oil fell after a report that the biggest producers in OPEC+ aren’t pushing for deeper oil-supply cuts when the group meets next month. U.S. crude inventories built by 7.93 million barrels last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Gasoline and distillate supplies fell, while stockpiles stored at the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub rose 1.7 million barrels. The U.S. registered its first petroleum trade surplus in over four decades in September as production surged to a record. Oil gained earlier this week on optimism that trade tensions between the U.S. and China are easing, potentially alleviating downward pressure on the global economy. Yet prices remain about 15% below the peak reached in April amid concern that tepid consumption growth and record American shale-oil output will create a new surplus next year. U.S. locations for a Trump-Xi meeting that had been proposed by the White House, including Iowa and Alaska, have been ruled out, a person familiar with the matter said. Locations in Asia and Europe are now being considered instead, the person said, asking not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
7th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,494-1,500 1,513 1,524-1532
Silver-XAG 17.60-17.80 18.10 18.50-18.90
Crude Oil 56.50-57.20 58.00 58.65-59.40
EURO/USD 1.1110-1.1170 1.1200 1.1250-1.1300
GBP/USD 1.2920-1.2990 1.3040 1.3100-1.3180
USD/JPY 108.50-109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
7th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,470 1,464-1,459
Silver-XAG 17.30 16.90-16.25 15.90
Crude Oil 56.00 55.10 54.70-53.90
EURO/USD 1.1060 1.0980 1.0930-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2790 1.2710 1.2650-1.2600
USD/JPY 107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (7th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1494.12/oz and low of US$1482.33/oz. Gold up by 0.492% at US$1490.34/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1489-1459 with risk below 1454, targeting 1500-1509-1524 and 1535-1546. Sell below 1500-1546 keeping stop loss closing above 1546, targeting 1478-1470 and 1466-1459.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,478
S2     1,470
S3     1,464-1,459
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,494-1,500
R2     1,513
R3     1,524-1532

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

47.882

Buy
20-DMA   1494.13 Sell
50-DMA  

1501.02

Sell
100-DMA   1476.22 Buy
200-DMA   1389.98 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   24.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.63/oz and low of US$17.37/oz. Silver settled down by 0.410% at US$17.60/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 17.30-15.70 targeting 17.60-17.80-18.50 and 18.90-19.20; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.60-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 17.30-16.90 and 16.25-16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     17.30
S2     16.90-16.25
S3     15.90

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.60-17.80
R2     18.10
R3     18.50-18.90

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   45.112 Buy
20-DMA   17.68 Buy
50-DMA   17.87 Buy
100-DMA   17.01 Buy
200-DMA   16.08 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   53.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.82/bbl, intraday low of US$56.12/bbl and settled down by 1.541% to close at US$56.34/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.10-53.90 with risk daily closing below 53.90 and targeting 56.50-57.20-58.00 and 58.65-59.40. Sell below 56.50-58.00 with stop loss at 58.20; targeting 56.00-55.10-54.70 and 53.90-53.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     56.00
S2     55.10
S3     54.70-53.90

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     56.50-57.20
R2     58.00
R3     58.65-59.40

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   55.864 Sell
20-DMA   55.05 Sell
50-DMA   55.50 Sell
100-DMA   55.96 Sell
200-DMA   57.33 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   72.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.443 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.1064/EUR, high of US$1.1092/EUR and settled the day down by 0.083% to close at US$1.1064/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.1060-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1110-1.1170-1.1200 and 1.1250-1.1300. Sell below 1.1110-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.1060
S2     1.0980
S3     1.0930-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1110-1.1170
R2     1.1200
R3     1.1250-1.1300

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   48.755 Buy
20-DMA   1.1100 Buy
50-DMA   1.1038 Buy
100-DMA   1.1119 Sell
200-DMA   1.1190 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   22.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2843/GBP, high of US$1.2896/GBP and settled the day down by 0.206% to close at US$1.2854/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2920-1.3170 with targets at 1.2840-1.2790 and 1.2710-1.2650 stop-loss should be below 1.3000. Buy above 1.2840-1.2510 with targets 1.2920-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2500.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2840-1.2790
S2     1.2710
S3     1.2650-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2920-1.2990
R2     1.3040
R3     1.3100-1.3180

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

62.933

Buy
20-DMA   1.2802 Buy
50-DMA   1.2514 Buy
100-DMA   1.2446 Sell
200-DMA   1.2706 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   52.450 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.016 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.53/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.23/USD and settled the day up by 0.328% at JPY109.14/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 108.50-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 107.80-107.00-106.50 and 106.10-105.50. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     108.50-109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   50.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.39 Buy
50-DMA   107.71 Buy
100-DMA   107.56 Buy
200-DMA   109.02 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   18.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.207 Buy

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