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Daily Market Lookup

  • Asian stocks fell on Thursday after soft economic data in China and Japan showed the trade war between Beijing and Washington hitting growth in some of the world's biggest economies. China's industrial production growth slowed sharply in October, with the 4.7% year-on-year rise well below forecasts for 5.4%. Investment growth hit a record low and retail sales also missed expectations. The weak figures also come as market confidence toward a resolution weakens, with a new Reuters poll showing most economists do not expect Washington and Beijing to strike a permanent truce over the coming year Trump offered no update on the progress of negotiations in a policy speech on Tuesday. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that talks had snagged on farm purchases. Meanwhile, the global fallout from the dispute is widening. Data due at 0700 GMT will reveal whether Germany has entered a technical recession, as forecast. Japan's economic growth hit its slowest pace in a year in the third quarter as soft demand knocked exports. Worries about spiraling violence as anti-government protests intensify in Hong Kong have also soured investor sentiment. Protesters paralyzed parts of Hong Kong for a fourth day on Thursday, forcing school closures and blocking highways and other transport links in a marked escalation of unrest in the financial hub. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.8% on Thursday to a fresh one-month low.
  • The U.S. dollar inched up on Thursday in Asia following prepared remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Australian dollar dropped after the release of weak employment reports. Powell, who is testifying in front of Congress, said that while the economy is on track right now, there are risks to the current economic expansion. The USD/JPY pair slipped 0.1% to 108.71. Japan’s Cabinet Office reported on Thursday that the country’s economy grew at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the three months through September. Economists had forecast a 0.9% expansion. Doubts over whether the United States and China will be able to reach a preliminary trade deal helped to lift safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc on Thursday, while pulling the yuan lower. Adding to pressure, Chinese retail sales, industrial output and investment data were weaker than expected, sending the Australian dollar, already knocked by soft local employment data, to a one-month low. U.S.-China trade negotiations have 'hit a snag' over farm purchases, with Beijing not wanting a deal that looks one-sided in favor of the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report came after President Donald Trump said a trade deal with China was "close," but offered no details and warned that he would raise tariffs "substantially" on Chinese goods if there was no deal. An agreement last month between the two economic powers to sign a "phase one" pact to end their trade war boosted optimism in global financial markets, lifting the yuan and other risk-sensitive currencies. The yen hardly budged after Japan's GDP data showed the economy grew an annualized 0.2% in July-September, much below economists' forecast of 0.8%. The unexpectedly downbeat China data highlighted continued pressure on the world's second-largest economy and subsequent risks to global growth. The yuan took the data in its stride, though, staying little changed at 7.0223 yuan per dollar in onshore trade . But it stood off its three-month high of 6.9650 touched on Friday. It was pummeled earlier by weak domestic employment data showing the first fall in payrolls in three years The euro stood little changed at $1.10075 (EUR=), having touched one-month low of $1.0995 in U.S. trade while the dollar index stood not far from one-month high touched in the previous session. U.S. consumer prices jumped by the most in seven months in October, which together with abating fears of a recession, support the Federal Reserve's signal for no further interest rate cuts in the near term. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday told Congress that the negative interest rates sought by Trump aren't appropriate for a U.S. economy with ongoing growth, a strong labor market and steady inflation. A poll carried out for the Daily Telegraph newspaper showed British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives have a healthy 10-point lead over main opposition Labour. One-month implied volatilities of sterling options jumped to 11.4/12.1% from 7.25/7.95% on Wednesday as the instruments start to cover a period after the election.
  • Oil rose on Thursday after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, while comments from an OPEC official about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production growth in 2020 also provided some support. Prices, however, were capped by mixed signs for oil demand in China, the world's biggest crude importer, as industrial output rose more slowly than expected in October, but oil refinery throughput hit the second-highest level ever The Secretary General of the OPEC Mohammad Barkindo said on Wednesday that there would likely be downward revisions of supply going into 2020, especially from United States shale, adding that some U.S. shale oil firms see output growing by only 300,000-400,000 bpd While Barkindo's comments supported oil prices, there is not a clear way for OPEC to forecast oil production outside the group, Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore's OCBC bank said. Barkindo's comments were also in contrast with forecasts by the U.S. EIA on Wednesday that U.S. oil production is on course to hit new records this year and next. The API reported on Wednesday an unexpected drop in crude stockpiles by 541,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8, against analysts' expectations of an increase of 1.6 million barrels. Gasoline and distillates inventories increased, the API data showed. [OPEC and its allies, including Russia, meet on Dec. 5-6 to discuss output policy and production curbs of 1.2 million bpd that have been in place since January with the aim of supporting crude prices. The pact runs to March 2020. Barkindo said on Wednesday it was too early to say if further output cuts would be needed.

 

 
Intraday RESISTANCE LEVELS
14th November 2019 R1 R2 R3
GOLD-XAU 1,478 1,494-1,500 1,520
Silver-XAG 17.30-17.60 17.80 18.10-18.50
Crude Oil 58.00 58.65-59.40 60.00
EURO/USD 1.1020-1.1060 1.1110 1.1170-1.1200
GBP/USD 1.2840-1.2920 1.2990 1.3040-1.3100
USD/JPY 109.30 110.00 110.70-111.30

Intraday SUPPORTS LEVELS
14th November 2019 S1 S2 S3
GOLD-XAU 1,459-1,452 1,442 1,438-1,430
Silver-XAG 16.75-16.25 15.90 15.50
Crude Oil 57.20-56.50 56.00 55.10-54.70
EURO/USD 1.0980 1.0930 .0890-1.0850
GBP/USD 1.2790 1.2710 1.2650-1.2600
USD/JPY 108.50-107.80 107.00 106.50-106.10

Intra-Day Strategy (14th November 2019)
GOLD-XAU Buy on Dips
Silver-XAG Buy on Dips
Crude Oil Neutral to Buy
EUR/USD Neutral to Buy
GBP/USD Neutral to Sell
USD/JPY Neutral to Sell

Gold – XAU

AAFX TRADING

Gold on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$1467.02/oz and low of US$1445.77/oz. Gold up 0.502% at US$1463.29/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, prices are above 20DMA (1506) and breakage below will call for 1400. MACD is above zero line and histograms are decreasing trend and it will bring downward stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region and more upside is expected before it gets stretched. Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving negative crossover to confirm bearish stance for intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 1459-1438 with risk below 1438, targeting 1470-1478 and 1489-1500-1512. Sell below 1470-1512 keeping stop loss closing above 1512, targeting 1459-1452-1442 and 1438-1430.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1,459-1,452
S2     1,442
S3     1,438-1,430
Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1,478
R2     1,494-1,500
R3     1,520

Technical Indicators

Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

40.882

Buy
20-DMA   1485.70 Sell
50-DMA  

1493.17

Sell
100-DMA   1478.37 Buy
200-DMA   1393.16 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   38.621 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.241 Sell

Silver - XAG

AAFX TRADING

Silver on Wednesday made its intraday high of US$17.01/oz and low of US$16.72/oz. Silver settled up by 1.357% at US$16.95/oz.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, silver is sustaining above 50DMA (15.70), breakage below will lead to 15.20. MACD is above zero line and histograms are increasing trend and it will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. RSI is in overbought region, indicating buy signal for now. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold region and giving negative crossover to show downside move for the intraday trade.

Trading Strategy: Buy on Dips

Based on the charts and explanations above, buy above 16.70-15.50 targeting 17.30-17.60-17.80 and 18.50-18.90; stop breakage below 15.60. Sell below 17.30-19.30 with stop loss above 19.50; targeting 16.90-16.25 and 16.00-15.70.

 
Intraday  Support Levels
S1     16.75-16.25
S2     15.90
S3     15.50

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     17.30-17.60
R2     17.80
R3     18.10-18.50

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   39.313 Buy
20-DMA   17.50 Buy
50-DMA   17.64 Buy
100-DMA   17.13 Buy
200-DMA   16.12 Buy
STOCH(5,3)   30.268 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.075 Buy

Oil - WTI

AAFX TRADING

Crude Oil on Wednesday made an intra‐day high of US$57.56/bbl, intraday low of US$56.23/bbl and settled up by 1.048% to close at US$57.35/bbl.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, oil is sustaining above its 200DMA i.e. 56.35 which is a resistance level and breakage above will call for 57.00-58.00. MACD is above zero line and histograms are in increasing mode will bring bullish stance in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought region and giving positive crossover for confirmation of bullish stance; while the RSI is in neutral region and more downside can be expected to reach the oversold region, which is highly probable.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Based on the charts and explanations above; buy above 56.50-53.90 with risk daily closing below 53.90 and targeting 57.20-58.00 and 58.65-59.40. Sell below 57.20-59.40 with stop loss at 59.40; targeting 56.50-56.00-55.10 and 54.70-53.90-53.30.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     57.20-56.50
S2     56.00
S3     55.10-54.70

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     58.00
R2     58.65-59.40
R3     60.00

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   57.638 Sell
20-DMA   55.59 Sell
50-DMA   55.57 Sell
100-DMA   55.94 Sell
200-DMA   57.36 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   65.130 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.537 Sell

EUR/USD

AAFX TRADING

EUR/USD of Wednesday an intraday low of US$1.0994/EUR, high of US$1.1019/EUR and settled the day down by 0.0218% to close at US$1.1006/EUR.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining below 50DMA (1.1048), which become immediate resistance level, break above will target 1.1100. MACD is below zero line but histograms are increasing mode which will bring bullish view. Stochastic is in overbought territory and giving positive crossovers to signal for bullish outlook for intraday. 14D RSI is currently in neutral region and giving no directions to consider right now.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Buy

Buy above 1.0980-1.0850 with risk below 1.0900, targeting 1.1020-1.1060-1.1110 and 1.1170-1.1200. Sell below 1.1060-1.1300 targeting 1.1060-1.0960 and 1.0860-1.0805 with stop-loss at daily closing above 1.1300.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.0980
S2     1.0930
S3     .0890-1.0850

Intraday  Resistance Levels
R1     1.1020-1.1060
R2     1.1110
R3     1.1170-1.1200

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   38.357 Buy
20-DMA   1.1090 Buy
50-DMA   1.1039 Buy
100-DMA   1.1098 Sell
200-DMA   1.1116 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   8.958 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   -0.005 Buy

GBP/USD

AAFX TRADING

GBP/USD on Wednesday made an intra‐day low of US$1.2821/GBP, high of US$1.2861/GBP and settled the day up by 0.047% to close at US$1.2848/GBP.

Technicals in Focus:

On daily charts, prices are sustaining above 200DMA (1.2960) is become major support level. 14-D RSI is currently in neutral region and direction is difficult to predict on RSI bases. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory and giving positive crossover to confirm bearish stance. MACD is above zero line but histograms are increasing lead to downward movement.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Based on the charts and explanations above; sell below 1.2840-1.3170 with targets at 1.2790-1.2710 and 1.2650-1.2600 stop-loss should be below 1.3170. Buy above 1.2790-1.2600 with targets 1.2840-1.2920-1.2990 and 1.3040-1.3100 with stop loss closing below 1.2600.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     1.2790
S2     1.2710
S3     1.2650-1.2600

Intraday Resistance Levels
R1     1.2840-1.2920
R2     1.2990
R3     1.3040-1.3100

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI  

55.933

Buy
20-DMA   1.2873 Buy
50-DMA   1.2605 Buy
100-DMA   1.2455 Sell
200-DMA   1.2700 Sell
STOCH(5,3)   56.450 Sell
MACD(12,26,9)   0.007 Sell

USD/JPY

AAFX TRADING

USD/JPY on Wednesday made intra‐day low of JPY108.64/USD and made an intraday high of JPY109.14/USD and settled the day down by 0.162% at JPY108.81/USD.

Technicals in Focus:

In daily charts, JPY is sustaining above 50DMA (107.84), which is initial support on the daily chart. 14-D RSI is currently in overbought region and chances of downward are expected based on RSI. MACD is above zero line but histograms are in decreasing mode which might lead to downward movement. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and signaling to sell as it has given negative crossover to confirm bearish stance.

Trading Strategy: Neutral to Sell

Sell below 109.30-110.70 with risk above 110.70 targeting 108.50-107.80-107.00 and 106.50-106.10. Long positions above 108.50-105.00 with targets of 108.70-109.30 and 110.00-110.70 with stop below 105.00.

 
Intraday Support Levels
S1     108.50-107.80
S2     107.00
S3     106.50-106.10

INTRADAY RESISTANCE LEVELS
R1     109.30
R2     110.00
R3     110.70-111.30

TECHNICAL INDICATORS
Name   Value Action
14DRSI   60.122 Buy
20-DMA   108.75 Buy
50-DMA   108.08 Buy
100-DMA   107.65 Buy
200-DMA   109.01 Sell
STOCH(9,6)   69.253 Buy
MACD(12,26,9)   0.324 Buy

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